In an
article by Brandon Finnegan, the question of how many Republican pick-ups in the Senate would constitute a Republican wave is raised, with a Republican gain of eight being the conclusion.
I found this part of the essay interesting:
^ I felt that this line of thinking didn't fully apply to 2010, considering how Republican candidates Angle and Buck both failed to unseat their opponents in Nevada and Colorado. Furthermore, the competitive 1994 Virginia Senate race
was a loss for Republicans despite the national wave in the party's favor that year. Clearly, election waves can wash against a sandbar in races that would be expected to flip to the opposing party.
Finnegan also points out that for 2014 to be considered a Republican wave, the Republicans cannot lose any of their currently held Senate seats and that the gain has to be large enough to not be reversed by the next cycle of races. Apparently, he feels that Illinois and Pennsylvania will be uphill battles for Sens. Kirk and Toomey in their respective states (though he fails to mention Wisconsin), so he argues that to call 2014 a wave, the GOP majority would have to be able to sustain a loss of two seats in 2016.
