What day will the Election be called by the AP?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

^

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's VBM we don't know

[Steve from Lambeth]

Roughly 9am Eastern on Friday, as I have held for the past year or so.

[7,052,770]

We'll basically know before midnight on Election Night, with the formal call on Wednesday morning.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Maybe Wednesday afternoon?

[Malarkey Decider]

- Less Mail-In votes than 2020
- Perhaps lower turnout overall the 2020
- States have more experience processing votes
- Whichever way the election goes; it probably will not be as close as it was in 2020
- Many states have made it easier to preprocess mail-in ballots, count faster.


All this together means that the election will probably be called at latest the next morning.

[Minnesota Mike]

We'll basically know before midnight on Election Night, with the formal call on Wednesday morning.

Yep. 2020 was a fluke, an election during a pandemic with record mail in ballots and states unprepared to process them. Unless it's within 0.5% we will know who won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia before the sun comes up on Wednesday. The AP won't call it then but my guess is most seasoned election observers here will be be able to call the race by the time polls close on the West Coast.

[DS0816]

^

…the early morning hours, on Eastern Time, of Wednesday 11.06.2024.

It will have to do with any states outstanding … and that they may be bellwether/“swing” states which could not be projected by Tuesday 11.05.2024 @ 11:59 p.m. ET.

This also has to do with prevailing party and electoral structure.

My answer is with regard for a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President.

I do recall…

In the 2008 Democratic pickup for U.S. President, the 270 electoral votes were reached on Election Night, Tuesday 11.04.2008, at 11:00 p.m. ET.

Due, in part, to a 2008-to-2012 underperformance, but still a Democratic hold, the election was called around 11:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday 11.06.2012.

For the Republican pickup for U.S. President in 2016, I think it may have been the hour of 02:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday 11.09.2016 in which 270 electoral votes were reached.

[The Mikado]

Unless some combo of AZ and NV is decisive we'll definitely know by dawn on Wednesday.

AZ and NV are only relevant if Biden wins 2 but not 3 of the Midwestern swing states. (PA and either WI or MI) in that case we're waiting until Friday or Saturday.

[Minnesota Mike]

Tonight Pennsylvania had 95% of the vote counted by midnight. It might be a little slower in November with more voters but unless it's extremely close no reason it won't be called on election night. Also due to the way absentees are handled it's going to be opposite of 2020 with Biden jumping out to the big lead early and Trump closing as election day vote is counted.

[Sir Mohamed]

Almost certainly November 6.