The 2024 Presidential Election: A week by week timeline

[CookieDamage]

Gallup Polls Giftgate

Do you think Sen. Joanne Hurt forgot to disclose gifts received from the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain?

Yes: 13%
No: 71%
Unsure: 16%

Do you think Sen. Joanne Hurt purposefully chose to not disclose gifts received from the Deputy PM?

Yes: 72%
No: 11%
Unsure: 17%

Do you think that Sen. Joanne Hurt's failure to disclose such gifts is a major issue?

Yes: 62%
No: 38%

Does this issue affect your vote?

Yes: 46%
No: 40%
Undecided: 14%

[CookieDamage]

Marist: Short surges amid Giftgate

May 23 - 26 (1200 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 43% (-3)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 45 (+4)
Steven DiFalco (presumptive nominee) (CDP) - 10% (-1%)

Quinnipiac: Short Up

May 22 - May 25 (800 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 40% (-4)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 47% (+4)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 11%(=)

NYT/Siena: Short rises, Hurt maintains narrow lead

May 20 - May 24 (1000 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 41% (-2)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 39% (+3)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 17% (-2)

CNN: Hurt drops, Short rises after Giftgate reporting

May 21 - 25 (1125 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39% (-3)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 47% (+4)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 12% (+2)

[CookieDamage]

Current polling map as of May 5, 2024

Red - States where Short has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Blue - States where Hurt has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Orange - States where Falco (presumptive nominee) has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Gray - Competitive states where no candidate has more than a 5% lead across a 5 poll average.

[CookieDamage]

Quinnipiac: Short gains lead in in New York

A new poll from Quinnipiac poll has shown home state Governor Veronica Short gaining the lead in the state, leading by 3, earning 45% of the Empire State vote to Hurt's 41%.

The Quinnipiac poll breaks down the results further.

Manhattan: Short +3
Brooklyn: Short +10
Queens: Short +1
Bronx: Short +13
Staten Island: Short +18
New York City total: Short +7

Westchester: Hurt +7
Suffolk: Hurt +24
Nassau: Hurt +10
Upstate: Short +10
West New York: Short +8

By median household income
Under 50,000: Short +18
50,000 to 75,000: Short +9
75,000 to 100,000: Hurt +3
100,000 to 125,000: Hurt +15
125,000+: Hurt +17

By education
High School: Short +18
Associates or some college: Short +14
Bachelor's: Hurt +1
Master's: Hurt +7
Doctorate: Hurt +21

[CookieDamage]

FOX Poll: Hurt Leads in Texas

San Antonio, May 20

Sen. Joanne Hurt has maintained a healthy lead in Texas according to a recent Fox news poll. Texas, traditionally an American Labor stronghold, has drifted away from the ALP in recent years due to the loss of some working class whites to the Christian Democratic Party. Furthermore, the growth of suburbs in the Dallas, Houston, and Austin areas have padded NNL leads in the state. However, the ALP still relies on Hispanics, urban voters, and East Texans to remain somewhat competitive in the Lone Star state.

Also a factor is the Christian Democratic Party, which siphons votes away from both parties. Traditionally a party of rural evangelicals, the CDP has since taken a turn towards southern evangelical suburbanites who maintain conservative and religious social positions but take less of a laborist view towards economics. The result over the past few cycles has been that the CDP has taken more votes from the NNL in places like Ellis, Johnson, and Kaufman counties, exurban areas on the Dallas-Fort Worth periphery. Short's socially moderate positions appeal to many inner suburban working voters. Meanwhile, the outer and more affluent suburbs are a battleground between the NNL and CDP.

The poll in particular shows Hurt with a six point lead. Hurt leads Veronica Short 41-35 with the CDP's Steven DiFalco capturing 16% of the vote. 8% were undecided. The poll also asked voting intentions of all decided voters.

For Hurt:
Definitely vote for Hurt - 48%
Likely vote for Hurt - 39%
Leaning vote for Hurt - 13%

For Short:
Definitely vote for Short - 53%
Likely vote for Short - 41%
Leaning vote for Short - 6%

For DiFalco:
Definitley vote for DiFalco - 26%
Likely vote for DiFalco - 35%
Leaning vote for DiFalco - 39%

These results point to a large amount of soft support for DiFalco, considering the bulk of respondents who chose him are only leaning towards him. Meanwhile, both Short and Hurt have a stronger base of supporters who definitely plan to vote for them in November.

[CookieDamage]

Hurt Veepstakes Upended by Giftgate

Sen. Marianne Ioannidis

May 25, New York.

