On Earth 2, how is Hillary Clinton's re-election campaign going?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

And how is the Republican primary shaking up?

[Kleine Scheiße]

Former Oregon State Senate Majority Leader John Lim (R-OR) would likely be the presumptive nominee by now as the only candidate left standing after blowouts in New Hampshire, California, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina.

[Catalyst138]

Jeb! comes back to win all 50 states in the primary and become the strongest presidential candidate ever created.

[brucejoel99]

I'd expect Hillary to be on the path of becoming a one-termer. Her true political positions are left enough that she wouldn't have gotten GOP support but not progressive enough to keep more hardcore progressives on her side. Couple that with the unpopular hawkish foreign policy that she embraces, the inevitable midterm blowback against her, & the likelihood of a cyclical downturn happening anyway (regardless of whether or not it was coronavirus-induced), Hillary would likely be bogged down by gridlock, a foreign quagmire of some kind, & a bad economy to reckon with (& remember: if she wasn't a good enough politician to defeat Donald Trump, then I doubt she would've been able to navigate a hostile Congress or overcome party fatigue in 2020). So yeah, I wouldn't be expecting another 8 years of "Madam President," but at least she'd be remembered as the first female President, even if an ultimately unsuccessful leader.

As for the GOP primary, probably something along the lines of Pence vs. Cruz vs. Haley vs. Kasich.

[Inmate Trump]

Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham would be running.  Probably several more.

Things would not be going well with Hillary, though the pandemic response would've been mostly stalwart.  She never would've fired the pandemic response unit or cut the CDC's budget.

[538Electoral]

Not good I'm assuming.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Assuming Trump narrowly lost the Rust Belt in 2016, this is when the floodgates break.

[GP270watch]

How did I end up on the wrong side of space time continuum ripple. This bizarro universe is strange and getting stranger man.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Poorly.  Fox News has half of America convinced she personally invented the coronavirus.

[jake_arlington]

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Assuming Trump narrowly lost the Rust Belt in 2016, this is when the floodgates break.

Nah come on, the Trump surge was straight outta the blue back in 2016.

I think that Clinton would not make the same mistake and take WI for granted this time around, for instance.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Assuming Trump narrowly lost the Rust Belt in 2016, this is when the floodgates break.

Nah come on, the Trump surge was straight outta the blue back in 2016.

I think that Clinton would not make the same mistake and take WI for granted this time around, for instance.

I’m not sure about that. If she wins the Presidency then chances are she carried WI, and thus would have no lesson to learn until it once again is too late.

[Agonized-Statism]

Nah come on, the Trump surge was straight outta the blue back in 2016.

I think that Clinton would not make the same mistake and take WI for granted this time around, for instance.

Regardless, those are some of the first states to flip in the event that Republicans expand the map, which is likely in this hypothetical due to voter fatigue, coronavirus, recession, possibly some new Middle Eastern intervention, and a lack of charisma on Clinton's part. She may even get a progressive primary challenger for failing to implement the Green New Deal in the background of the Saudi-Russian price war and instability in the oil market. I know people have definite opinions on how her presidency would have turned out, but that's my scenario. I'm not gonna, say, give her opponent Colorado and Virginia but take the Rust Belt because that wouldn't happen. The demographics aren't there.

[jake_arlington]

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Assuming Trump narrowly lost the Rust Belt in 2016, this is when the floodgates break.

Nah come on, the Trump surge was straight outta the blue back in 2016.

I think that Clinton would not make the same mistake and take WI for granted this time around, for instance.

I’m not sure about that. If she wins the Presidency then chances are she carried WI, and thus would have no lesson to learn until it once again is too late.

Margin narrowing from 7 or 8 to like 1% percentage-points instead would make it a top-tier state on the map and officially in play, basically high-end targeted, and...by (both of) the candidates this time around now.

[Agonized-Statism]

Margin narrowing from 7 or 8 to like 1% percentage-points instead would make it a top-tier state on the map and officially in play, basically high-end targeted, and...by (both of) the candidates this time around now.

