Which Dem candidate is more likely to win?
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  Which Dem candidate is more likely to win?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who has the better odds?
#1
Begich		  
#2
Braley		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: Which Dem candidate is more likely to win?  (Read 698 times)
ShadowRocket
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« on: October 05, 2014, 03:59:33 PM »
A victory in Alaska or Iowa seems like the Democrats' best chance at limiting their losses to six seats. Between Begich or Braley, who is more likely to pull out a victory?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2014, 04:00:10 PM »
The swing-stater.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2014, 04:03:14 PM »
Ironically, it's the one who's running the worst campaign in the country, rather than the one who's running the best.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2014, 04:31:20 PM »
Braley obviously.
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SWE
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2014, 05:00:37 PM »
Begich at least has some path to victory
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2014, 05:45:41 PM »
Tough one. Probably Braley.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2014, 08:26:48 PM »
Begich also faces the fact that Alaska seems to over-poll Democrats. I mean, I'm sure his great ground game and campaign will make up for that, but I think it's Lean R at this point.

Braley faces lesser odds inpsite of running a terrible campaign, facing a Toss-up/Tilt-R. So I give it to Braley, but who knows.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2014, 08:45:57 PM »
Who has better odds at landing a lobbying gig after they're both defeated? Definitely Begich.
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Bigby
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2014, 09:09:59 PM »
I think both will lose, but Begich seems more likely to win than Braley. Braley's run a horrible campaign while Begich has only began to crack recently. If not for the recent scandal, I think Begich would still be leading. So Begich seems more likely to retain his seat, but both seem likely to lose anyway.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2014, 09:31:00 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 09:35:35 PM by smilo »
Almost certainly Beigich.
>Alaska polling
>Alaska incumbent effect
>Underrepresentation of rural areas that he will easily bring to the polls
>Was winning for most of race until post-primary

I don't see reason not to believe Iowa polls or believe that there will be major changes outside of a crazy Ernst mistake.
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2014, 10:29:31 PM »
I voted Braley, just because his opponent is much more likely to gaffe her way out of the way, Akin-style. Braley and his media allies have gotta try to set this up in the remaining debates.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2014, 10:53:50 AM »
Braley narrowly. 
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2014, 11:08:18 AM »
Braley, especially now that Ernst has been busted for using an elected position to funnel taxpayer money to her father.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2014, 11:54:29 AM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 07, 2014, 11:08:18 AM
Braley, especially now that Ernst has been busted for using an elected position to funnel taxpayer money to her father.

Interesting. Here's the story:
http://www.salon.com/2014/10/07/exclusive_contracts_awarded_to_joni_ernsts_father_raise_conflict_of_interest_questions/

I'm guessing the media outlets are checking this out first before they run with it?
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