The Ascendant

[NHI]

Signed. Sealed. Delivered.

Excerpt from the Book: Shakeup "The Election of 2012"


At precisely eleven o'clock on the east coast the networks across the board and across the spectrum projected Barack Obama the winner of the 2012 Presidential Election. His campaign had been confident in the final weeks, but much like four years earlier were nervous about a possible surprise. However, the election turned out as expected, Obama soundly defeated Jeb Bush in an electoral landslide, ending twelve years of Republican rule.

✓ Barack Obama: 318 (54%)

Jeb Bush: 86 (46%)

"Historic!" "Magnificent!" "Wow!" Some of the words used to describe the size of Obama's victory, not to mention the historic implications of his election as the nation's 45th President. "America, we've come a long way," Obama told supporter in Chicago. "We've walked many miles, we've traveled far and wide, the journey has been long and hard, but we've made a great stride tonight and tonight also I say this is not the end of something but the beginning of everything. Tonight, America we take a giant step into a new direction."

Jeb Bush concedes the Presidency to Barack Obama.

The defeat of Bush ushered in an end to Republican dominance at the Presidential level and putting the party in a new and uncertain direction heading into the latter half of the second decade of the 21st century. The old guard had fallen. Jeb Bush, a moderate figure by most conservative standards suffered a crushing electoral and popular defeat, bringing many grassroots Republicans to pin much of their disappointments on the former Florida Governor.

"Palin would have won the election," said a prominent campaign adviser in the Palin Presidential Campaign. "She had the hearts and minds of the Republican Party, Jeb did not."

"Soul searching is good for the party," MSNBC's Chris Matthews said the day after Obama's election. "The party didn't do this after Bush because McCain won, so much of what was bubbling under the surface was pushed aside."

The Bush loss brought down Republican congressional and senatorial candidates and expanded the Democratic map into places not won in twenty years. Georgia voted for Obama (50.9% to 47.6%) over Bush, the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992. States also joining the roster included Montana (49.9% to Bush's 48.6%). The same was true for Missouri, which last voted for a Democrat in 1996. (Obama won 50.2% to 48.3%) North Carolina voted for a Democratic for the first time since Jimmy Carter and both Indiana and Virginia (two Republican faithfuls) broke a tradition going back to 1964. (IN: 50.0% to 48.1%; VA: 52.5% - 45.9%).

Amazingly, Obama even managed to stomp Bush in both Dakotas, two states which hadn't gone for the Democrats since 1964. Obama even scored one of Nebraska's five electoral votes (51.9% to 47.0%). Perhaps the biggest shocker came in Arizona, the first time it voted for a Democrat in sixteen years, the last one being Bill Clinton. Arizona, the home state of Barry Goldwater, Mr. Conservative himself and of incumbent President and former Senator John McCain -- the Republican stronghold went fairly easily for Obama, with the Illinois Governor winning 51.2% to Bush's 47.4%.

Bush's greatest personal defeat came with his loss in his own home state. The networks finally projected the Sunshine State (49.61% to 49.14% the next day at 2:14 in the afternoon, delivering one last bit of crushing news to the former Governor. While popular in his time, the campaign and the impressive feat of Obama's victory made it impossible for Bush to withstand the loss even in his home state.  2012 marked the worst electoral defeat for a Republican candidate since 1992, ironically Jeb Bush's father PresidentGeorge H.W. Bush. (Bush 41 lost to Clinton 379-168, and won on 37% of the popular vote compared to Clinton's 43%).

Nevertheless, Bush was gracious in defeat and praised Obama for his victory and pledged full and complete support of "the man who will be the President not for some but for all." Even in defeat, Bush remained a class act, though personally the loss was almost unbearable.

"It's the fringe element," Bush told his closest staff after the election. "They drove me to the brink." While many tried to pin the election under Obama's historic nature it was hard to disavow for even some of the fiercest Republican supporters the potential realignment underway.

"The Reagan era is done. Republicans fell asleep as the wheel and now we're paying the price," said former Reagan Campaign manager and adviser to Sarah Palin. "John McCain ran as a different Republican four years ago, but truly he just got lucky and was able to hold onto the Bush coalition and win, that coalition does not exist anymore. The Republican party needs to reorganize and refocus otherwise it's going to be a long time before we ever win again, because elections like this ones are not flukes."

