If Obama was white would be have lost in 2012?

[old timey villain]

I think a white Obama would have won in 2008, maybe even by a larger margin. But would he have been able to mobilize the minority turnout necessary to win reelection in 2012?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama isn't Hispanic or Asian and he won them just fine. He'd also do better with whites. So yeah, he'd win.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

if he was white...he would look like Steve Wilkos lol

[Paul Kemp]

if he was white...he would look like Steve Wilkos lol

No, no he wouldn't.

[Mister Mets]

A White guy with Obama's background (Chicago politician, Immigrant father) probably would not have beaten Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary, as he would not have appealed to primary voters in South Carolina.

[Sbane]

A White guy with Obama's background (Chicago politician, Immigrant father) probably would not have beaten Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary, as he would not have appealed to primary voters in South Carolina.

Actually Obama had the Gary Hart coalition but he added blacks on to it. Of course the Gary Hart coalition is much stronger now than it was in 1984 on it's own, but adding blacks to it put Obama over the top. He actually did horrible with immigrants, and got blown out among Hispanics and especially Asians. He did better with working class whites as a whole.

[freepcrusher]

A White guy with Obama's background (Chicago politician, Immigrant father) probably would not have beaten Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary, as he would not have appealed to primary voters in South Carolina.

Actually Obama had the Gary Hart coalition but he added blacks on to it. Of course the Gary Hart coalition is much stronger now than it was in 1984 on it's own, but adding blacks to it put Obama over the top. He actually did horrible with immigrants, and got blown out among Hispanics and especially Asians. He did better with working class whites as a whole.

In many ways a cousin of Hart's, I've always believed that Obama's coalition is that of John Lindsay's

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You must admit that Obama's race gained him more votes than it lost him.  A lot of people were afraid of being considered racist because they didn't vote for a black candidate, so they voted for Obama.  It's kind of similar to the Bradley Effect, only instead of people lying to pollsters out of fear of being labeled racist, it's translating into actual votes.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm not going to argue that there was a "reverse-Bradley effect" or anything, but Obama was a success because he was able to become the "cool" candidate who stood for excitement and hope. Being black and breaking that barrier was an important part of that. It took Obama some time to surge into contention, and I just don't think we would have seen that surge or that rallying effect if he was white. Hillary would have been the nominee.

Still, white Obama probably would've defeated McCain if white Obama did manage to become the Democratic nominee. Maybe not as convincingly, though.

As for 2012... I don't really know.

[Lief 🗽]

If Obama were white, there wouldn't have been a Tea Party, Republican opposition to him wouldn't have been so rabid, and his first term would have been much more successful. So we would have won 2012 by a larger margin.

[old timey villain]

You must admit that Obama's race gained him more votes than it lost him.  A lot of people were afraid of being considered racist because they didn't vote for a black candidate, so they voted for Obama.  It's kind of similar to the Bradley Effect, only instead of people lying to pollsters out of fear of being labeled racist, it's translating into actual votes.

No. Conservatives like to believe this myth because it allows them to belittle Obama's popularity and electoral success as some kind of cheap novelty. If you live in the Fox News bubble you can't possibly believe that people actually like Obama for his policies, so it has to be white guilt. Besides, any white person who got off their ass for the sole reason of electing the first black president probably would have voted for any democrat in the first place.

If anything, Obama's race hurt him among white voters, and many political theorists and statisticians have come to that conclusion. What saved Obama in 2012 was historically high minority turnout for the president, which is the premise of this thread.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd say it made a difference in minority turnout. I don't really see black turning out to elect Hillary. If Obama was white, he wins by a smaller margin than IRL in 2008, and about the same margin in 2012.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama's race had two effects, one positive and one negative.

The positive is that it brought out very high turnout from African-American voters. Chances are there weren't too many conservative blacks who voted for Obama solely due to his race, but it did bring out plenty of people who probably wouldn't have voted otherwise.

On the other hand, Obama was also a victim of both covert and overt racism. Overt racism refers to the openly and proudly racist people who voted for Kerry, Gore, and Clinton, but would never vote for a black man for president. The covertly racist, which probably covers a majority of white and nonwhite voters, are those who support racial equality and may be willing to vote for a black candidate (many did in 2008 and 2012), but who can be swayed through racial code terms, like "urban crime" or "welfare queens".

[Sbane]

You must admit that Obama's race gained him more votes than it lost him.  A lot of people were afraid of being considered racist because they didn't vote for a black candidate, so they voted for Obama.  It's kind of similar to the Bradley Effect, only instead of people lying to pollsters out of fear of being labeled racist, it's translating into actual votes.

That's stupid. In the privacy of a ballot box, people will vote how they want.

[morgieb]

If he were white he wouldn't have won in 2008.

[MaxQue]

If Obama were white, Hillary would have been running for a second term in 2012.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If Obama were white, there wouldn't have been a Tea Party, Republican opposition to him wouldn't have been so rabid, and his first term would have been much more successful. So we would have won 2012 by a larger margin.

That's ridiculous.  I'm a Republican and I dont hate Obama because he's black.

[Lief 🗽]

If Obama were white, there wouldn't have been a Tea Party, Republican opposition to him wouldn't have been so rabid, and his first term would have been much more successful. So we would have won 2012 by a larger margin.

That's ridiculous.  I'm a Republican and I dont hate Obama because he's black.

Well yeah, because you're black yourself.

[tmthforu94]

It's difficult to answer this question as President Obama wouldn't have the same life story had he been white.

For the sake of argument though - pretend Obama went through much of the same steps and was elected in a different part of Chicago to the statehouse and still won in the 2004 Senate race, I have hard time believing he would have been able to beat Clinton, despite great oratorical skills:
1. A white Obama probably wouldn't have been chosen to be keynote speaker at the 2004 DNC Convention, so he wouldn't have gotten all the spotlight from that, which certainly helped launch his 2004 campaign.
2. Black support, which proved critical to Obama's narrow primary victory over Clinton, would certainly have been much lower for Obama.

IMHO, a white Obama would have taken a pass on 2008, would have been selected as Hillary's VP, and would be planning a run for 2016, where he would be heavily favored to win, similar to Gore in the 2000 Democratic primary.