Current Senate PVIs by state

[eric82oslo]

Here I'll publish the current Senate PVI, that is the Partisan Voting Index, of all 50 states. The way I measure it is by taking the results of the past two Senate elections (1 for each Senator) and measure the average margin of victory against the current Senate PVI for all 50 states. Here we go...

Average (Current) Senate PVI of all 50 states: D+0.074% (basically a tie!)

Alabama
Average victory: R+28.72%
Current PVI: R+28.79%

Alaska
Average victory: R+7.3%
Current PVI: R+7.37%
*Lisa Murkowski as a write-in candidate makes this one complicated to measure; I chose to ignore Joe Miller's presence as the official Republican candidate altogether

Arizona
Average victory: R+13.85%
Current PVI: R+13.92%

Arkansas
Average victory: D+19.05%
Current PVI: D+18.98%
*This one is also hard to measure, since Mark Pryor did not have a Republican opponent in 2008

California
Average victory: D+17.5%
Current PVI: D+17.43%

Colorado
Average victory: D+6%
Current PVI: D+5.93%

Connecticut
Average victory: D+11.87%
Current PVI: D+11.8%

Delaware
Average victory: D+27.02%
Current PVI: D+26.95%

Florida
Average victory: R+7.85%
Current PVI: R+7.92%
*Measuring Marco Rubio's victory is difficult due to the presence of Charlie Christ, however - as with the Alaska case above - I chose to simply ignore his presence

Georgia
Average victory: R+11.15%
Current PVI: R+11.22%

Hawaii
Average victory: D+39.22%
Current PVI: D+39.15%

Idaho
Average victory: R+34.9%
Current PVI: R+34.97%

Illinois
Average victory: D+18.86%
Current PVI: D+18.79%

Indiana
Average victory: R+4.42%
Current PVI: R+4.49%

Iowa
Average victory: R+2.82%
Current PVI: R+2.89%

Kansas
Average victory: R+33.89%
Current PVI: R+33.96%

Kentucky
Average victory: R+8.71%
Current PVI: R+8.78%

Louisiana
Average victory: R+6.25%
Current PVI: R+6.32%

Maine
Average victory: D+4.72%
Current PVI: D+4.65%
*Maine is another odd case, where the independent Angus King beat both the Republican and the Democratic candidates in 2012 - in this case I disregard the Democratic candidate and let King act as one instead

Maryland
Average victory: D+27.6%
Current PVI: D+27.53%

Massachusetts
Average victory: D+8.8%
Current PVI: D+8.73%

Michigan
Average victory: D+24.85%
Current PVI: D+24.78%

Minnesota
Average victory: D+17.35%
Current PVI: D+17.28%

Mississippi
Average victory: R+19.75%
Current PVI: R+19.82%

Missouri
Average victory: D+0.95%
Current PVI: D+0.88%

Montana
Average victory: D+24.78%
Current PVI: D+24.71%

Nebraska
Average victory: R+16.91%
Current PVI: R+16.98%

Nevada
Average victory: D+2.29%
Current PVI: D+2.22%

New Hampshire
Average victory: R+8.56%
Current PVI: R+8.63%

New Jersey
Average victory: D+15.2%
Current PVI: D+15.13%

New Mexico
Average victory: D+14.2%
Current PVI: D+14.13%

New York
Average victory: D+39.12%
Current PVI: D+39.05%

North Carolina
Average victory: R+1.64%
Current PVI: R+1.71%

North Dakota
Average victory: R+26.5%
Current PVI: R+26.57%

Ohio
Average victory: R+6.12%
Current PVI: R+6.19%

Oklahoma
Average victory: R+31%
Current PVI: R+31.07%

Oregon
Average victory: D+10.71%
Current PVI: D+10.64%

Pennsylvania
Average victory: D+3.54%
Current PVI: D+3.47%

Rhode Island
Average victory: D+38.32%
Current PVI: D+38.25%

South Carolina
Average victory: R+24.55%
Current PVI: R+24.62%

South Dakota
Average victory: R+37.51%
Current PVI: R+37.58%
*John Thune did not have any opposition in 2010, from Democrats, independents or third parties - thus the skewed average victory

