No Watergate

[True Democrat]

1972:
After a fairly popular first term, President Nixon is destined to cruise.  McGovern is nominated by the Democrats and eventually picks Shriver as his running mate, after backing away from his first choice.  Nixon easily wins (the campaign is basically the same as it is in real life except no watergate so Nixon doesn't do quite as well).  On election day, Schmitz, a conservative third party candidate does better than expected and causes McGovern to win some extra states.

Nixon/Agnew: 58%, 456 electoral votes
McGovern/Shriver: 39%, 82 electoral votes
Schmitz/Anderson: 3%

[King]

Why did McGovern gain 2%?

[A18]

How did Watergate help Nixon in the election at all?

[MaC]

didn't people only find out about Watergate AFTER the '72 election?

[J. J.]

didn't people only find out about Watergate AFTER the '72 election?

Actually, there were suspicions and good press reporting in the summer of 1972; it might have hurt Nixon slightly, very slightly.

[J.R. Brown]

It wouldn't have effected the 1972 election as much as the 1976 election. It would definitely have changed the way in which most people rate Nixon as a president.

[12th Doctor]

What he is refering to is the Democrat conspiracy theory that Nixon beat McGovern so badly, because he knew McGovern's plan.  Its an assinine theory.

[True Democrat]

What he is refering to is the Democrat conspiracy theory that Nixon beat McGovern so badly, because he knew McGovern's plan.  Its an assinine theory.

I don't believe that theory.  I'm just offering this as an alternative election history.  I'm not saying I actually believe it.

[True Democrat]

1976:

After a successful Nixon administration, the Republicans are in great shape.  In a stunning victory in 1974, the Republicans have narrowed the Senate to 54 Democrats and 46 Republicans.  The House has remained  about the same.

In the Republican primary, the main candidates are Vice-President Spiro Agnew, Governor Ronald Reagan, and Senator Rockefeller.  Agnew does not do very well and loses the moderate vote to Rockefeller.  The conservatives align behind Reagan, and he easily wins the primaries.

Reagan: Red
Rockefeller: Blue
Agnew: Green



For the Democrats, the main candidates are Senator Walter Mondale, Senator Edward Kennedy, and Governor Robert Strob of Oregon.  The midwest goes for Mondale, the northeast for Kennedy, and the west for Strob, so the South decides the primaries.  It appears as though Mondale will win, but Kennedy pulls a surprise victory in the many Southern states and wins the election.  Another upset in Ohio seals the deal for Kennedy after he loses the Pennsylvania primary.

Kennedy: Red
Mondale: Blue
Strob: Green



Kennedy goes on to picks Maine Governor Joseph E. Brennan as his running mate.  Reagan picks Governor George H. W. Bush of Texas.  Reagan paints Kennedy as a liberal, and along with recent Republican popularity, easily wins the election.

Reagan/Bush: 55%, 402 electoral votes
Kennedy/Brennan: 44%, 136 electoral votes

[J. J.]

You've got to remember that, even in 1980,  Chappaquiddick still nagged at Ted Kennedy; he chose not to throw his hat into the ring in 1976, even though it looked like Democratic year.

Further, Agnew's problem wasn't related to Watergate.  He might have resigned in 1973 even with a popular Nixon.  The question is, would a popular Nixon have gotten his first choice for VP, John Connelly, who had just become a Republican.

[True Democrat]

You've got to remember that, even in 1980,  Chappaquiddick still nagged at Ted Kennedy; he chose not to throw his hat into the ring in 1976, even though it looked like Democratic year.

Further, Agnew's problem wasn't related to Watergate.  He might have resigned in 1973 even with a popular Nixon.  The question is, would a popular Nixon have gotten his first choice for VP, John Connelly, who had just become a Republican.

In this timeline, Agnew had no tax evasion or whatever it was.

[PBrunsel]

You've got to remember that, even in 1980,  Chappaquiddick still nagged at Ted Kennedy; he chose not to throw his hat into the ring in 1976, even though it looked like Democratic year.

Further, Agnew's problem wasn't related to Watergate.  He might have resigned in 1973 even with a popular Nixon.  The question is, would a popular Nixon have gotten his first choice for VP, John Connelly, who had just become a Republican.

In this timeline, Agnew had no tax evasion or whatever it was.

He was taking bribes as Governor of Maryland. I don't know if they could have been stopped.

