Biden/Booker (D) vs. Trump/Pence (R)

[heatcharger]

Trump at 40-45% approval:

Trump at 45-50% approval:

Pretty simple. I see no other plausible Democrat who could be nominated who has Biden's appeal to the Midwestern WWC, and Booker helps speed up trends in NC but especially GA. Also, if Trump is closer to 50% approval, that means he made some form of inroads among college-educated whites, which puts Minnesota in play and makes GA and NC harder for a Democrat to pick off.

Thoughts? Discuss with your own maps.

[History505]

I could see that as a winning ticket.

[Confused Democrat]

Why is Georgia a swing state in scenario 1 and not Arizona?

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Biden/Booker (D) 279 EV
Trump/Pence (R) 259 EV

I am predicting that the Democrats carry MI, WI, and PA.

The big battlegrounds will be WI, MI, PA, FL, VA, AZ, and maybe NC and GA.

[pbrower2a]

Trump at 40% approval:

At 40% approval at the time of the election, President Trump is at risk of losing states that Republican nominees for President have not lost for a very long time -- perhaps as long ago as 1976, when Jimmy Carter carried most of the South.

[heatcharger]

Why is Georgia a swing state in scenario 1 and not Arizona?

I think Arizona is a harder state to figure out than Georgia, so I just left it as Lean R. I just estimated the ticket, comprised of Obama's VP and a black running mate, would marginally improve black turnout in the South while also expanding upon Clinton's gains in suburban Atlanta.

[TheSaint250]

Not predicting the outcome of the election, but this would be my battleground map:

I think his appeal in the Midwest is really exaggerated, but any somewhat serious Democratic candidate should be able to win MN and MI. If these two states are in doubt on election night, the race will be over very early.

I think Georgia should be lean R and Alaska safe R, but besides that, it looks about right.

[heatcharger]

I think his appeal in the Midwest is really exaggerated, but any somewhat serious Democratic candidate should be able to win MN and MI. If these two states are in doubt on election night, the race will be over very early.

But-but he talks folksy!!

You act like this isn't an important trait.

[Pericles]

Obama won Michigan by 9.5% with 54% of the vote against Mitt Romney(who was from Michigan!) If Biden can recreate the Obama coalition, which included some working-class whites, he can win.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If Trump manages to make inroads with college-educated whites while holding his ground with rural voters, Virginia is a toss-up, and Wisconsin is at least Lean R.

[President Johnson]

Lean Biden.