Tennessee
Average victory: R+34%
Current PVI: R+34.07%

Texas
Average victory: R+14.03%
Current PVI: R+14.1%

Utah
Average victory: R+31.9%
Current PVI: R+31.97%

Vermont
Average victory: D+39.76%
Current PVI: D+39.69%

Virginia
Average victory: D+18.61%
Current PVI: D+18.54%

Washington
Average victory: D+12.47%
Current PVI: D+12.4%

West Virginia
Average victory: D+25.72%
Current PVI: D+25.65%

Wisconsin
Average victory: D+0.35
Current PVI: D+0.28%

Wyoming
Average victory: R+52.83%
Current PVI: R+52.9%

Here's a map to illustrate the current Senate PVI in each state:

The closest state: Wisconsin, where the average PVI has tilted less than 0.3% towards Democratic candidates in recent Senate elections (followed by Missouri, also within a 1% margin on average).
The most partisan state: Wyoming, where the two current Republican Senators have won their recent elections by an average victory margin of almost 53%.

[Never]

For most states, it appears that the partisanship of the Senate elections matches the party that wins the presidential election. The few exceptions I noted were MO, AK, WV, IA, OH, FL, and NH.

Virginia's PVI makes me weep.

[IceSpear]

For most states, it appears that the partisanship of the Senate elections matches the party that wins the presidential election. The few exceptions I noted were MO, AK, WV, IA, OH, FL, and NH.

Virginia's PVI makes me weep.

Don't worry, Ed Gillespie should decrease it with his landslide victory against Warner.

[Never]

For most states, it appears that the partisanship of the Senate elections matches the party that wins the presidential election. The few exceptions I noted were MO, AK, WV, IA, OH, FL, and NH.

Virginia's PVI makes me weep.

Don't worry, Ed Gillespie should decrease it with his landslide victory against Warner.

LOL, but seriously, as long as Warner is one of our senators here, Virginia will have a deep Atlas-red Senate PVI.

[eric82oslo]

Here's the same PVI map, but only including the 34 states with an upcoming Senate election (or two) this autumn [Oklahoma & South Carolina have two each]:

The 34 states ranked after their recent competitiveness:

1. North Carolina
Current PVI: R+1.71%

2. Iowa
Current PVI: R+2.89%

3. Maine
Current PVI: D+4.65%

4. Colorado
Current PVI: D+5.93%

5. Louisiana
Current PVI: R+6.32%

6. Alaska
Current PVI: R+7.37%

7. New Hampshire
Current PVI: R+8.63%

8. Massachusetts
Current PVI: D+8.73%

9. Kentucky
Current PVI: R+8.78%

10. Oregon
Current PVI: D+10.64%

11. Georgia
Current PVI: R+11.22%

12. Texas
Current PVI: R+14.1%

13. New Mexico
Current PVI: D+14.13%

14. New Jersey
Current PVI: D+15.13%

15. Nebraska
Current PVI: R+16.98%

16. Minnesota
Current PVI: D+17.28%

17. Virginia
Current PVI: D+18.54%

18. Illinois
Current PVI: D+18.79%

19. Arkansas
Current PVI: D+18.98%

20. Mississippi
Current PVI: R+19.82%

21. South Carolina
Current PVI: R+24.62%

22. Montana
Current PVI: D+24.71%

23. Michigan
Current PVI: D+24.78%

24. West Virginia
Current PVI: D+25.65%

25. Delaware
Current PVI: D+26.95%

26. Alabama
Current PVI: R+28.79%

27. Oklahoma
Current PVI: R+31.07%

28. Kansas
Current PVI: R+33.96%

29. Tennessee
Current PVI: R+34.07%

30. Idaho
Current PVI: R+34.97%

31. South Dakota
Current PVI: R+37.58%

32. Rhode Island
Current PVI: D+38.25%

33. Hawaii
Current PVI: D+39.15%

34. Wyoming
Current PVI: R+52.9%


The six most closely faught battlegrounds this year should then theoretically be North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Louisiana and Alaska. All of these except Maine, are considered top of the field battlegrounds as well, by the pundits.

I would say that most of the states in the top 24 - though obviously not all - could possibly be in play this year. All of the states from number 25 and down shouldn't even be closely competitive.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Oh no! The people of New Hampshire will surely vote to reject Shaheencare at the polls now!