The last time Republicans can hope to bank on the White Vote?

[DC Al Fine]

The last time Republicans can hope to bank on the White Vote?


It doesn't matter.

In 2012 Mitt Romney received the same-level share nationally as George Bush, from 1988, and there was a glaring difference: Bush carried 40 states and 426 electoral votes. Romney received carriage in 24 states worth 206 electoral votes.

When is the "last time Republicans can bank on the White Vote?" Well, the final numbers do get skewed with the results from the states of, say, the Old Confederacy. Plus there are states that carry for Democrats in which the white vote is won by Republicans. In the Democratic presidential pickup year of 2008, Barack Obama carried the white vote in states, plus District of Columbia, which added up to 238 electoral votes. Of those 238 electoral votes, 16 came from his Democratic pickups with Colorado and Iowa.

One person, in another thread, figures we're on an automatic two-in-a-row pattern of presidential terms won by Republicans, then Democrats, then once again with Republicans, and yet again with Democrats. (He or she is pretty confident.) This thread shows that that cannot assumed.

Well, if we use the 2008 Prez elections as the benchmark then of course the GOP starts in a deep hole. The 2008 election is pretty much the most decisive victory for either party since 1988. Not sure that is the right benchmark though in terms of what Dem can achieve in terms of White vote. I am not saying that the Dems cannot get what Obama got in 2008 in terms of the White if the right economic and political circumstances were there.  Only that the Dems does not start with that White vote in the bank.

2008 was most divisive?

Are you believing that … of do you mean 2012?

He said decisive not divisive.

[barfbag]

There's a lot of hype made about trends and demographics but it's always been wishful partisan thinking. The white vote will continuously become more conservative if the Democrats don't go back to at least where they stood on things in the 90's. The problem whites have is that we're not making up as much of the electorate as we used to. Going into election night, I predicted a Romney win, but I knew whites would have to make up 74% of the electorate and I believe they made up 73%. It's a big difference and it showed.