Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[All Along The Watchtower]

Washington Post: Russia has gained more land in one month (April to May 2024), than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive (June to December 2023)

The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/russia-ukraine-front-line-gains/

Even though Russian sources have said this week that their Troops may have been slowed down by UAF reinforcement, footage clearly indicates that Ukraine is unable to put together a competent defense along the Kharkiv directions, and they expect another spearhead into Sumy.  Faster Russian gains along the entire front is expected at this point, and mappers can't keep up with the changes that occurred in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.  I haven't seen any consistent images or videos of Ukraine inflicting heavy losses on Russia.  None.  I don't even know if they can do it anymore. Meanwhile, the losses Ukraine is suffering on the Kharkiv front are completely unsustainable, and they're defense. They literally cannot move armored vehicles, tanks, or equipment into areas without it getting creamed by drones, planes, or missiles.  They can't even place artillery or anti-aircraft systems outside of Kharkiv City.

Russia has Ukraine on the Ropes.  It's not hyperbole.  It's reality.  They just need one more spearhead through/towards Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, or Velyka to achieve victory in Donetsk, as well as a collapse of defensive lines protecting Luhansk from the South. 

This is certainly not the worst advertisement for a NATO military intervention.

[Woody]

Russian telegram: "Today, the city of Kharkov is within reach of all types of artillery of the Russian Armed Forces."

https://t.me/condottieros/3626

[Woody]

Perpetua and Deepstate's maps have the Russians fighting within Liptsy's boundaries. The battle for the town has started. Back in 2022 when the town was under Russian control it was one of the staging areas for artillery shelling of Kharkiv City and it's outskirts:

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.211132&lng=36.431351&z=13&d=19860&c=1&l=0

https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/50.2163/36.4430

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1791888739343429877?s=46
Czech shells are finally coming in

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

A police officer and a volunteer help a Vovchansk resident evacuate to Kharkiv due to Russian military strikes near the town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, May 17, 2024.

Ukraine accused Russia of potential war crimes Saturday, saying their shelling targeted civilians in residential areas of two cities in northeastern Ukraine.

In the first case, a Russian airstrike wounded six people, including two teens and a child in the city of Kharkiv.

In the second case, Russian shelling in Vovchansk, a town 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from the Russian border, killed a 60-year-old woman and injured three other civilians. A 59-year-man also was injured in the village of Ukrainske, they said.

Thousands of civilians have been killed or injured since Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Moscow denies targeting civilians.

Russia said its forces shot down a Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile on Saturday. A similar missile launched last week on the Russian border town of Belgorod caused the collapse of an apartment building, killing at least 15 people.

Fierce battles continue along the now-longer front line of Ukraine.A police officer and a volunteer help a Vovchansk resident evacuate to Kharkiv due to Russian military strikes near the town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, May 17, 2024.

VOA News

Complete barbarians.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1792146861643489523?s=12
https://twitter.com/UAControlMap/status/1792106148587344228
https://twitter.com/lxsummer1/status/1792154473109901782?s=12
The atacms baby 😬🔥

[Storr]

"A fascinating new poll by Levada. Asked if they would support ending the war if Putin decided to do so, 71% of Russian respondents agree (21% are opposed). Asked if they would support ending the war while returning the annexed territories to Ukraine, 30% agree (60% are opposed).

Considering the challenges of conducting polling in Russia, I find it quite amazing that 30% are in favor of returning to the status quo ante (I imagine to Feb 2022, not to pre-2014). On the other hand, 60% want to fight on if peace meant losing the annexed territories.

None of this actually means much in terms of the Kremlin's policy. I imagine that if asked if they wanted  war in Feb. 2022, a healthy majority of Russians would have said "this is insane". And yet Putin chose war on their behalf.

But on the whole, this suggests a more nuanced picture of where we are with Russia than most people realize."

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1791648791583449370

[Woody]

Russian telegram:

⚡️It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces crossed the Volchya River and entered the southern part of Volchansk

https://t.me/ukraina_ru/201291

[Meclazine for Israel]

Meanwhile in Ukraine

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C4aSo0nrmnO/

[Woody]

Bulgarian President Radev now calls Ukrainian victory over Russia "impossible". Urges peace talks between both countries. In his words "political efforts for peace rather than weapons"

Details: Radev stated that the continuation of the war is catastrophic for all sides.

