What do you think will happen ?

[Tender Branson]

I think it will fail this time, electing Newt, but Romney wins the nomination.

[TheGlobalizer]

I think it will fail this time, electing Newt, but Romney wins the nomination.

As of today, I agree.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Newt wins South Carolina, Romney the nomination, and Obama the election.

[King]

Romney in 48 glorious hours goes from being on the verge of winning the first three contests to losing two of them. SC always determines the nominee, which will be Gingrich.

[The Mikado]

But...but didn't SC fail to pick the eventual nominee in 2004 when it went Edwards over Kerry?

[Oakvale]

But...but didn't SC fail to pick the eventual nominee in 2004 when it went Edwards over Kerry?

I guess it's only applicable to Republican primaries. Which is a pretty ridiculously small sample size, but there you go.

[Beet]

This could definitely happen if Gingrich and Santorum continue to split the conservative vote, and Ron Paul continues to play wild-card.

Paul is an excellent campaigner and should not be underestimated. He's the only one with a campaign infrastructure to match Romney, the only non-Romney that polls competitively in the GE, and the only one to consistently rise in the polls the longer he campaigns. He's the only one that strikes real doubt into the Left, which is not so significant in itself as it is an indication of his potential appeal among the more educated, upper-middle-class independents that like to think of themselves as intellectual and vanguard. The energy of his supporters certainly surpasses Romney's.

Of course, he's hardly eloquent, and when you ask him about certain issues he falls flat. And his achilles heel is his age, 76, as manifested not so much by voters' reluctance at this point to put a 76-year old man in control of a lot of delegates, but by his lacklustre campaign schedule with many long breaks and serious doubt as to whether he is really seeking the nomination or only angling for position. But when he's talking about freedom and liberty and debt he's by far the most convincing guy in the room. He has an almost Ronald Reaganesque ability to oversimplify things into the platitudes that Americans like to hear yet at the same time make it sound convincing and sincere.

[Mehmentum]

Gingrich v. Paul v. Romney would make a long and very fun race to watch, but Romney is very likely to come out on top. 

I don't see a path to the nomination for Gingrich.  Even if he makes it a brokered convention, Paul would most likely make a deal with Romney (perhaps for Rand Paul as a running mate, speaking time at the convention, and/or platform changes).  Since Paul and Romney seem to never attack each other, I feel that this would be the most likely result of a brokered convention.

[King]

But...but didn't SC fail to pick the eventual nominee in 2004 when it went Edwards over Kerry?

Rephrase: SC always picks the nominee in the party of the South.

[TheGlobalizer]

This could definitely happen if Gingrich and Santorum continue to split the conservative vote, and Ron Paul continues to play wild-card.

Paul is an excellent campaigner and should not be underestimated. He's the only one with a campaign infrastructure to match Romney, the only non-Romney that polls competitively in the GE, and the only one to consistently rise in the polls the longer he campaigns. He's the only one that strikes real doubt into the Left, which is not so significant in itself as it is an indication of his potential appeal among the more educated, upper-middle-class independents that like to think of themselves as intellectual and vanguard. The energy of his supporters certainly surpasses Romney's.

Of course, he's hardly eloquent, and when you ask him about certain issues he falls flat. And his achilles heel is his age, 76, as manifested not so much by voters' reluctance at this point to put a 76-year old man in control of a lot of delegates, but by his lacklustre campaign schedule with many long breaks and serious doubt as to whether he is really seeking the nomination or only angling for position. But when he's talking about freedom and liberty and debt he's by far the most convincing guy in the room. He has an almost Ronald Reaganesque ability to oversimplify things into the platitudes that Americans like to hear yet at the same time make it sound convincing and sincere.

This is a good summary of why I like Ron Paul and why I'm still optimistic about his chances.  I am a bit worried about the consistent hands-off treatment of Romney (it's a bit too obvious) but so far, it's paying off.

I think the GOP realizes that a) Romney is the most mainstream candidate they have, which is usually who the GOP picks; b) Newt is patently unelectable, regardless of his influence on/in the party; c) Ron Paul's voters are essential for the GOP to win the general election.  The problem is that Romney is mainstream but fits so many distasteful stereotypes about Republican candidates that he's really not that electable.  Ron Paul?  He's a true wild card.  He could be Reagan or he could be Goldwater.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Gingrich v. Paul v. Romney would make a long and very fun race to watch, but Romney is very likely to come out on top. 

I don't see a path to the nomination for Gingrich.  Even if he makes it a brokered convention, Paul would most likely make a deal with Romney (perhaps for Rand Paul as a running mate, speaking time at the convention, and/or platform changes).  Since Paul and Romney seem to never attack each other, I feel that this would be the most likely result of a brokered convention.

+1

I honestly hope Gingrich wins SC at this point, since Santorum and Paul clearly aren't going to.

The most exciting result would be something like

Gingrich
Paul
Romney
Santorum

or

Gingrich
Santorum/Paul
Paul/Santorum
Romney

(the bottom ain't gonna happen and the first is highly unlikely, but both would guarantee an exciting race from this point on)

Romney has the money, the establishment, and the genericness. Gingrich has the charisma and potential anti-Romney support. Paul has the organization and grassroots support.

If Romney loses SC, this is going to be a long, exciting campaign.