NH-Sen: Bradley running
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Author Topic: NH-Sen: Bradley running  (Read 586 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: August 05, 2013, 10:55:38 AM »
Breaking on Twitter. When asked if he'd challenge Shaheen, said "all the rumors are true." Still Safe D obviously.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2013, 10:57:21 AM »
Safe D? Not sure. New Hampshire is the most elastic state in the nation...
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SawxDem
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2013, 11:26:20 AM »
Quote from: MW representative windjammer on August 05, 2013, 10:57:21 AM
Safe D? Not sure. New Hampshire is the most elastic state in the nation...

Shaheen is extremely popular and comes close to breaking 55% against Bradley. In every poll she's been up by double digits, so I don't see her losing this race.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2013, 02:17:10 PM »
Likely D, I would say, and closer to Leans. Bradley has name recognition and experience running credible campaigns, and New Hampshire is the sort of state where the national environment matters far more than anything else. Polling shows Sheheen in the low 50s, which can constitute Safe if you have no credible challengers/if your state is very favorable towards your party, but certainly NH doesn't qualify.

Shaheen is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in an Obama state running for reelection.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2013, 02:17:37 PM »
Now Bradley claims he was joking.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2013, 03:15:07 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on August 05, 2013, 02:17:10 PM
Likely D, I would say, and closer to Leans. Bradley has name recognition and experience running credible campaigns, and New Hampshire is the sort of state where the national environment matters far more than anything else. Polling shows Sheheen in the low 50s, which can constitute Safe if you have no credible challengers/if your state is very favorable towards your party, but certainly NH doesn't qualify.

Shaheen is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in an Obama state running for reelection.

The way you worded that is misleading. 7 seats up held by Democrats are in states that went for Romney, and 2 other seats in "swing states"- Michigan and Iowa- are open. So yeah, Shaheen is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in an Obama state (there are only 11 total, 12 if you include NJ), but there are still 9 Democratic seats more vulnerable than Shaheen's...
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2013, 05:08:33 PM »
Lean D but likely to go any lower than that. If there's a GOP wave I think Hassan is in more danger.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2013, 05:19:44 PM »
Quote from: Sawx on August 05, 2013, 11:26:20 AM
Quote from: MW representative windjammer on August 05, 2013, 10:57:21 AM
Safe D? Not sure. New Hampshire is the most elastic state in the nation...

Shaheen is extremely popular and comes close to breaking 55% against Bradley. In every poll she's been up by double digits, so I don't see her losing this race.
But the election is still 15 months away, so anything can happen.

Quote from: Vosem on August 05, 2013, 02:17:10 PM
Likely D, I would say, and closer to Leans. Bradley has name recognition and experience running credible campaigns, and New Hampshire is the sort of state where the national environment matters far more than anything else. Polling shows Sheheen in the low 50s, which can constitute Safe if you have no credible challengers/if your state is very favorable towards your party, but certainly NH doesn't qualify.

Shaheen is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in an Obama state running for reelection.
At least you haven't written this one off yet, Vosem.  Good for you!!!
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morgieb
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2013, 05:47:42 PM »
Only a decoy unless the national climate gets ugly, in which case the Dems will lose like 10 seats.
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