Republicans fell into despair, while Democrats seemingly at the height of political zenith relished an opportunity to usher in a new age of liberalism, not seen since the golden age of Lyndon Johnson. Obama's election, not only defined by his nature as the nation's first black president, marked a much needed turning point, putting the country on a fundamentally different path.

This is no longer about dynasties. This is no longer about power couples. This is about people. It's about all of us. It's America.

✓ Barack Obama: 405 (54.1%)

Jeb Bush: 133 (44.3%)

Ushered on a wave of history, and ready to lead with a promise of a bolder tomorrow, Barack Obama took office in 2013 with a watching country and world waiting to see the next chapter in American history. "We are going to write this history together," Obama said during his Inaugural Address. "We will do it not as partisans, but as one people -- Americans."

[tmthforu94]

Bravo!!

[NHI]

Passing of the Torch, McCain was said too have been pleased with Obama's win over Bush", saying to aides "This country doesn't need another Bush."

2016 Election Matchups
Obama: 54% (+14)
Palin: 40%

Obama: 53% (+15)
Huckabee: 38%

Obama: 54% (+16)
Romney: 38%

Obama: 54% (+15)
Crist: 39%

Obama: 55% (+16)
Sununu: 39%

Obama: 55% (+16)
Ryan: 39%

Obama: 55% (+20)
Collins: 35%

Excerpt from the book: Obama, Power, Struggle and Victory

Early polling prospects put Obama as a shoe-in for reelection, still many political analyst argued a lot could change between Inauguration Day 2013 and Election Day 2016, still Obama looked strong. Sitting a top a 70% approval rating the Democratic President looked to hit the ground running by focusing on his domestic agenda, while tending to the difficulties of managing a war in Afghanistan and Iraq.

"This is damned hard," Obama said to his circle of advisers after meeting with Senate and House Republicans shortly after taking office. "We won the election and they're still giving it to me." Faced with the prospects of a testy Republican minority, Obama looked to exert his authority and range over a party still reeling from it's electoral landslide defeat in the previous election. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell lamented on the floor of the Senate, "We are going to fight tooth and nail for our values and our vision," but House Minority Leader John Boehner echoed a different sentiment behind closed doors with the new President. "We will work with you."

Those were fighting words to Republican rank and file who did not want the increasingly minority party to cede any ground to the new President. "Fight him," Palin said at a Republican organizing event in Jacksonville, Florida in 2013. "We have got to stand up for ourselves."

By contrast, more moderate Republicans like Senator Charlie Crist of Florida and Senator Susan Collins of Maine took a different approach. "We can have disagreements and passionate debates, but at the end of the day unless we control the White House things will be difficult," Senator Collins said on Meet the Press. Being one of only a few prominent Republicans made her a high profile guest of the Sunday shows, as well as Charlie Crist, who like Collins seemed to be positioning themselves as Presidential contenders in 2016.

The same could be said for Palin, who after narrowly losing to Jeb Bush in 2012 was gearing up for another run at the top job.

"If they want this job," Obama said of any Republicans, "good luck to them."

CPAC STRAW POLL: 2013

Sarah Palin: 46.9%

Ted Cruz: 31.9%
Paul Ryan: 10.0%
Rand Paul: 4.1%
Other: 2.9%
Mike Huckabee: 2.3%
Charlie Crist: 0.9%
 

Who is Ted Cruz?

Excerpt from the book: Jumbled: Republicans' Road to the White House

Sarah Palin, the former Vice President remained an important figure in conservative political circles, especially after what many considered a grand theft by the Republican establishment in 2012 when Jeb Bush won the nomination over her. Palin kept herself relevant, by supporting conservative candidates and appearing on all the Sunday and talk shows promoting her cause. In 2014 she authored a book, "Going Rogue" part memoir and part political strategy book. When asked of her presidential ambitions Palin did not remain coy. "I'm looking at it seriously," she said. "We need a conservative candidate, for a change."

One of those conservative candidates who was appearing on the radar was Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Elected in 2012, after winning an upset election in the Republican primary, in part thanks to Sarah Palin's endorsement, the Texas Senator earned a reputation as a "conservative maverick" willing to buck his party at any cost. "We must stand for something as a party otherwise we will be nothing," Cruz said to CPAC attendees in 2013. The Conservative Political Action Conference is a gathering yearly for all the nation's top conservative and Republican activists and one of the most covered events is the annual straw poll. Palin, who spoke at the conference, as expected won, but perhaps the biggest surprise was Ted Cruz's second place finish, which many attributed to his rousing speech a few days beforehand.

