With PA now tied, Obama in desperation sends in Bill Clinton

[Fargobison]

Joe Trippi just said that both sides have very different turnout models and both are scared that they could have it wrong. This why Bill is going to PA and why Romney is still going to VA and FL.

I've heard this a couple times before as well. Trippi said it won't be close, either side could win comfortably.

[Drew1830]

LiberalJunkie 99, your blind faith is commendable and I hope you never lose it; but suffice to say, I think you will be profoundly disappointed on Wednesday; the basis for this faith of yours, is the echo chamber you live in; I suspect you assume, a poll which is biased in favor of Dems, is accurate and I bet you have discounted the 47% tie in the poll, because it makes you uncomfortable and you prefer to think your guy will win, how sweet. Only 48 hours to go, before we know who is blowing smoke and who was right in there analysis.

We already know who's right in their spelling though.

[J. J.]

Joe Trippi just said that both sides have very different turnout models and both are scared that they could have it wrong. This why Bill is going to PA and why Romney is still going to VA and FL.

I've heard this a couple times before as well. Trippi said it won't be close, either side could win comfortably.

Mittens was in PA today, so the theory doesn't hold.

I did not expect it, but PA has become tight.  I'd still give it to Obama. 

[Yank2133]

Joe Trippi just said that both sides have very different turnout models and both are scared that they could have it wrong. This why Bill is going to PA and why Romney is still going to VA and FL.

I've heard this a couple times before as well. Trippi said it won't be close, either side could win comfortably.

I doubt it.

You don't put the jeep ad if you believe in your turnout model.

[mileslunn]

Considering Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes it would be silly for Romney not to campaign there unless he was positive he had no chance of winning.  Even with a 10% chance it is worth it never mind while I think he has little chance at winning Pennsylvania it forces Obama to defend the state meaning less resources for other swing states so strategically a smart move.  Otherwise it may not result in Romney winning Pennsylvania but could help him in states like Colorado, Virginia, and Florida while Obama will have less resources to fight.  Likewise if you are in the Obama campaign you only don't campaign there if you are 100% sure you have the state locked up.  If you even think there is the slightest chance you could lose, you campaign there.  I should note though I cannot see Romney winning Pennsylvania but losing Ohio, Virginia, or Florida.   And I don't think the polls will be that far off.  Otherwise in all likelihood, besides Colorado and Virginia whomever is leading will win all the other states.  Virginia and Colorado are really the only two truly toss ups at this point.

[Cliffy]

I think it was Carville who said if they if both campaigns are in PA at the end, it will be a blowout.

Joe Trippi just said that both sides have very different turnout models and both are scared that they could have it wrong. This why Bill is going to PA and why Romney is still going to VA and FL.

I've heard this a couple times before as well. Trippi said it won't be close, either side could win comfortably.

Mittens was in PA today, so the theory doesn't hold.

I did not expect it, but PA has become tight.  I'd still give it to Obama. 

[John_Engle]

Romey need to Go to Pennsylvnia & make speeches now

[J. J.]

Romey need to Go to Pennsylvnia & make speeches now

He did.

I talked to an old friend in Cambria County. 

Romney is blitzing the air there, less than Obama.  They have a good turnout drive going, similar to my phone call story (it was in person). 

The Republican GOTV in PA is very good.  Whether or not it will make a difference, I don't know. 

[7,052,770]

Bottom line, my gut tells me this, Romney wins, by what margin, that is a question which remains murky. My gut is never wrong.

Haha, well let's just save money by cancelling elections and just letting your infallible gut pick the winners.

[J. J.]

Bottom line, my gut tells me this, Romney wins, by what margin, that is a question which remains murky. My gut is never wrong.

Haha, well let's just save money by cancelling elections and just letting your infallible gut pick the winners.

My gut still tells me Obama takes PA, but it will be surprisingly close. 

I had it Obama +6 earlier in the month. 

[Brittain33]

Romney is blitzing the air there, less than Obama.  They have a good turnout drive going, similar to my phone call story (it was in person). 

Romney SuperPACs are now buying advertising on national television in order to spend down their bank accounts. People are reporting ads in Chicago, Dallas, all over the country, particularly during football games.

Do you consider robocalls to be evidence of a ground game?

[milhouse24]

Obama will win Ohio because of the auto-bailout.  Romney has a wall in Ohio and can't break it. 

Penn doesn't have an auto industry, and Romney fits into Penn's Moderate Republican love-fest.  They have a REpublican governor and Senator, and another pro-life Senator. 

Penn will make a good alternative to Ohio if he can win it. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

PA may not have as much of the auto industry per se, but it's a state with a lot of heavy manufacturing (at least compared to most states), fairly strong unions (again, by the standards of the US), and a very big and very blue city (Ohio has no real equivalent to Philly).

[heatmaster]

So Snowstalker, you theory goes like this, all the population of Pennsylvania is crammed into Philly, which of course is a Democratic bastion; Coalminers, gun-owners and those bitter voters who cling to there religion, they either love Obama so much, they won't turn out for Romney or your side can convince those same Coal-miners - who are very very likely to vote for Romney not to vote at all; then you also overlook the famous T corridor, where most of the critical swing voters reside are going to defy the odds and support Obama, never mind Romney's consistent lead with Independents and once again Pennsylvania will fall in love with Barack, aah what a lovely fairytale; only thing with this theory, Obama is not a terribly popular brand name in Pennsylvania, he got his ass handed to him by Hillary in the primary four years ago; he won the state by default, because of the Democratic brand label; he sends Bill Clinton in, because he knows his economic record is not selling with most voters in Pennsylvania and then his campaign accuses Romney of resorting to desperation tactics and are panicking, because they fear Romney might lose Ohio; nice try in the reverse psychology method, but Romney went into Pennsylvania any way; show's you how much he's going to listen to your advise. So why is Obama in Wisconsin then?, oh of course, I forgot, he just wanted to hang out with the folks in the Badger state, and amazingly in Madison, ground-zero for "safe" Obama territory, wow!; of course Obama is not panicking and is not worried his base might not turn out tomorrow; no perish the thought;  Mitt is desperate for going into Pennsylvania, because he's panicking, but Barack is not desperate for going into Wisconsin, yeah right!! Obama has internals which show the 2008 turnout models are not a dead cert, and Bill going into Pennsylvania and Barack going into Wisconsin proves that my theory holds water. If I have voiced these opinions, you can bet your ass that both Romney and Obama are behaving in the manner they are, because of these same internals.

[Zanas]

Seriously, we cannot read your posts.

They lack paragraphs. Badly.

[J. J.]

And Romney will be in Pittsburgh, PA on Election Day.  (It does have some bleedover into Ohio media markets)!

Do you consider robocalls to be evidence of a ground game?

No, but the robocalls have been from Obama.  Mittens folks have been calling, or going to people's homes asking them when they are going to vote, to make sure they do vote. 

[Cliffy]

Super pacs are spending money nationally now because Romney is in really good shape.  You guys really underestimated this guy, I've said it before he's been playing chess while Obama's team is playing checkers.  They are trying to bring in the Senate on Romney's coattails

[ProudModerate2]

... nice try in the reverse psychology method ...

Talk about somebody who is using "reverse psychology" ?
Look in the mirror, heatmaster.
This entire site is littered with your maddening reverse psychology (and far-off theories).