WaPo model suddenly shifting in Democrats' favor
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  WaPo model suddenly shifting in Democrats' favor		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: WaPo model suddenly shifting in Democrats' favor  (Read 513 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: September 05, 2014, 07:57:02 PM »
Probably one of the least favorable models for Democrats now shows a statistically tied likelihood for Republicans to take the Senate/Democrats to hold it.

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memphis
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2014, 08:02:37 PM »
They weren't using polling data before? Were they just pulling odds out of their Inks?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2014, 09:56:25 PM »
Old news I'm afraid. Tongue

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198144.0
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2014, 10:39:47 AM »
Quote from: memphis on September 05, 2014, 08:02:37 PM
They weren't using polling data before? Were they just pulling odds out of their Inks?

Nate Silver's model in 2012 for the NY Times was based on a combination of polls and a state's "fundamentals", with the weight assigned to the polls gradually increasing until the election and the weight assigned to the "fundamentals" gradually decreasing. I think the same thing's going on here.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2014, 11:27:32 AM »
Still, you'd have to give almost no weight to polls at all to get republicans up to an 86 percent chance, especially considering they had new Hampshire at 99% D and NC at 90% D in the previous model.
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