Will Obama win Hamilton Co. OH or Campbell Co. KY?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think the last time a Democrat carried either county was 1964, when LBJ won both.

Is it possible that Obama can win them? I think he will win Hamilton County, to be honest. As for Campbell, you see Obama signs in many a lawn, and hardly ever a McCain sign.

[Alcon]

Hamilton County is a distinct possibility.

Campbell, lol, no.

[Mr.Phips]

I think the last time a Democrat carried either county was 1964, when LBJ won both.

Is it possible that Obama can win them? I think he will win Hamilton County, to be honest. As for Campbell, you see Obama signs in many a lawn, and hardly ever a McCain sign.

Campbell county Kentucky? The same county that voted 64%-35% for Bush in 2004?  I dont think so.  He could very well win Hamilton county, Ohio, which is trending Democratic.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He could very well win Hamilton county, Ohio, which is trending Democratic.  

Campbell is too. Compare Campbell today versus 1988 when Campbell was one of the worst counties not just in the state, but in the country.

I frankly have a hard time seeing how Bush carried it by that much in 2004. Unless Claryville has gotten mighty big.

[Mr.Phips]

He could very well win Hamilton county, Ohio, which is trending Democratic.  

Campbell is too. Compare Campbell today versus 1988 when Campbell was one of the worst counties not just in the state, but in the country.

I frankly have a hard time seeing how Bush carried it by that much in 2004. Unless Claryville has gotten mighty big.

It is likely getting gradually more Democratic as it grows and more young people move there, but its not likely to be anything close to a Democratic county anytime soon. 

[RJ]

I say no to Hamilton. Cincy's been a Republican mainstay for quite some time now and I'm just going to say if Clinton couldn't win it Barrack won't either. I do expect the vote to be within 4%, however. The congressional race will probably be a joke there as well.

I have no idea where Campbell County is.

[Mr.Phips]

I say no to Hamilton. Cincy's been a Republican mainstay for quite some time now and I'm just going to say if Clinton couldn't win it Barrack won't either. I do expect the vote to be within 4%, however. The congressional race will probably be a joke there as well.

I have no idea where Campbell County is.

How will OH-01 be a joke?  Is there something very funny about that district that the rest of us are not aware of. 

[Padfoot]

Hamilton is a distinct possibility for Obama.  Actually I would predict that Hamilton County will be the closest county to the statewide result.

There's no way Campbell County is voting for Obama though.  I expect Kentucky to be one of his top ten worst states actually. 

As for OH-1 it should be a very interesting race.  Cincy has a well-known conservative streak but increased black turnout in a district that is 27% black could make a big difference.

[NOVA Green]

Hamilton is a distinct possibility for Obama.  Actually I would predict that Hamilton County will be the closest county to the statewide result.

There's no way Campbell County is voting for Obama though.  I expect Kentucky to be one of his top ten worst states actually. 

As for OH-1 it should be a very interesting race.  Cincy has a well-known conservative streak but increased black turnout in a district that is 27% black could make a big difference.

There was that poll in the past month that showed Obama up something like 5 points in OH-1, although as Alcon and others pointed out the large MOE in this sample makes it a fairly inaccurate representation of what is going on here.

[Ronnie]

Hamilton county is a tossup, but I think McCain has a slight edge unless Obama wins the state by 2 or more.

[Nym90]

Hamilton, yes.

Campbell, no.

[Cubby]

As long as Obama doesn't lose any support from here on out, he could win Hamilton. It would only take a 6% swing from 2004. I thought it would be easy for him to win, but looking through the 2006 results, I see that Sherrod Brown and Strickland both narrowly lost Hamilton. That suggests that the GOP isn't doing as badly there as in the rest of the state. Probably because Cinncinnati only makes up a third or so of the county's population.

There's no way Campbell County is voting for Obama though.  I expect Kentucky to be one of his top ten worst states actually. 

Agree. But I think it will be one of Obama's five worst states. KY and WV will probably see a big swing to McCain even if the rest of the country swings to the Dems this year.

[Padfoot]

As long as Obama doesn't lose any support from here on out, he could win Hamilton. It would only take a 6% swing from 2004. I thought it would be easy for him to win, but looking through the 2006 results, I see that Sherrod Brown and Strickland both narrowly lost Hamilton. That suggests that the GOP isn't doing as badly there as in the rest of the state. Probably because Cinncinnati only makes up a third or so of the county's population.

Also the Republican candidate for governor in 2006, Ken Blackwell, was a former mayor of Cincinnati.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You also have to consider that if Obama surges in the polls, a lot of counties could be in play that weren't before.

[Eraserhead]

YOU FOOLS, OBAMA WILL WIN EVEN MY STATE'S HAMILTON COUNTY!!1111













jk.

[Verily]

Hamilton County is a distinct possibility.

Campbell, lol, no.

I first read this as Holmes County and was wondering what Obama did to endear himself to the Amish.

Obama will most likely win Hamilton County, Ohio. Campbell... no (though he may, may, improve on Kerry's numbers).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

though he may, may, improve on Kerry's numbers).

He might do... if only because of the general swing... but Campbell county is white flight...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

though he may, may, improve on Kerry's numbers).

He might do... if only because of the general swing... but Campbell county is white flight...

Newport still has a significant percentage of Campbell County's population. Don't seriously expect McCain to carry Newport. (Gore and Kerry won it.)