Ohio in November - Ohio posters please help me out....

[agcatter]

Agree that party registrations have changed around and that's a valid point.

However, race is one variable that doesn't switch around.  The exits showed Bush beating Kerry by 12 among that demographic.  If McCain beats Obama by more than that in 08 it's over in Ohio.  Right now, I'd say that is a pretty safe bet for November.

[Nym90]

Agree that party registrations have changed around and that's a valid point.

However, race is one variable that doesn't switch around.  The exits showed Bush beating Kerry by 12 among that demographic.  If McCain beats Obama by more than that in 08 it's over in Ohio.  Right now, I'd say that is a pretty safe bet for November.

I don't know about "over", as black turnout almost certainly will be higher than it was in 2004. If it isn't, then yes I'd agree with you. Obviously Obama cannot afford to lose a ton of Kerry voters, but I doubt very many voters will switch from Kerry to McCain. Kerry was very liberal, as charismatic as my socks, and running against a President with a 50 percent approval rating. I tend to see his performance more as Obama's floor rather than his ceiling.

[agcatter]

Over is indeed too strong a word in politics. However,  Rev Wright cements the race issue with the very group he must have and is weakest with.  Obama would have to do better than a -12 among whites.  I just don't see it in a state like Ohio.  The Wright thing has legs with the white working class demographic that Obama was having trouble with.

Won't hurt him much in Washington or Connecticut whites.  However, that's a different educational and economic demographic.

Obama will need Colorado and Virginia to make up for the probable loss of Ohio.

[Smash255]

Over is indeed too strong a word in politics. However,  Rev Wright cements the race issue with the very group he must have and is weakest with.  Obama would have to do better than a -12 among whites.  I just don't see it in a state like Ohio.  The Wright thing has legs with the white working class demographic that Obama was having trouble with.

Won't hurt him much in Washington or Connecticut whites.  However, that's a different educational and economic demographic.

Obama will need Colorado and Virginia to make up for the probable loss of Ohio.

The Wright thing is already dying down even though Clinton is trying to bring it back up.  However, those working class voters ansd working class white Democrats in particular may prefer Clinton to Obama and race is likely a reason why, but that doesn't mean they will prefer another white person such as McCain over Obama,.  as I said earlier the way I see the white Ohio working class dem vote is  white with liberal economic views > black with liberal economic views > white with conservative economic views

[Gustaf]

Over is indeed too strong a word in politics. However,  Rev Wright cements the race issue with the very group he must have and is weakest with.  Obama would have to do better than a -12 among whites.  I just don't see it in a state like Ohio.  The Wright thing has legs with the white working class demographic that Obama was having trouble with.

Won't hurt him much in Washington or Connecticut whites.  However, that's a different educational and economic demographic.

Obama will need Colorado and Virginia to make up for the probable loss of Ohio.

The Wright thing is already dying down even though Clinton is trying to bring it back up.  However, those working class voters ansd working class white Democrats in particular may prefer Clinton to Obama and race is likely a reason why, but that doesn't mean they will prefer another white person such as McCain over Obama,.  as I said earlier the way I see the white Ohio working class dem vote is  white with liberal economic views > black with liberal economic views > white with conservative economic views

We've sure seen compelling evidence of that in every election in United States history.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama, and Obama will lose Ohio by a much wider margin than Kerry lost against Bush.   You can count on that.

[agcatter]

Exits showed that only 9% of Dems in Ohio (virtually all of them white Democrats) defected to Bush.  Are we to believe that Obama is going to do anywhere near that well?

This is Ohio, not Washington state.

[Padfoot]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama, and Obama will lose Ohio by a much wider margin than Kerry lost against Bush.   You can count on that.

Kerry was a pompous blowhard.  Obama is a far superior candidate to that loser.

[Brittain33]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama,

Whatever.

[exopolitician]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama, and Obama will lose Ohio by a much wider margin than Kerry lost against Bush.   You can count on that.

Again, where can I purchase obnoxious devices that see into the future that you obviously posess to make such a claim?

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama, and Obama will lose Ohio by a much wider margin than Kerry lost against Bush.   You can count on that.

Kerry was a pompous blowhard.  Obama is a far superior candidate to that loser.

The same thing you're saying about Kerry now is the same thing you'll be saying about Obama when he loses the election.

[opebo]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama, and Obama will lose Ohio by a much wider margin than Kerry lost against Bush.   You can count on that.

No, you don't understand what makes a 'formidable candidate'.  In the first place, there is no way Kerry could be a formidable candidate because he was unlikeable.  Not detestable, just not likeable.  Obama is likeable, which is the number one key to becoming president. 

However the fact that Obama is black may more than make up for his likeability - certainly in Ohio.

[agcatter]

First time I've ever agreed with Opedo.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

John Kerry was a far more formidable candidate than Obama, and Obama will lose Ohio by a much wider margin than Kerry lost against Bush.   You can count on that.

No, you don't understand what makes a 'formidable candidate'.  In the first place, there is no way Kerry could be a formidable candidate because he was unlikeable.  Not detestable, just not likeable.  Obama is likeable, which is the number one key to becoming president. 

However the fact that Obama is black may more than make up for his likeability - certainly in Ohio.

No, it seems like YOU do not understand.   Likeability is key, I agree, but along with it comes a demonstratable ability to perform the functions of an executive position, whether it be overall experience and disposition (McCain, Kerry) or, better yet, past experience serving as as an executive (such as governor of a state).     American voters choose their presidents much like employers seek job applicants.   Likeability is simply another factor that is weighed in the selection process.

Obama has NOTHING going for him but "likeability", and even that I am highly suspect due to his ties with Reverend Wright and white subconscious negative reaction to his "black jive" persona that comes through every once in awhile.  They may SAY in public they like Obama, but do they really? 

And you yourself admit in your last sentence that Obama's likeability is effectively neutralized by his race in Ohio, which totally negates your point and supports mine.   *rolls eyes*