[Beet]

You've got to remember that, even in 1980,  Chappaquiddick still nagged at Ted Kennedy; he chose not to throw his hat into the ring in 1976, even though it looked like Democratic year.

Further, Agnew's problem wasn't related to Watergate.  He might have resigned in 1973 even with a popular Nixon.  The question is, would a popular Nixon have gotten his first choice for VP, John Connelly, who had just become a Republican.

In this timeline, Agnew had no tax evasion or whatever it was.

He was taking bribes as Governor of Maryland. I don't know if they could have been stopped.

If Agnew had *no* scandals, he could probably would have been the 1976 nominee. Not only was Nixon grooming him to be the nominee, but he had critical support from the conservative grassroots, who looked to him as their champion at that time.

[True Democrat]

1980:

The Reagan administration has shown to be one of  the most polarizing administration in history.  Conservatives love Reagan, however moderates and liberals are not so happy with him.  For the first time in years, a sitting president faces a challenge for the nomination from his own party, in the form of California Senator Pete Wilson.  Reagan wins the nomination, but Wilson takes more states than expected.  The closest state is California, which Reagan takes by 2,000 votes.

Blue: Reagan
Red: Wilson



For the Democrats, Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia runs.  He wins upsets in both Iowa and New Hampshire, which gives him the momentum to go on to win the nomination easily, as the Democrats have created a new, fast nomination process, so they can defeat Reagan.  Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes wins a few primaries though.  Sarbanes thought he may be able to win the nomination after an upset in Pennsylvania, but it does not happen.

Red: Carter
Blue: Sarbanes



After running a successful primary campaign against an incumbent President, Senator Pete Wilson decided to run as an independent.  He picks Illinois Governor John Anderson as his running mate.  Carter decides to picks Arizona Representative Mo Udall as his running mate in an attempt to gain the west.  However, this is not  a smart move, as many northeastern moderates and liberals start to turn to Wilson.  Wilson runs an amazing campaign for an independent.  He has the support of big names like Rockefeller, which gives him great support in the northeast.  Reagan and Wilson both paint Carter as a dixiecrat, so his popularity is stuck in the South and a few states out west and in the upper midwest.  Reagan tries to appeal to moderates, but fails.  His approval is at 40%, by the time election day rolls around.  Here is his approval among all groups:

Conservatives: (34%)
90% Approve
10% Disapprove

Moderates: (44%)
30% Approve
70% Disapprove

Liberals: (22%)
5% Approve
95% Disapprove

Reagan's best area is the west, but he makes some headway in the outer south, such as Virginia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma.

On election day, no candidate gains a majority of the electoral college, and the election is thrown to the House.  Reagan does slightly better on election day than expected, and Carter does slightly worse.  It all comes down to California.  If Reagan could pull out a win, he would get the majority of the electoral college.  However, in a move different from the primaries, California goes fairly strongly for Wilson with 37 to Reagan's 34.  Wilson does not do well in small states, but in large states he does much better than expected.

Reagan/Bush: 41%, 240 electoral votes
Carter/Udall: 34%, 164 electoral votes
Wilson/Anderson: 25%, 134 electoral votes



The election is thrown to the House.  The Democratic majority should make it easy for Carter to win, but many non-Southern delegations refuse to vote for Carter.  In the end, the Democrats and moderate Republicans compromise and vote for Wilson.  In the Senate, the conervative Republicans hold 39 seats, with moderates holding 4, and Democrats 57.  Again, Democrats refuse to vote for Udall.  The conservatives amazingly convince all but one Republican and 10 Democrats to vote for Bush as Vice-President, who is elected by a vote of 52-48.

So the new administration is Wilson/Bush.

[ATFFL]

You've got to remember that, even in 1980,  Chappaquiddick still nagged at Ted Kennedy; he chose not to throw his hat into the ring in 1976, even though it looked like Democratic year.

He had Kennedy lose PA in the general which makes this timeline better than almost every "Teddy for Pres" TL in existence.

[True Democrat]

You've got to remember that, even in 1980,  Chappaquiddick still nagged at Ted Kennedy; he chose not to throw his hat into the ring in 1976, even though it looked like Democratic year.

He had Kennedy lose PA in the general which makes this timeline better than almost every "Teddy for Pres" TL in existence.

Kennedy lost the primary in Pennsylvania too.

[A18]

Why would the Reagan administration be any more polarizing than it was in the 80s?

[J. J.]

Agnew, like Cheney, had disclaimed any presidential run.  1976 would be, potentially, like 2008 is expected to be.