"We must not surrender one inch to the liberals in the Democratic Party and not one inch to the liberals in the Republican Party either, I might add," Cruz said to thunderous applause. By contrast Palin delivered a fairly common speech at that point. Attacking the Obama Administration as a "big government, liberal, tree-hugging machine," while Cruz on the other hand attempted to draw a clear contrast with the President and those in his own party. "We are the conservative party, therefore we must be the conservative alternative and the conservative vision," Cruz said, "and it is our job here today to begin by defining what it means to be not a Republican, but a conservative!"

Cruz's CPAC speech seemed to launch him from relative obscurity into the political arena and while Palin still amassed a strong following and support, Cruz was slowly following behind nipping at her heels and planning his own run for the Presidency.

It came as no surprise when the conservative firebrand launched his candidacy in January of 2015, one month after Republicans made in roads in the midterm elections, (giving them control of the House) but still failed to halt the Democratic control of the Senate.

Ted Cruz For President.

The Texas Senator Calls for a Return to "Constitutional Principles!"

Excerpt from the book: The Vice President For President

...Ted Cruz running for President not only blindsided Palin, but it hurt her on a personal level. She went out on a limb for Cruz, even in the midst of her own Presidential campaign to support him, and then in the fall campaigned around the state for him and was credited with pushing him over the top. She felt betrayed, annoyed and damaged by his sudden rise to the top.

The thinking on the Cruz campaign was simple, get in early, rally conservatives and box out Sarah Palin before she could even test the water herself.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm hopeful Obama will be a better President. Will we see the Cabinet soon?

[NHI]

The Cabinet of Barack Obama

Pres. Elect Barack Obama selected Senator John Kerry to serve as his Secretary of State. Kerry ran for and lost his bid to become the nation's President in 2004, but remained an active member of the United States, especially on the Committee of the Foreign Relations. Kerry credibility and cross the aisle appeal to the position and Obama was praised for his pick.

Chief of Staff: Denis McDonough

Vice Pres: John Lynch  
Sec. of Treasury: Ronald Wyden
Sec. of Defense: Chuck Hagel (* Holdover from the McCain Administration)
Attorney General: Deval Patrick
Secretary of Interior: Sally Jewel
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack
Secretary of Commerce: Laura Tyson
Secretary of Labor: Kathleen Sebelius
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Hillary Clinton
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Cory Booker
Secretary of Transportation: Anthony Foxx
Secretary of Energy: Frank Klotz
Secretary of Education: Paul Vallus
Secretary of Veteran's Affair: Tammy Duckworth
Secretary of Homeland Security: Janet Napolitano


The Presidency of Barack Obama: The First 100 Days Plan
- Stabilize the U.S. Economy
- Healthcare Reform
- Banking/Wall Street Reform

[NHI]

Obama Signs into Law Stimulus Packages, Says it will "Help US economy"

Obama in March of 2013.

Obama Nominates Sonia Sotomayor to Replace John Paul Stevens on Supreme Court

Obama and Sotomayor in June 2013.

Obama-Cares: New Health Law, Signed. Sealed. Delivered

Feb. 2014 -- Pres. Barack Obama makes good on his promise of Universal Health coverage, despite opposition from Republicans.

House Goes GOP in 2014 Midterms

Nov. 2014 -- Obama's approval ratings reach a low of 47%, amid sluggish economy.

Obama Looks to Reagan

Feb. 2015 -- President Obama and his team are looking to the Presidency of Republican Ronald Reagan for a way to flip the narrative on a President elected in a landslide and who already seems past him prime. "Reagan started a movement," said new Chief of Staff Rham Emanuel who replaced Denis McDonough. "We want to transform the Democratic party much like Reagan did to the GOP."

Justice is Served.

April 2015 -- Obama Addresses the nation.

[NHI]

Palin Up for Round Two

Excerpt from the Book: Jumbled: Republicans' Road to the White House

...Sarah Palin launched her bid for the Presidency in June of 2015, running as a staunch conservative promising to "stand up to Barack Obama and his big government liberalism and crony capitalism." However, many Republican conservative stalwarts seemed to have moved beyond the former Vice President and one time Presidential candidate, following the emergence of Texas Senator Ted Cruz who referred to himself, as "the real deal" while barn storming much of Iowa during the summer of 2015. "I am not a pretender," Cruz told Evangelical voters in Iowa, "I am fighter and I am true to my word. My word is my bond and my bond is the Constitution."

