Nate Silver was wrong

[Holmes]

He may have gotten Montana's senate race wrong, but I got it right! Although, we both got North Dakota wrong...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ohio leaning republican (ever so slightly, mind you) compared to the national popular vote was a bit of a surprise when you consider the polling ahead of the election, which pretty unanimously had Ohio leaning dem compared to the national PV this election cycle.

Had we had a complete dead heat in the national PV with a uniform swing of 2,3% to the GOP, Obama would have lost Florida and Ohio, but would still have won Virginia and Colorado and every other swing state. This is at least somewhat surprising given that Ohio always looked more certain for him in the polling than Virginia or Colorado. Still a lot of votes to be counted in Colorado, though, so that could potentially change.

I never bought the CW that Virginia and Colorado were Romney's to lose. These two, along with Nevada, are the poster states of the new Democratic coalition.

[JohnCA246]

I'm not sure Silver was really wrong, although I admit not knowing exactly what "tipping point state" means. To me, OH was the most important single state. CO would only matter if Obama won NH, NV, and IA. With OH, the only Bush state Obama would need was NV.

So CO + NH + NV + IA ended up being the easiest path. CO, NH, NV, IA is not a state though. So I'll go with Oh as "the tipping point," and wouldn't be surprised if the margin goes up there as well in the coming week.

[BlueSwan]

Ohio leaning republican (ever so slightly, mind you) compared to the national popular vote was a bit of a surprise when you consider the polling ahead of the election, which pretty unanimously had Ohio leaning dem compared to the national PV this election cycle.

Had we had a complete dead heat in the national PV with a uniform swing of 2,3% to the GOP, Obama would have lost Florida and Ohio, but would still have won Virginia and Colorado and every other swing state. This is at least somewhat surprising given that Ohio always looked more certain for him in the polling than Virginia or Colorado. Still a lot of votes to be counted in Colorado, though, so that could potentially change.

I never bought the CW that Virginia and Colorado were Romney's to lose. These two, along with Nevada, are the poster states of the new Democratic coalition.

You are probably right. Polls seemed to underestimate Obama in those two states. And in a lot of swing states infact. Only Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Florida was won by Obama by a margin smaller than +5. This is especially funny given these two GOP claims:

a) That the undecideds break for the challenger.
b) That the polls favoured the democrats.

Infact it would appear that the polls favoured the GOP and that the undecideds break for the incumbent.

[milhouse24]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.  You just know the Unions are stuffing the ballots.  They really hate Romney. 

Dead people vote as well.

Oh, how cute. Milhouse can't possibly conceive of the idea of people disagreeing with him.

No, I'm just stating that Unions are very good at ballot stuffing. 

Romney def had a wall in Ohio.

[opebo]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.

I don't doubt that, milhouse, but those would have been on your side.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.  You just know the Unions are stuffing the ballots.  They really hate Romney. 

Dead people vote as well.

Oh, how cute. Milhouse can't possibly conceive of the idea of people disagreeing with him.

No, I'm just stating that Unions are very good at ballot stuffing. 

Romney def had a wall in Ohio.

Your line of reasoning, as far as I can tell:

Milhouse is the embodiment of America.
⇒ A typical American would agree with milhouse.
⇒ Since Ohio is the quintessential American state, Ohioans must, by majority, agree with milhouse.
⇒ Any metric by which this is not the case must be rigged.

Sound about right?

[Zanas]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.  You just know the Unions are stuffing the ballots.  They really hate Romney. 

Dead people vote as well.

Oh, how cute. Milhouse can't possibly conceive of the idea of people disagreeing with him.

No, I'm just stating that Unions are very good at ballot stuffing. 

Romney def had a wall in Ohio.

Aren't the state governments, and not the Unions, in charge of organizing the elections ?

[Maxwell]

I got some of the Senate Races wrong in my thinking, but I really wasn't sure about North Dakota, because Rick Berg is absolutely the wrong kind of Republican for the state (complete robot) and Heitkamp was the absolute right kind of Democrat for that state. I thought she had a decent chance, more than the polls gave her credit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He may have gotten Montana's senate race wrong, but I got it right! Although, we both got North Dakota wrong...

His "adjusted polling average" gave Tester a 2-point lead, but the "State fundamentals" were far off in favor of Rehberg. I think he has to reassess his averaging of the two. On the other hand, State fundamentals moved Nevada in the right direction and, had they been weighted more strongly, his prediction would have been better. It's kind of a dilemma.