Delegate Selection: New Hampshire (D, R)

[Erc]

New Hampshire: January 8, 2008

New Hampshire will be holding the first primaries in the nation on Tuesday, January 8, for both parties.

These are Semi-Open Primaries:  Registered party members can vote in their own primary, and independents can vote in one (but not both) primaries provided they register for the party whose primary they vote in.  However, you may as easily register back to independent immediately after voting, at the polling site.  On-site registration is allowed.

[Erc]

Republican Primary

Overview:
12 Delegates (.50% of total) [Penalized]
Primary (Proportional, 10% Cutoff)
All 12 Delegates At-Large

Going Into This Contest: 2.1% of delegates assigned so far
(% of total / % of assigned)

Romney: 20 (0.9% / 40.1%)
Huckabee: 17 (0.7% / 34.7%)
Thompson: 6 (0.3% / 12.2%)
McCain: 3 (0.1% / 6.1%)
Paul: 2 (0.1% / 4.1%)
Hunter: 1 (0.0% / 2.0%)


Delegate Allocation:

Delegates are assigned proportionally based on the statewide primary results.  There is a 10% cutoff.

Multiply the candidate's percentage of the total statewide vote by the total number of delegates (12), then round to the nearest whole number.  Any delegates left unassigned are given to the winner of the primary.  (This is the usual Republican practice for their proportional primaries)
Note that this means that voting for a candidate who places below the 10% threshhold is essentially (in terms of delegate placement) voting for the winner of the primary.  As there are a number of candidates who are in a position to do this (Thompson especially, though Paul, Giuliani, and Huckabee are all in danger of doing so), the winner of the primary may receive a disproportionate amount of delegates.

RNC Penalties:
Should the RNC remove its penalties on NH for going early, NH would gain an additional 11 At-Large delegates, and 3 Party Leader delegates (who would go as unpledged delegates, unaffected by the primary results)

Erc's Unofficial Delegate Count:
Will use the method described above to assign delegates.

Example:
Using the most recent Rasmussen poll (throwing out undecideds):
McCain: 32%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 14%
Huckabee: 11%
Giuliani: 8%
Thompson: 5%
Others: 2%

Resulting delegate totals:
McCain: 6 (gains two from being the winner--essentially, one each from the Giuliani & Thompson voters)
Romney: 3
Paul: 2
Huckabee: 1

Should Huckabee (or Paul) slipped under the 10% threshold, their delegates would have gone to McCain as well, giving McCain a majority of the delegates despite winning only about a third of the vote.

[Erc]

Democratic:

Overview:
30 Delegates (.74% of total)
8 Unpledged
22 Pledged, of which:
 14 by CD
 8 At-Large

Going into this contest:  1.3% of delegates assigned.
Obama: 18 (0.4% / 35.3%)
Edwards: 17 (0.4% / 33.3%)
Clinton: 16 (0.4% / 31.4%)

Allocation of Delegates:
Each CD has 7 delegates, and there are 8 At-Large Delegates.

Note that every state which uses a primary system uses the same method of proportionality as New Hampshire, as mandated by the DNC.  There may be slight differences between the ways delegates are divided between the Delegate and At-Large levels, but the method of proportionality in each jurisdiction is the same everywhere for the Democrats.

In each jurisdiction (district or at-large):
15% cutoff: if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, he gets no delegates, and his votes are thrown out.
Multiply the number of delegates to be allocated by the percentage of the vote each candidate received (after throwing out the below-threshold candidates).
Give each candidate the whole number of delegates as calculated above, then allocate additional delegates as necessary to the candidates with the largest fractional parts.


Unpledged Delegates:
4 DNC Members (CNN says that 2 of these have endorsed Clinton, and 1 has endorsed Obama)
2 Representatives (both of whom have endorsed Obama)
1 Governor (Mrs. Lynch has endorsed Clinton, though the Governor himself has remained tight-lipped)
1 'Add-On' (selected by the State Convention on April 26)


Erc's Unofficial Delegate Count:
Follows the DNC method, plus the 2 Unpledged delegates for Obama.  If CD-level  results are not yet available, I'll assume they're the same as the state-wide result.  Note that this may be unfavorable to Edwards if he does much worse than expected...should he poll just barely under 15%, he'll probably still break 15% in one of the two CD's and receive delegates.

Example:
Using the most recent Rasmussen poll, only the 3 big candidates make the cutoff.
After throwing out the minor candidates (& the undecideds):
Obama: 44%
Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 22%

Statewide, this translates into 3 each for Clinton & Obama, and 2 for Edwards.
In each CD, this is 3 for Obama and 2 each for Clinton and Edwards.

Grand Total:
Obama: 12
Clinton: 9
Edwards: 6
Unpledged: 3

Note that, even if Obama loses, he may still come ahead of Clinton (thanks to Hodes & Shea-Porter).  Don't think this would give any consolation to Obama, however; the media won't report this.

[Speed of Sound]

Very well done Erc. It taught me alot.

[Erc]

Republican Delegate Allocation:

77.4% of Precincts Reporting:

McCain: 36.85%
Romney: 31.72%
Huckabee: 11.06%
Giuliani: 8.62%

Delegates Awarded:
McCain: 7
Romney: 4
Huckabee: 1

These are quite likely to be the final Republican delegate counts, regardless of the remaining precincts.  Romney would need to drop below 29.2% to lose a delegate, Huckabee would have to drop below 10% to lose a delegate, and Giuliani would need to go above 10% to gain a delegate.

Democratic projections forthcoming.

[Erc]

Democratic Delegate Allocation:

81.06% of Precincts Reporting:

Clinton: 39.21%
Obama: 36.49%
Edwards: 16.8%
Richardson: 4.6%

Statewide delegates awarded (8 total):
Clinton: 3
Obama: 3
Edwards: 2  (benefits from rounding)

In each CD (7 delegates each):

CD 1:
Clinton: 41%
Obama: 35%
Edwards: 17%

Clinton: 3
Obama: 3
Edwards: 1

CD 2:  (where Obama actually won)
Obama: 38%
Clinton: 37%
Edwards: 17%

Obama: 3
Clinton: 3
Edwards: 1


Total Pledged Delegates:
Clinton: 9
Obama: 9
Edwards: 4

Total (Including Superdelegates):
Clinton: 11
Obama: 12
Edwards: 5

Obama has the most delegates from this, but he can't spin that. 

[Erc]

Total Delegate Count (post-NH):

Democrats:

Obama: 30
Hillary: 27
Edwards: 22

Republicans:

Romney: 24
Huckabee: 18
McCain: 10
Thompson: 6
Paul: 2
Hunter: 1