Future Conflict Predictions

[Kevin]

I'm starting another conflict prediction thread. Note can we please have only serious predictions. 

[Citizen James]

Ok, leaving out local skirmishes, 'wars' against orginized groups with no specific national identity (war on al queda, war on the kkk), and wars on methodologies (war on terrorism, war on crime, war on enviromental destruction) - limiting it only to conflicts with major players having defined nations and giving a 'dead reconing' (i.e. guess) as to the likelyhood..

U.S  v Iran (40%)  There has been some noise about an invasion  of Iran, and of possibly  using nukes.  With most administrations I  would tend to write this off as mere rumor and it's refusal to deny the possibility as mere gamesmanship, but every time I think Bush couldn't possibly do something that idiotic, he suprises me.  The likely short term result would be an absolute demonization of the US throughout the middle east, a distancing from our  allies, and a small boost  to Bush's domestic popularity ratings (decisive actions play better than good policy  with a portion of the electorate).  Over the long term, oil prices  would likely rise, the Iraq  war would become a regional  conflict, and several of our regional allies (such as Egypt) would be forced to cut ties or risk  civil war.

Chinese  civil war (25%).  The regime  is huge, corrupt, and at risk to sag under it's own weight.  In addition, there is a sizable disparity of males to females because of gender selection (much higher male  birth rate, a higher rate of female infant mortality), which is a recipie for trouble later on. 

The third Iran/Iraq war.  (20%)  Using the 'Bush docrtine' of preventive warfare, Iran charges into Iraq on the assumption that they are going to get nuked anyway, so they might as well get in the first strike.   

The Saudi-Israeli war. (15%  Having spread the seeds of extremism by encouaging wahibism for decades, the royal house is deposed, followed by a  strike on Israel and a call for international jihad.

The war of Taiwan (15%) The hardliners in the PRC finally get their way and invade.  The human cost is enourmous, especially since the US most likely gets involved.

The sino-indian war (10%), rather than rush after a casualty filled sea invasion, the huge ground forces overwhelm the nearest  large scale nation which is ripe for the picking.

The pakistan-india war (10%) cooler heads and MAD fail, and they fight it out, possibly with nukes.

The second Korean war (10%)  Kim Il decides to go  on the offensive.

The sino-korean  war (5%) China decides Kim il is too insane, and believes the west  won't stop them taking out  this trouble maker, and charges in from the north.

The russio-japanese war (2%) there has been some pressure  between the two nations for a long time over disputed territory.  Stranger things have happened.

The second American civil war (1%).  There seem to  be some fundemental ideologial  differences between some of the more  partisan groups - particularly between the ideas of radical fundementalism and mainstream secularism.  Not too likely, but I wouldn't completely write it off either.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Well, that depends on your definition.

Wars tend to occur where on party is totalitarian and move to seize assets of a neighbor.

There are a number of countries in Africa that fit that category.

Venezuela under Castro's stooge has been threatening Columbia.

Iran may well attack Iraq.

Communist China has several tempting targets.

North Korea could attack several countries.