Primary Maps

[Josh/Devilman88]

Who do you think will win each state in the Republican and Democrat primaries? (with out Fred Thompson being in the race.)

[Tender Branson]

Too early for me to make any map on this ...

[HappyWarrior]

Well, at the moment Hillary is winning in Maryland.  I will endeavor to change that;)

[Tender Branson]

The Republican nomination would probably look like this if the results of the earlier states are not released until the last state has had its primary/caucus:



Mr. Pink = Mr. Brownback
Mr. Red = Mr. Giuliani
Mr. Grey = Mr. Huckabee
Mr. Blue = Mr. McCain
Mr. Green = Mr. Romney
Mr. Yellow = Mr. Thompson

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Democrats:

Clinton (red): 34
Edwards (blue): 15
Obama (green): 1
Richardson (dark green): 1

[Verily]

Democrats:

Clinton (red): 34
Edwards (blue): 15
Obama (green): 1
Richardson (dark green): 1

Ummm... have you been paying attention to Edwards' numbers in polls at all? He does the worst in the South, coming in a very poor third everywhere except North Carolina itself, where he's slipped into a close three-way race. He's also lost his lead in Iowa and trails badly everywhere else.

The Republican nomination would probably look like this if the results of the earlier states are not released until the last state has had its primary/caucus:



Mr. Pink = Mr. Brownback
Mr. Red = Mr. Giuliani
Mr. Grey = Mr. Huckabee
Mr. Blue = Mr. McCain
Mr. Green = Mr. Romney
Mr. Yellow = Mr. Thompson

What would the delegate numbers be for such a map? (I don't agree with it entirely, either; Romney would probably win Vermont, too, and McCain is no sure bet to win Arizona.)

[Mr. Morden]

Impossible to tell what the delegate count would be w/o a detailed analysis, because some states are winner-take-all, and others aren't.  But by my quick count with my hand calculator, the Giuliani states there total 1068 delegates, the Thompson states total 950 delegates, and the Romney states total 299 delegates.  That's before you account for the penalties for states that go pre-Feb. 5th.  Once you add that in, the Romney total goes way down, as Romney gets most of his delegates from pre-Feb. 5th states, and the Giuliani lead over Thompson gets narrower.

I still think the likeliest scenario is one in which one candidate dominates Feb. 5th, and the others then drop out though (note how Tender Branson said "if the results of the earlier states are not released until the last state has had its primary/caucus".....I think that's right.....the results from the early states will likely shift the Feb. 5th states dramatically, but his map is realistic if they were all voting simultaneously).

Anyway, someone should really come up with a delegate calculator to make this easier to do.  And don't forget to include all the US territories.  American Samoans get a vote in the primaries too!  In fact, Puerto Rico has more delegates than several bona fide states (Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont).

[auburntiger]

Impossible to tell what the delegate count would be w/o a detailed analysis, because some states are winner-take-all, and others aren't.  But by my quick count with my hand calculator, the Giuliani states there total 1068 delegates, the Thompson states total 950 delegates, and the Romney states total 299 delegates.  That's before you account for the penalties for states that go pre-Feb. 5th.  Once you add that in, the Romney total goes way down, as Romney gets most of his delegates from pre-Feb. 5th states, and the Giuliani lead over Thompson gets narrower.

I still think the likeliest scenario is one in which one candidate dominates Feb. 5th, and the others then drop out though (note how Tender Branson said "if the results of the earlier states are not released until the last state has had its primary/caucus".....I think that's right.....the results from the early states will likely shift the Feb. 5th states dramatically, but his map is realistic if they were all voting simultaneously).

Anyway, someone should really come up with a delegate calculator to make this easier to do.  And don't forget to include all the US territories.  American Samoans get a vote in the primaries too!  In fact, Puerto Rico has more delegates than several bona fide states (Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont).

I have always wondered as to why not make Puerto Rico a state, since they do have more delegates than those 5 states you mentioned, which probably means enough people to apply for statehood.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

GOP:

Giuliani (red): 25
Romney (blue): 13
Thompson (dark green): 9
McCain (light green): 3

[Stranger in a strange land]

Impossible to tell what the delegate count would be w/o a detailed analysis, because some states are winner-take-all, and others aren't.  But by my quick count with my hand calculator, the Giuliani states there total 1068 delegates, the Thompson states total 950 delegates, and the Romney states total 299 delegates.  That's before you account for the penalties for states that go pre-Feb. 5th.  Once you add that in, the Romney total goes way down, as Romney gets most of his delegates from pre-Feb. 5th states, and the Giuliani lead over Thompson gets narrower.

I still think the likeliest scenario is one in which one candidate dominates Feb. 5th, and the others then drop out though (note how Tender Branson said "if the results of the earlier states are not released until the last state has had its primary/caucus".....I think that's right.....the results from the early states will likely shift the Feb. 5th states dramatically, but his map is realistic if they were all voting simultaneously).

Anyway, someone should really come up with a delegate calculator to make this easier to do.  And don't forget to include all the US territories.  American Samoans get a vote in the primaries too!  In fact, Puerto Rico has more delegates than several bona fide states (Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont).

I have always wondered as to why not make Puerto Rico a state, since they do have more delegates than those 5 states you mentioned, which probably means enough people to apply for statehood.

Puerto Rico has enough people to become a state and has for a very long time...it's just that for just as long a time Puerto Ricans have been stalemated as to whether to become a state or whether to continue with their current status.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Democrats:

Clinton (red): 39 states
Edwards (blue): 10 states
Obama (green): 1
Richardson (dark green): 1
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