What is 2014 looking like right now?

[GaussLaw]

It seems like data is all over the map.  Some polls like Politico have R + 7 on the generic ballot while on RCP there are several, including Ras (!) that have Democrats leading by 1-4 points, matching or better than in 2012.

So the polls show anything from a midterm disaster to 2014 being a better Dem year than 2012. 

Senate polls are also all over.  Arkansas polls are just getting weirder and more inconsistent, Louisiana is confusing due to the runoff, no one agrees about Kentucky(likely R to lean D) and where the polls will move there, there are still questions about how safe MT/WV/SD are for the GOP, and the viability of the GOP in CO/IA/NC/MI seems to be in constant flux. 

It's really hard to say what the 2014 environment looks like right now. 

There seems to be a lot of contradictory information, and the generic ballot is very tight with each poll swinging it one way or the other.

[bballrox4717]

You kind of just answered it for yourself. So far the environment has been volatile from week to week. I also really wouldn't trust generic ballot polling since it really doesn't matter that much. Only state and congressional polling matter right now.

There seems to be a lot of contradictory information, and the generic ballot is very tight with each poll swinging it one way or the other.

Part of this is the politicization of polling. Several polling firms have their own agenda: generating a poll that has Gardner leading Udall by 3 for example, gives donors more reason to give money to Gardner. Most of the posters around here don't trust Vox Populi polls, for instance, because it's operated by Mary Cheney and it's been releasing polls that much more Republican than others are showing. Nobody really took their poll that showed Merkeley trailing seriously.