Being a fresh face didn't hurt either, given Palin's familiarity by the time of the 2016 Election. The former Vice President seemed tired, tried and merely running for the sake of running. Nevertheless her nature as the former Vice President ensured her the status of front runner, something which in 2016 was more of a weight than an asset.

Moderate Hero

Excerpt from Jumbled: Republicans' Road to the White House

...Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz would be battling for the conservative vote in the Republican primary, which left the moderate and establishment lanes of the Republican primary field wide open. Prominent Senators such as South Dakota's John Thune and Maine's Susan Collins both flirted with potential bids, with the latter going so far as to launch an exploratory committee, but she ultimately pulled the plug. This vacuum allowed Ohio Governor John Kasich an opening and thus he threw his hat into the ring, promising to "bring the middle of the country together and heal divisions on both the right and left sides."

While conservatives believed a strong contrast should be offered to run against Barack Obama, who saw his approval ratings rebound as the early primary season began in the summer of 2015, however Kasich saw his path to victory but running as a moderate Republican, who would not undo Obama's administration objectives, but instead work to manage them as well as providing a government "that works." Parroting George W. Bush's 2000 'compassionate conservative' line, Kasich referred to himself as "a Republican who likes to get things done."

Gary Johnson For President

Former NM Governor and libertarian leaning Republican Gary Johnson announced his campaign for President.

Rising Cain

Businessman and radio personality Herman Cain entered the Presidential race with a long shot bid, pledging to "run Washington like a real smart and fast business!"

Excerpt from Jumbled: Republicans' Road to the White House

..."We have a rag-tag band of candidates," said one Republican strategist as spring turned to summer and summer turned to fall. "We have a President who can be defeated and we're running not the B team but the D or F team." Obama's approval ratings on the rise, despite a sluggish economy looked to be in a better position. "We're just going to keep doing what we're doing," Obama said to his close campaign staff once the Republican field finalized.

Republican Primary Poll: July 2015

Sarah Palin: 27% (+11)
Ted Cruz: 16%
John Kasich: 11%
Herman Cain: 4%
Gary Johnson: 3%
Undecided: 39%

Iowa Caucus Poll: July 2015

Sarah Palin: 27% (+9)
Ted Cruz: 18%
John Kasich: 9%
Herman Cain: 6%
Gary Johnson: 3%
Undecided: 37%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: July 2015

Sarah Palin: 19% (+4)
John Kasich: 15%
Ted Cruz: 11%
Gary Johnson: 7%
Herman Cain: 4%
Undecided: 44%

South Carolina Primary Poll: July 2015

Sarah Palin: 27% (+10)
Ted Cruz: 17%
John Kasich: 9%
Herman Cain: 7%
Gary Johnson: 4%
Undecided: 36%

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich: Now More Than Ever

[Captain Chaos]

Shouldn't the polls be dated July 2015?

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

How did McCain win?

The only way McCain can win in 2008 is this:

1. Big Terrorist attack
2. No recession
3. Palin is more competent in interviews and seems fit to be president
4. McCain has a Reaganesque moment in one of his age questions
5. Obama makes gaffe similar to Romney (47%)

And all of these has to happen at the same election. Sorry, but short of ASB, it is hard impossible for McCain to win without those 5 things happening

[NHI]

Kasich Aims to be a Different Republican

... the John Kasich campaign believed the way to beat Obama was not to run as this hard-right, ultra conservative candidates, but instead to appeal to the middle electorate. In many ways to run as Dwight Eisenhower had in 1952, by saying he would not undo the work of the Obama Administration entirely, but instead make it more effective and run it better. "I don't want to see people suffering and dying on the streets," Kasich told a crowd in New Hampshire. "We need a safety net, we have to have one. The real debate in this election is to make it work and work right for all of us."

Kasich, a moderate intended to highlight his effective stewardship as Governor of Ohio, while offering substantive critiques of President Obama on issues like trade, tax cuts and spending. "I am not going to attack him for his foreign policy, it's a largely non-issue," Kasich told his staff during a campaign strategy meeting. "There's no winning on that argument with us. We'll be more effective to focus on the domestic front."

