Presidential elections in the next 10 years

[jacob_101]

I see the battle in the next decade or two as an advantage for the Democratic Party.

FL is clearly trending Democrat.  If Bush squeaks out a victory this year, I doubt a conservative Republican can take the state in 2008 or 20012.  More and more liberals are moving to the state giving the Democrats an advantage in the Electoral College.

Without it's 27 votes Republicans need to win swing states in the Midwest to win a National election.

What do you all think?

Jacob

[ATFFL]

AS FLorida weakens for the GOP, they get the exact same number of EVs slipping toward them in WI, IA, and MN.

[A18]

"FL is clearly trending Democrat" is where I stopped taking the post seriously. People need to get past this myth.

The Republicans have gained ground since 2000.

[Alcon]

The midwest will trend Republican, slowly, although I think they will stay as swing states for a bit.

Virginia will be trending Democrat, as will Nevada and maybe Florida.

We'll see in 2008 and on, I guess.

[jacob_101]

AS FLorida weakens for the GOP, they get the exact same number of EVs slipping toward them in WI, IA, and MN.
[/quote}

Yes i hope this trend continues.  We may need it.

[bergie72]

I think the Dems will have the advantedge, but more from the Latino population growing in the Southwest. 

Look at the numbers from Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, and even Texas.  I wouldn't be surprised if the 2008 election has one or more of these states flipping, if they don't this year.

[DaleC76]

I think party trends in states are overrated.  The party that fields the strongest candidates will always have the advantage.

[jacob_101]

I think party trends in states are overrated.  The party that fields the strongest candidates will always have the advantage.

To an extent I agree.  But I don't see MA or NY voting Republican in the near future.  Likewise UT and WY aren't voting Democrat no matter how "strong" the candidate is...but when it comes to close states I agree with you.

[jacob_101]

I think the Dems will have the advantedge, but more from the Latino population growing in the Southwest. 

Look at the numbers from Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, and even Texas.  I wouldn't be surprised if the 2008 election has one or more of these states flipping, if they don't this year.

You may be right, but in this election cycle, President Bush will GAIN among this group.  I predict Bush gets 40% of the hispanic vote in CA, AZ, TX, NV and close in NM.

[nini2287]

I have a feeling that whichever party wins the Presidency this year, will lose the 2008 Election.

If Bush gets re-elected, I think we will be involved with more unpopular wars.  In the primary, I think we will see a bitter face-off between a moderate (Hagel, Pataki, McCain, etc.) vs. a relgious conservative (Santorum, Ashcroft, etc.)  The Democrats will unite beyong a popular candidate with high favorability ratings (Edwards, Obama, etc.).  However, the potential independent campaigns of Jesse Ventura and Howard Dean could throw a curveball at the Dems, but I think the Dem candidate will win the 2008 election should Bush get re-elected.

However, if Kerry wins the election, I think several campaign promises will go at least partially unfufilled such as keeping taxes low, gaining 10 million jobs and gradual withdrawal from Iraq (he will inherit the situation from Bush, however).  The Republicans will nominate a conservative Republican, but not as far right-wing as Santorum (Frist, Hutchison) and will be able to paint the Kerry administration as a failure and win back the White House.

[No more McShame]

I think the Dems will have the advantedge, but more from the Latino population growing in the Southwest. 

Look at the numbers from Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, and even Texas.  I wouldn't be surprised if the 2008 election has one or more of these states flipping, if they don't this year.

You overstate the tendency of Latinos to vote Democrat.  They tend to be social conservative and are helped by the Bush Child Tax Credit.  I am looking forward to seeing exit polling from the Arizona election as both the Democrats and Republicans have been courting Latino votes.

[AuH2O]

If Bush wins in '04, the GOP will try to hold the Presidency with Guiliani in '08.

I would prefer Allen or Romney, but we shall see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"I am pro-choice and do not favor a ban on partial-birth abortions."

Anyone who said that will never win the GOP nomination. Guiliani is out.

[danwxman]

"I am pro-choice and do not favor a ban on partial-birth abortions."

Anyone who said that will never win the GOP nomination. Guiliani is out.

Exactly.....

There is just no way Guiliani would get the nomination...he would get beat in the primaries for being too liberal.

[Davo]

If Bush wins this election, the Republicans will have to choose between having another President Clinton or having a moderate, such as Guiliani or McCain, as their nominee in 2008.  They will need someone who already has national recognition (Guiliani, McCain, Hagel, Arnold even) if they're to compete with Hillary.  If Kerry wins, then the field is wide open for the Republicans in '08.  The Republicans are going to need to seriously think about their 4-year strategy regardless of the outcome of this election.

[orunje]

Regardless of who wins this election, the best candidate for the republican ticket in 2008 in J.C. Watts.  As a non-racist reverend, he should easily shore up the religious right vote, as well as bring a much larger portion of the "minority" vote to the GOP.  The Democratic party would have a very difficult time trying to attacking him morally.  It would be hard to paint him as trying to disenfranchise black voters since he is one.  The largest problem would be people like Sharpton trying to call him a sellout.  He is also very articulate yet plain spoken.  He is young and attractive, which altough I hate to say it, can only help him amonst women and young people.

[Derek]

[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=1;3;4&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=2;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;

The great lake and deep south regions are trending to the right.
The entire west is trending to the left. I also think the Dakotas and plains are moving left but will never go far enough to be blue states. (or red on here lol)

[Derek]

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=1;3;4&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=2;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;][img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=1;3;4&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=2;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;

[Derek]

[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=1;3;4&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=2;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;

[Bo]

Speaking from a 2010 perspective, Democrats.

[Hash]

Good Lord, learn to post maps before posting for heaven's sake.

[Free Palestine]

Republicans, until the people wake up and realize that both parties are screwing them anally, which is highly unlikely.