When will SC vote for a democrat next?

[killertahu22]

I believe South Carolina hasn’t voted for a democrat since carter, but due to their relatively high African American population, they could easily vote democrat under the right circumstances.
My question is, what are those circumstances?

[TML]

The main reason why SC has been a lock for Republicans is that its fastest growing (and therefore most populous) area is the Upstate (i.e. the northwestern part of the state, which is also situated within Appalachia). Republicans routinely win over 60% of this region's votes, which is more than enough to offset Democratic margins in the Midlands and Lowcountry.

IMO, it will likely take a combination of the following in order for a Democratic candidate to win SC:

-Increased minority (African-American and other non-white) turnout
-Depressed white turnout, especially in the Upstate region
-The Democratic candidate being on track to win 400+ EVs nationwide (the last three times SC was decided by less than 10%, which were 1992, 1996, and 2008, the Democratic candidate would have won 503, 492, and 418 EVs, respectively, if the national PV had shifted uniformly nationwide to flip SC)

[Sirius_]

While it is true that the upstate is the fastest growing and most populous region and it does typically vote republican, you're ignoring the fact that the fast growth is being caused by northern and midwesterners moving here, many of whom are democrats.  The upstate is starting to trend D, especially Grenville county which doesn't even vote 60%+ R anymore.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

2052 at the latest, by then climate change will be a big issue. But if the republicans run some libertarian wack job like Ron Paul or Justin Amash who wants an isolationist foreign policy and is totally insane but has no appeal to rural wwc voters and poor white voters causing low turnout among those groups, and black turnout is very high.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

South Carolina would probably be the first solid R state to flip in a Democratic landslide (>370 EV). I'd be willing to bet it goes blue either in 2024 (if Trump serves two terms) or 2028 (if a popular incumbent D is running for reelection against a weak GOP candidate).

[Skill and Chance]

I don't really think this is happening anytime soon.  The "Tennessee" and "Southwest Florida" parts of the state are just too populous and there's no sign of Dem movement with either of those demographics.  MS and LA are better bets IMO. 

[Dr. MB]

Sometime in the 2030s perhaps, if it goes the way of its neighbors.

[Mike Thick]

If 2020 is an absolute drubbing, I wouldn’t say that it’s out of the question. However, I don’t think it flips within the next ten years, at least.

This brings back memories of that brief period when Hillary was winning the entire Eastern Seaboard on 538. Good times.

[Cold War Liberal]

I could see it going democratic circa 2028 if minority turnout is high and it's a good year for Democrats. However, I see the next elections going like this:
2020: Dem win (possibly landslide)
2024: Dem reelected (respectably, but not landslide)
2028: History would indicate Republican but it's too far in the future to say for sure
2032: Good year for Republicans because they either have an incumbent or have been out of office for 12 years and people are ready for change

Under this assumption, 2036 would probably be the first time I could see SC going blue, unless 2020 is some kind of 1964-esque landslide (which I see as unlikely)

2052 at the latest, by then climate change will be a big issue. But if the republicans run some libertarian wack job like Ron Paul or Justin Amash who wants an isolationist foreign policy and is totally insane but has no appeal to rural wwc voters and poor white voters causing low turnout among those groups, and black turnout is very high.

LOL for a second I thought you floated the idea of a 117-year-old Ron Paul running in 2052.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

***HOT TAKE***

2040