Baseless predictions thread

[DS0816]

The title of this thread is "Baseless Predictions," not "Fantasy Scenarios."

New to this site?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

On Election Night, networks cut away in the middle of Romney's concession speech to Palin's press conference where she announces she is not running.

[mondale84]

David Duke wins the Republican nomination and campaigns as a reformer who will put the black man back in his place. He puts burning crosses on his campaign posters and carries a noose around to his campaign events. He picks Paul Broun as his running mate because crazies work well together. The economy improves and the unemployment rate is 7.2% on election day. Needless to say, black, hispanic and catholic turnout is extraordinary on election day....

Obama/Biden: 496 (57.1%)
Duke/Broun: 42 (40.3%)

[izixs]

These are supposed to be baseless predictions, not predictions based on very little.

I was trying to put me devil in the details with things like PA being closer then GA and both going dem.

[Del Tachi]

Rick Perry wins the GOP nomination after narrowly winning the South Carolina and Florida primaries.  At the convention in Tampa, he picks former New York governor George Pataki as his running mate--hoping to give the Republican ticket more moderate appeal.

Early in the primary season, Vice President Joe Biden announces that he will not serve another term as Vice President due to health reasons.  A few weeks before the convention, President Obama announces his choice for Vice President--current New York governor Andrew Cuomo.  Obama hoped that the Cuomo pick would help him win back some of the liberal support he's bled over the course of his presidency.

Perry attacks Obama's economic policies and points to Texas' economic record during his governorship.  Perry also talks about the need to reduce the debt, by cutting spending in entitlement programs and defense.  He speaks very little of social issues--like gay marriage and abortion.

Obama runs an extremley negative campaign.  He attacks Perry for statements that could be considered "secessionist".  Obama also points to Perry's "fiscal irresponsibility" during his tenure as governor.  Obama also enjoys having much more foreign policy experience than Obama.   

After taking a dive in the summer/fall of 2011, the economy remains sluggish.  By election day, though, unemployment has fallen to 8.5%, consumer confidence remains low and Obama's approvals are 42/49 by late October.  Most analysts cannot agree on the outcome of the election.

RESULTS:

 

Obama over-performs in the swing states due to the fact that many Independent voters flock to him in the last days of the election.  Perry is able to hold NC and IA, two states expected to go for Obama, with under 50% of the vote. 

Barack Obama--327 electoral votes; 51.24% of national popular vote
Rick Perry----211 electoral votes; 46.96% of national popular vote

[NHI]

Romney vs. Obama:

Economy collapses, events mirror the great depression.

R: 508: 60.2%
D:  30:  38.7%

Perry vs. Obama

Economic recovery, Obama paints Perry as a Bush clone.

Bachmann vs. Obama

Unemployment at 8.9%

R: 272: 49.0%
D: 266: 48.8%

Palin vs. Obama

It's morning in America again.

[Peeperkorn]

It's morning in America again.

lol.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Palin vs. Obama

It's morning in America again.

Switch Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, and maybe Alabama and Idaho.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Chris Christie will be the GOP nominee, with Rubio the VP nominee....and will defeat Obama

[All Along The Watchtower]

Chris Christie will be the GOP nominee, with Rubio the VP nominee....and will defeat Obama

ok.

[GLPman]

Romney/Martinez: 272
Obama/Biden: 266

Completely baseless prediction.

[specific_name]

Chris Christie will be the GOP nominee, with Rubio the VP nominee....and will defeat Obama

ok.

Well, he did place it in the baseless predictions thread.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Well, why not?

First, the primary. The economy deteriorates (though not into a complete collapse), resulting in Obama's popularity dropping sharply. Encouraged by this, Perry and Giuliani jump into the race. First Bachmann and then Perry enter strongly and then begin to falter. Romney's strength declines steadily as exposure of his previous policies becomes more widespread and attacks on him grow. As we enter the election, it seems as though Iowa is up for grabs and New Hampshire is divided between Giuliani and Romney, with Paul lagging behind in third. Palin endorses no one. Paul wins the Ames straw poll, but by thin margins, with the media crowing of Bachmann's strong second place finish. However, Pawlenty pulls his campaign together to become a stronger challenge to Romney despite his third place finish, and Paul's numbers begin to slowly climb.

(Red is Romney, Blue is Giuliani, Dark Green is Bachmann, Burgundy is Cain, Grey is Paul)

The primary results are surprising. Most pundits predicted Iowa to be a victory for either Bachmann, Perry, or Pawlenty (the first two having faltered but still going strong, the last improving dramatically over time). However, with the heavily divided vote, Ron Paul managed to snatch victory in the caucus while Pawlenty came second and Bachmann close behind in third. This surprise victory boosts Paul's campaign into overdrive, beginning a media blitz with its large warchest and raising large amounts of money from an energized fanbase.

New Hampshire is closely contested between Romney and Giuliani, with Paul in third. However, Paul's victory in Iowa makes him a stronger candidate, sapping from a portion of Romney's voters. Weakened from constant attacks by rivals, and by a slowly growing group of Pawlenty and Huntsman supporters, Romney actually comes third in New Hampshire, a percentage point behind Paul and five percent behind Giuliani. Romney's campaign begins to fall apart, though it is still quite powerful.

In Nevada, Paul puts extra effort into winning the state. Romney's base, again divided by Huntsman and Pawlenty in addition to having lost much of Romney's New Hampshire loss, is unable to prevent Paul from winning (though Romney comes in an extremely close second, allowing him some momentum to at least redeem himself later).

Bachmann and Cain, both having lost much flair, compete against each other for the "Tea Party" support, snatching each other's positions of strength in the south and (to a lesser degree) the midwest, while Giuliani and Romney cause problems for each other in more liberal states in the west and northeast. Pawlenty performs strongly enough to derail Romney, but not strongly enough to win a state. Perry's performance is extremely poor due to his bad reputation in Texas spreading across the US. Huntsman, like Pawlenty, manages to damage Romney (and Giuliani, to a lesser extent), but fails to win a state.

Thus, Romney and Giuliani prevent each other from winning with their more moderate bases while Bachmann and Cain divide the conservative, southern vote sufficiently to prevent either from gaining a victory. Paul wins enough "outlier" states initially to keep his momentum strong, and is able to beat his opponents in some states because of his stronger base not being sapped (for example, in Maine and Washington). Ultimately, his increase in legitimacy results in stronger victories, leading to wins in Texas and California. The nomination process is heavily divided, but ultimately Ron Paul rolls in to victory.

Next up, the general election...

[opebo]