For Atlas Republicans: Do you think people are underestimating Trump...again?

[christian peralta]

I mean there a lot of people who believe that because he's doing awful in the polls, he will lose in a landslide, people are very confident that he will not be reelected. This takes me to flashbacks from the 2016 campaign, where this situation also happened and we all know the conclusion. People like Bill Clinton were doing poorly in the polls in the midterm, but they improved and won reelection, others like George H.W. Bush were doing great in the polls, but they ratings started to decline and he went to lose reelection. We are only two years from Election Day 2020, and everything can happen. Do you feel that people are underestimating Trump chances?

[tosk]

i think it's silly to have a firm opinion on much regarding 2020. however I think dems have an edge for now. but people definitely discount trump which is silly, yes.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

yes


We better pray for Bernie sanders as he is the only one that works to bring people together within the liberal movement anymore.

Identity politics has failed us and we need to realize this.

[Grassroots]

Yes. The media is the main parent feeding the dems, telling them BS like "O'Rourke having a chance", and inevitably, "Trump can't win".

[DrScholl]

If anything people are overestimating him on the logic "well, every election will be like 2016". People think Republicans will gain seats in the House this because "well, the polls were wrong in 2016". The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Trump will be an incumbent with a record of erratic behavior and no longer the "outsider" that isn't a politician. After 2016 the last thing the opposition will do is underestimate Trump.

[uti2]

If anything people are overestimating him on the logic "well, every election will be like 2016". People think Republicans will gain seats in the House this because "well, the polls were wrong in 2016". The difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Trump will be an incumbent with a record of erratic behavior and no longer the "outsider" that isn't a politician. After 2016 the last thing the opposition will do is underestimate Trump.

Depending on how the Midterms go, Trump might try some triangulation and some of his forgotten campaign policies.

[DataGuy]

I'm not under any delusion that Trump will just cruise to victory, but of course the Democrats would be foolish to underestimate him. Underestimation has been the essence of his past three years in politics. He couldn't win the primary, he couldn't win the general, he could never have a successful economy. Yet he's done all three.

Yes, his poll numbers are bad. But the importance of that fact will depend on who Democrats nominate. If Trump can find a line of attack that sticks and crash his opponent's favorability like he did to Clinton, he might pull another 2016. Potential candidates are also more popular when people don't know much about them. In contrast, I can't imagine Trump's numbers dropping much lower than they already are, unless there's an unlikely recession or something.

As long as the economy holds up, I think he has a good chance. Although his overall numbers aren't great, the majority of people actually do approve of his performance on the economy, which is invariably one of the most important issues named by voters. The Democrats' problem is that they spend most of their time moralizing on things that voters really don't care about compared to their pocketbooks. They might agree with Democrats on the more trivial matters, but that does the Democrats no good if voters don't cast their ballot based on those issues.

Overall, the Democrats need a much better message than "Trump is awful and even though the economy isn't all that bad we still need to fix it with revolutionary expensive ideas."

[IceSpear]

I'm not under any delusion that Trump will just cruise to victory, but of course the Democrats would be foolish to underestimate him. Underestimation has been the essence of his past three years in politics. He couldn't win the primary, he couldn't win the general, he could never have a successful economy. Yet he's done all three.

Yes, his poll numbers are bad. But the importance of that fact will depend on who Democrats nominate. If Trump can find a line of attack that sticks and crash his opponent's favorability like he did to Clinton, he might pull another 2016. Potential candidates are also more popular when people don't know much about them. In contrast, I can't imagine Trump's numbers dropping much lower than they already are, unless there's an unlikely recession or something.

As long as the economy holds up, I think he has a good chance. Although his overall numbers aren't great, the majority of people actually do approve of his performance on the economy, which is invariably one of the most important issues named by voters. The Democrats' problem is that they spend most of their time moralizing on things that voters really don't care about compared to their pocketbooks. They might agree with Democrats on the more trivial matters, but that does the Democrats no good if voters don't cast their ballot based on those issues.

Overall, the Democrats need a much better message than "Trump is awful and even though the economy isn't all that bad we still need to fix it with revolutionary expensive ideas."

Trump didn't crash Hillary's favorability, the media and Comey did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the Dems are winning in states that matter, MI, WI and Pa

[pbrower2a]

I'm not under any delusion that Trump will just cruise to victory, but of course the Democrats would be foolish to underestimate him. Underestimation has been the essence of his past three years in politics. He couldn't win the primary, he couldn't win the general, he could never have a successful economy. Yet he's done all three.

He is a known commodity, and he is awful. He won in Republican primaries because he posed as 'not really a politician', relying upon his alleged business acumen to establish credibility. Republicans have frequently said that they would rather have a businessman as President, and they nominated him as President. He won by insulting people that many dislike or who are thought to get special breaks, like the handicapped, and by displaying rudeness and vulgarity that sparked excitement among voters tired of prissy politics. As a demagogue he could promise what nobody else could. The economy? It is the Obama recovery, one not depending upon a financial bubble that usually implodes. Obama did not start a bubble.

Incumbent politicians must run on their records, let they lose running away from their records. If their records are failures, then they lose. Mediocre incumbents usually win, but awful one don't. The Trump Presidency is rich in scandals -- offensive scandals. He has lost a majority of possible voters by attacking their sensibilities, and he will have a tough time paring those losses. Check the disapproval numbers.       

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Trump won the Presidency by getting the right votes, which is a credit to his strategy. But he has picked up no significant constituency since the election except for plutocrats who found his demagoguery distasteful but are thankful for the tax cuts. But that is not enough to swing even the closest states that he lost (Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire).

The environmentalist vote (Trump said little about the environment) will be enough to take Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin away from him. Those states have lots of outdoor enthusiasts, and Trump will lose those. He can hurt the farm vote with his tariffs and trade war. He does not have to lose a majority of the farm vote to lose such a state as Iowa. He has given Rural America a recession due to falling farm revenues. Tax cuts for city-slicker heirs and executives will not help Trump in rural America.   
   

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A strong-enough economy is usually good enough, but all the gains have gone to the economic elites. America is a landlord's paradise and little more under Trump.  Corporate bankruptcies are up. Whether I get some dignity despite a handicap matters greatly to me, and a President who mocks autism and crippling conditions makes me a political activist. In 2018 I want to gut his power so that he must be responsible to the People. In 2020 I want him gone as President.

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Donald Trump is cruel and corrupt, and those aspects of him offend a majority of Americans. Maybe he can win re-election if he loses by 60-40 margins in twenty states and wins everything else  by bare-to-usual margins elsewhere, but that sort of distribution of votes in which he loses 52-48 in the popular vote but gets 280 electoral votes just isn't going to happen. Americans dislike the aristocratic plutocracy under which they live, and Democrats can attack the heirs and executives all they want in 2020.

Corruption is not good for winning re-election.   

[°Leprechaun]

If you think that he can't win in 2020, yes, you are underestimating him. We might have a better idea if the Democrats do well in the midterms (do as expected, or beat expectations). A good showing in 2018 is not a guarantee for 2020, but it could be a reason to be optimistic.

Right now, it's too soon to predict 2020.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Absolutely. I also feel Bernie's chances for the Democratic nomination is underrated. Everyone at MSNBC thinks the future is Kamala Harris.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well most posters have said the election will be close so no as the election very likely will be close

[Progressive Pessimist]

Right now, it's too soon to predict 2020.