Exactly, which the Republican then carries due to a Democratic collapse.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It is an out-and-out civil war between Donald Trump supporters and the GOP establishment.

Trump has spent the past three years building a media brand like nothing ever seen before in politics. He is a ratings darling on Fox News, and his YouTube channel has 50 million subscribers. Every move Hillary has made, he responds with a fiery rant that goes viral. His followers are convinced the election was stolen from him, and they are hellbent on sending him to the White House.

John Kasich won Iowa, but Trump followed with victories in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Just as panic was setting in among the party elite, Paul Ryan scored some key Super Tuesday victories, nearly pulling even with Trump in the delegate count. Kasich, Rubio, and Nikki Haley dropped out the next day and endorsed Ryan. Ted Cruz, way behind delegates, refused to quit after just barely edging out Ryan in Texas.

After Second Tuesday, Trump and Ryan are tied for delegates, with Ted Cruz using every procedural method at his disposal to win enough delegates to prevent an outright majority and force a brokered convention.

President Clinton looks like the weakest incumbent in years.

Hillary Clinton's problem is that she is extremely unpopular with those who oppose her, and only mildly popular with her base of support. Her polling averages right now:

45% Strongly disapprove
15% Disapprove
30% Approve
10% Strongly approve

Even in years when the stock market is roaring to 20% annual gains, for some reason Hillary is never given credit. Several Vox and Atlantic pieces have been written about the implicit sexism of this. Now that the market is in freefall, everyone does blame Hillary.

A primary challenge by Bernie Sanders didn't amount to much, but Bernie supporters insist the primaries are rigged for Clinton, and #IWontVoteForHerAgain and #RevolutionOrNothing have been trending among the far left for months now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Alex Jones, Sean Hannity, and Donald Trump would probably push the conspiracy theory that the CDC engineered the virus on Hillary's direct orders as a pretext to declare martial law and cancel the election.

[bagelman]

Important reminder: We are Earth 2 from the perspective of OTL 2016. Clinton won on Earth 1.

But Clinton wouldn't be doing so hot.

I could imagine Trump 2020 as Bernie 2020: does well in early states, but when the establishment consolidates around a single figure, he loses every 1v1 contest. After all, Trump lost against Clinton, and Republicans can't take the risk that he'll just lose again. Who the Republicans will end up nominating is hard to say, as it won't be Cruz, Bush, or Rubio, and probably nobody else who ran in 2016. 2020 will have many very high profile Republicans vying to defeat Clinton.

In the senate, R's gain FL, MO, ND, IN, MI, OH, PA, WV, WI, MT, and MN-Special while holding AZ and NV. R+11.

[Politician]

Not well. 2018 Senate Results:

2018 Governor Rresults:

Some party-supported conservative such as Paul or Ryan is the likely nominee with Trump having collapsed on Super Tuesday.

[BigVic]

John Kasich, Mike Pence, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley etc will be the GOP frontrunner. Trump also runs, as an independent as well as Sanders

Hillary will be primaried by Gabbard.

In the General it will be Kasich/Rubio vs Clinton/Kaine vs Trump/Sessions and Sanders/Gabbard. Cue electoral college mayhem when the election is thrown to the House. An unprecedented recall election is held between Kasich/Rubio and Clinton/Kaine after the HoR fails to break the electoral deadlock.

[jake_arlington]

snipped:

Trump still runs in that primary and ends up winning then, tbh.

As for the Senate I think, they should carry a bunch of states swept along with them in a historic wave: the NJ, VA, MN, MS specials too, of course, will go their way. And most definitely reach a supermajority mark, perhaps even achieve the vaunted peak of 70 seats as well.

Again, however, her administration likely would not end up being nearly as popular as Obama's disastrously doomed one proved out to be, quite frankly, in the end. She also would not far nearly as well as Trump has done in the irl world, going as he did with the GOP midterm's turnout advantage overall and coupled of course also to give and have their enthusiastic fan base of die-hard core supporters, along with voting people (to show up, and) who would never abandon him in terms of the turnout ot persuasion games either, no matter what, at all.