AZ-03 and NE-02: new DCCC targets

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QH-bwmaMKA&feature=user

This is ad is part of the new $~270K ad buy the DCCC. The DCCC is also planning a $200k barrage in NE-02. What do Democrats Bob Lord and Jim Esch share in common, besides both running against entrenched Republicans in previously safe GOP districts? Both are young rising stars who have outperformed expectations by campaign prognosticators.

Do y'all think these are races the DCCC should be targeting?

[Bacon King]

I can't vouch for either of those districts specifically but I do know spending more money in NE-2 can't hurt Obama's chances there.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

$200,000 in NE-02?  Their first option, flushing $200,000 down the toilet, must not have been available.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

$200,000 in NE-02?  Their first option, flushing $200,000 down the toilet, must not have been available.

How much is McCain spending in Iowa per week?

[Verily]

NE-02 is probably an attempt to bolster the Democratic brand there for Obama's benefit, not a serious attempt to win the seat.

[Brittain33]

These are districts in states that McCain is taking for granted and Obama is writing off, so there's no Republican volunteer apparatus to counter. Shadegg is a lazy incumbent, to boot.

[MarkWarner08]

These are districts in states that McCain is taking for granted and Obama is writing off, so there's no Republican volunteer apparatus to counter. Shadegg is a lazy incumbent, to boot.

John Shadegg is also a paranoid incumbent. I remember Cole saying something to that effect last year.  Maybe his paranoia is justified ...

[Dan the Roman]

$200,000 in NE-02?  Their first option, flushing $200,000 down the toilet, must not have been available.

As was spending money late in the game on Nancy Boyda in 2006? This was a 54-46 race in 2006, the Democrat has vastly more money, Lee Terry has had scandal trouble, and can be linked to the finance meltdown which does affect Omaha. I would not right this seat off.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

$200,000 in NE-02?  Their first option, flushing $200,000 down the toilet, must not have been available.

As was spending money late in the game on Nancy Boyda in 2006? This was a 54-46 race in 2006, the Democrat has vastly more money, Lee Terry has had scandal trouble, and can be linked to the finance meltdown which does affect Omaha. I would not right this seat off.

Indeed, I think Democrats are genuinely interested in make a half-assed $200,000 play for this seat.  I'm not sure that it helps Obama much, unless this was a $200,000 organizational buy—it seems more that the DSCC is leeching off of Obama's investment, and not backing it up themselves.

[Dan the Roman]

This does not speak to confidence on Terry's party.

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3397

[Sam Spade]

A $200,000 ad buy translates into a race where the DCCC sees *opportunity*, but is unsure whether their advertising will have an *impact*.  In other words, it's a test.

If the ad buy is followed by subsequent ad buys over the next couple of weeks - you can answer the question in the affirmative; if not, answer it in the negative.

As for AZ-03, the DCCC has been spending tons of money here, so they must see some opportunity.  They've also been spending tons of money in AZ-01, AZ-05 and AZ-08.  How McCain "coattails", however small or large they will be (but they will exist to some extent) will affect things is unknown.