Quote: "Every day that this war continues is disastrous for Ukraine, Russia and all of us. This inevitably affects all elections – in Europe, in the USA, and everywhere in the world. We will choose in this and the next election between war and peace. Every citizen is obliged to understand this."

"It is unacceptable to present the continuation of the war and the impossible victory over Russia as the only possible solution," Radev noted.

He warned that if the war continues, Ukraine will become a "demographically devastated country, with completely destroyed infrastructure, industry, production, and this will have extremely serious consequences not only for Ukraine but also for the whole of Europe".

Radev called for political efforts for peace rather than weapons provision, "With weapons, without weapons – we are going to a similar outcome. We have to realise that. The difference will be thousands of human casualties and a devastated country (Ukraine) for which recovery we will have to pay" he pointed out, adding that "it is inevitable".

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/20/7456583/

[Hindsight was 2020]

So it seems the newest change in Belousov’s MOD is to lie even more shamelessly about the front than they did before. In the past few days they lied about taking over Robotyne, Bilohorivka, Krynky, and southern Vovchansk
https://t.me/officer_alex33/2832
https://t.me/officer_alex33/2842
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19530

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/gettylegion/status/1792629957572640943?s=12
Kraken is loose 🦑 😬

[It’s so Joever]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

Immediately after Russia withdraws we provide a complete security guarantee to Ukraine and send NATO troops in. If Putin wants to try a round two he can have it.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

Immediately after Russia withdraws we provide a complete security guarantee to Ukraine and send NATO troops in. If Putin wants to try a round two he can have it.

How are they going to withdraw? Because they choose to freely without conditions? That's fantasyland. Because Ukraine will expel them out militarily? That's fantasyland as well for different reasons unless a few things drastically change.

Again, our public goals for this war of complete Russian withdrawal are completely out of step with the current state of war. Since they retook Kherson, Ukrainian offensives have effectively accomplished nothing.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Washington Post: Russia has gained more land in one month (April to May 2024), than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive (June to December 2023)

The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/russia-ukraine-front-line-gains/

Even though Russian sources have said this week that their Troops may have been slowed down by UAF reinforcement, footage clearly indicates that Ukraine is unable to put together a competent defense along the Kharkiv directions, and they expect another spearhead into Sumy.  Faster Russian gains along the entire front is expected at this point, and mappers can't keep up with the changes that occurred in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.  I haven't seen any consistent images or videos of Ukraine inflicting heavy losses on Russia.  None.  I don't even know if they can do it anymore. Meanwhile, the losses Ukraine is suffering on the Kharkiv front are completely unsustainable, and they're defense. They literally cannot move armored vehicles, tanks, or equipment into areas without it getting creamed by drones, planes, or missiles.  They can't even place artillery or anti-aircraft systems outside of Kharkiv City.

Russia has Ukraine on the Ropes.  It's not hyperbole.  It's reality.  They just need one more spearhead through/towards Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, or Velyka to achieve victory in Donetsk, as well as a collapse of defensive lines protecting Luhansk from the South.  

This is certainly not the worst advertisement for a NATO military intervention.

As if this group of leaders had the spines. Yeah, I'm super gung-ho to go to war with Justin Trudeau, Rishi Sunak, and Olaf Scholz all on my side and their governments' expertise keeping their militaries in A+ condition the past 30 years.

Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore.

This alongside the Gaza conflict is exposing that the post-Cold War world is becoming dead (a more academic term is rules-based or liberal international order). That benefits some countries. It harms others, including the U.S. Biden right now is effectively a reactionary trying to keep the post-Cold War world operating. Meanwhile economically him and Trump together are helping to kill that world by being America First protectionists.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1792835039119454341?t=lwy_3fOKVou-KY46n...
With Girkin gone it is up to Wargonzo to be the doomer lol

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1792912049749565862

[Woody]

Yesterday was Zelensky's last day of his official term. Him staying in power is now from here on out due to no elections during martial law, per the Constitution of Ukraine.