Prior to May 17, Sen. Joanne Hurt's VP shortlist was mostly composed of Southern politicos that would bring geographic balance to the ticket, considering Hurt is from suburban Minnesota. Such names included Sen. Mark Wynn (GA), Fmr. Sen. Pat McCullough (NC), Fmr. Gov. Sam Ruiz (TX), and businessman Arron Fuller (SC). However, since the revelation that Hurt accepted nearly $1000 worth of gifts from the Spanish government and failed to disclose them, her calculus has changed.

Now, other names have risen to the top of the list. One name includes Daniel Stevenson, an eight-term congressman from Michigan who notably served as Chair of the Financial Services committee and later served as Special Counsel on Ethics to President Carey after his retirement from the House. Stevenson remains a popular figure in Michigan and would possibly cut into Short's margin in the state and could also shore up NNL support in nearby Wisconsin and Illinois.

Rep. Daniel Stevenson

Another name on the list is Marianne Ioannidis, New York state's junior senator and previous public advocate of New York City, serving as the city's top watchdog. Ioannidis clashed with Veronica Short several times during her tenure as public advocate until she was elected to the Senate in 2020. Choosing Ioannidis could possibly increase Hurt's support in swingy New York City and stop the state's recent movement to its very own governor. However, a two-woman ticket might be a tall order for a historic match between two female candidates.

The recent VP shakeup has attracted both admiration and ire. Dean Michael, NNL congressman from Pennsylvania, said the following. "Hurt is looking at all her options and trying to find who she believes will be the best partner in government. I think it's very good she is looking at people who are experienced in public advocacy, accountability, and ethics. It shows that she has the judgment needed to run a winning campaign."

Others have been less flattering. Chris Wisnewski, ALP Senator from Missouri and a possible veep pick himself for Short, had this to say. "Hurt is seeing her numbers fall and is getting worried, so naturally she'll go for the cleanest and most ethical politicians she can find to clean up her image. It's somewhat funny that a Senator accused of corruption is now trying to tap an anti-corruption politician to be her running mate." He said. "I don't think it will work on voters."

An anonymous NNL staffer working for a Senate campaign was not as friendly either. "This just looks desperate and way too on the nose. Hurt should have remained on track with her VP search. Now she looks indecisive and way too prone to shifts in public opinion. She's lucky this ordeal is happening in May and not October."

With the NNL convention and nominating process not until late July, there is still plenty of time for the Senator to choose.

[CookieDamage]

Generic Congressional Ballot: NNL Coalition Leads by 4

A new poll by NYT/Ipsos has shown that the New National Liberal Coalition leads the generic ballot by 4 points, receiving 44% of the vote to the American Labor Coalition's 40%. The remaining 16% went to the Christian Democrats. NYT/Ipsos' last poll had the NNL coalition up 6, 45 to 39.

In the NNL coalition is also the pro-business, suburban aligned MiddleGround (MG). The NNL-MG bloc hold 246 seats in the House. The American Labor Coalition is composed of both the ALP as well as the Social Democratic Party, which combined hold 185 seats.

The NNL-MG coalition has been the majority faction in congress since 2017, when it was swept into power alongside NNL nominee Charles Carey who won the 2016 election. In 2018, the bloc grew their majority to 277 seats and were able to pass a number of Carey's legislative priorities. However, after the onset of COVID and its subsequent economic downturn, the bloc lost 11 seats in that November election as Carey narrowly won re-election with a slightly smaller victory than he had achieved four years prior. In 2022, the bloc suffered another loss with 20 seats flipping to the ALP-SDP coalition. However, they still maintained control over the House.

This current lead is much reduced than what the NNL-MG bloc usually sees around mid-spring before an election. In 2022, the bloc led the GCB by 5 on April 30. In May 2020, they led the GCB by 7, and in 2018 they led the GCB by 14.

In 2020 and 2022 the bloc saw these leads gradually diminish. By election day in 2022 the NNL-MG bloc led the GCB aggregate by 3.2% and won the popular vote by 2.6% despite losing twenty seats. In 2020, they led the November GCB aggregate by 5.6% and won the popular vote by 3.1%. Only in 2018 did the NNL-MG bloc maintain a healthy polling lead that matched their ultimate win. That year, they earned 11.2% of the vote.

If one were to apply the trend to this year's election, the result would be an evaporated NNL coalition lead and a popular vote win by the ALP. However, with still such a tall majority on their hands, it may not result in the NNL-MG bloc losing their majority.