I find it interesting they can change governors and commanders of the army and intelligence, but seemingly not President?  In theory, out of courtesy Zelensky could step down and let his PM becoming Acting President, as a way to disprove the claims of Ukraine becoming authoritarian.

[Storr]

"New piece from Kharkiv, w new details on initial phase of Russian offensive: they aimed to partially encircle Kharkiv & put pressure on Ukrainian units east of Pechenihy reservoir. Op, supposedly planned May 15th-16th, was brought forward by nearly a week."

Reasons for bringing forward offensive unclear. But source speculated 3 factors. 1) Emotions. In early May, Ukraine killed son of Russian general in charge of offensive, 2) Russia spotted/knew about weakness in fortifications. 3) window of opportunity b4 F16s + weapons deliveries"

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1792759883189698712

[Open Source Intelligence]

"New piece from Kharkiv, w new details on initial phase of Russian offensive: they aimed to partially encircle Kharkiv & put pressure on Ukrainian units east of Pechenihy reservoir. Op, supposedly planned May 15th-16th, was brought forward by nearly a week."

Reasons for bringing forward offensive unclear. But source speculated 3 factors. 1) Emotions. In early May, Ukraine killed son of Russian general in charge of offensive, 2) Russia spotted/knew about weakness in fortifications. 3) window of opportunity b4 F16s + weapons deliveries"

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1792759883189698712

ISW reporting on the same piece.

The Russian military command reportedly initially planned that Russian forces would quickly make significant advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, but the limited force grouping deployed to the area suggests that the Russian military command likely changed these plans in the lead up to offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast. The Economist reported on May 20 that it viewed Russian military plans from an unspecified date about a planned Russian offensive in the Kharkiv City and Vovchansk directions.[12] The Russian plans reportedly called for Russian forces to advance to Borshchova (about 20 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv City and about 16 kilometers from the international border) within 72 hours in order to place Russian forces within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City. The Russian plans also reportedly called for Russian forces to advance to Pechenihy (south of Vovchansk and about 50 kilometers from the international border) in an unspecified time frame. The Russian offensive was reportedly initially planned to begin May 15 to 16, and the Economist stated that it is unknown why Russian forces pushed forward their offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast to May 10 instead. ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced a maximum of about 10 kilometers deep in the Kharkiv City direction and a maximum of about seven kilometers deep in the Vovchansk direction since May 10. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on May 2 that Russian forces had concentrated about 35,000 personnel in the international border area and planned to concentrate a total of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel.[13] Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast when the Northern Grouping of Forces was understrength and have only committed a limited amount of combat power to the area thus far.[14]

The Russian military command very likely did not expect these limited and understrength forces to be able to reach these objectives, and a Ukrainian reserve officer observed that Russian forces have focused on ”creeping advances” rather than swift drives to an operational depth since their military failures in 2022.[15] The Economist did not specify when the Russian military command created these reported plans, and it is possible that the Russian military command created the plans before it became clear that the Northern Grouping of Forces would not be staffed at its desired end strength or that an earlier or more limited attack was desired. The Russian military command may have also decided to start offensive operations with an understrength grouping to take advantage of Ukrainian manpower and materiel shortages before the arrival of Western aid at scale to the frontline.

I'd also like to add if you push forward an offensive by a week when you have a plan out there to the point of a British independent news org read it, maybe that "plan" was intentional disinformation because you're going to have greater success with the element of surprise.

[Storr]

Strange.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1793340982496264274

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1793368619486937597
Not as good as getting the 300 billion in assets but this will be a nice aid injection for Ukraine along with Germany, France, Sweden, and the UK all announcing this week an increase in aid budgets for Ukraine

[Storr]

Why Ukrainians continue to fight:

"Horrible footage from Vovchansk, which is being attacked heavily by Russian forces. Killed civilians can be seen lying in the streets, fires and smoke everywhere and most houses are either badly damaged or destroyed.

Russia only brings death and destruction."

Video contains dead bodies: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1793224485849502006