For Kasich, however facing Obama meant winning the Republican Primary, a herculean task in 2016. The conservative base went into turmoil after what many considered a lackluster ticket by Jeb Bush in 2012 and the disappointing Presidency of John McCain, and were ready to reclaim the party. However, with the candidacies of Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin dividing up the conservative voting bloc, Kasich saw an opening which meant surviving Iowa, and then winning New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Republican Primary Poll: September 2015

Sarah Palin: 27%
Ted Cruz: 24%
John Kasich: 17%
Herman Cain: 7%
Gary Johnson: 5%
Undecided: 20%

The Battle for Relevancy

Sarah Palin became a political rockstar when John McCain selected her to be Vice President in 2008. Her near-historic bid for the Republican nomination solidified her status, but with her defeat in the primary and the emergence of Ted Cruz Sarah Palin found it increasingly difficult to remain relevant to a conservative base that had seemingly moved on from her to the new flavor of the month, Cruz.

Palin's own shortcomings as a candidate, as well as her ties to the McCain Administration gave some conservatives pause. "She is too tied in with the Washington DC crowd," said Cruz supporter Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. "Ted is an outsider. He's stood up to the DC insiders and will do so for the American people."

The Know-Nothing Candidate

...despite a surge in the polls after his entrance in the race, Herman Cain dropped quickly after demonstrating a lack of basic understanding or knowledge of foreign and domestic policy. His tax plan, dubbed 9-9-9 (which would replace all federal taxes with a 9% rate) came under attack from both Ted Cruz and John Kasich who criticized the plan as "funny numbers" and "only a slogan".

Live Free or Die Candidate

...running on little money and barely no campaign infrastructure former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson hunkered down in the Granite State, pinning his presidential hopes on the all-important New Hampshire Primary. "This is a state where liberty is not just talked about, but actually thrives and is a way of life." Playing on the libertarian mindset of the state was seen by many as a shrewd move by Johnson, but with little name-id and lack of a campaign Johnson's chances were slim.

Ted Cruz: All in For Iowa

...the campaign for Iowa would be a contest between Former Vice President Sarah Palin and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Palin, had long ties to the state, stemming from the 2008 race and her own bid in 2012, where she defeated Governor Jeb Bush by more than ten points. However, the evangelical support which voted heavily for Palin four years earlier, trended towards the Texas Senator. Cruz crisscrossed the state, making the trek to all 99 counties and putting in the most effort of any candidates.

Iowa Caucus Poll: October 2015

Sarah Palin: 28%
Ted Cruz: 27%
John Kasich: 14%
Herman Cain: 9%
Gary Johnson: 3%
Undecided: 19%

Debate-Flop

Excerpt from the book: Jumbled: Republicans' Road to the White House
...the first Republican debate was held in Ames, Iowa and by all accounts Sarah Palin delivered a cringe-worthy performance. One Republican strategist called her debate performance "horrific" and the next day the New York Times summed up Palin's candidacy with a simple, but effective headline: PALIN FLOPS. The Former Vice President, appeared confused at points, and even gave long, rambling answers. When pressed by Ted Cruz on her changing position on immigration reform, ( specifically building a border-wall she responded) in Palin-esque fashion. "I've always been for immigration, I'm just for right and strong immigration reform."

The debate debacle in Iowa hurt Palin in the polls, so much so she avoided the next set in South Carolina and New Hampshire. She lashed out at the media, blasting their "unfair treatment!" The debate flop dogged Palin and as a result Cruz surged.

"She's hurt beyond repair," said GOP strategist and Former McCain Campaign manager Steve Schmidt. "I think she has no place to go but down."

Fox News Republican Primary Poll

Ted Cruz: 28%
Sarah Palin: 25%
John Kasich: 17%
Herman Cain: 7%
Gary Johnson: 4%
Undecided:  19%

Ted Cruz: Conservative Choice

Ted Cruz: 38%
Sarah Palin: 27%
John Kasich: 20%
Herman Cain: 8%
Gary Johnson: 4%
Other: 3%

..."God Bless the great people of Iowa," declared Ted Cruz on Caucus night. The Texas Senator ran away with the contest, romping Former VP Palin across the board, winning in all demographics and voting groups. Shortly after the polls closed, Cruz was declared the winner, capturing the Caucuses with 38% of the vote, compared to Palin's 27%. Palin, did not speak from Iowa, in Caucus night, but instead issued a campaign statement from South Carolina.

"We congratulate Ted Cruz on his victory in Iowa. We look forward to a fierce campaign ahead in the next forty-nine states."

Her campaign decided to pull out of Iowa, one week before the primary, instead moving the focus to the state of South Carolina. She visited the state once more on the eve before the vote, but then headed immediately to South Carolina. Campaign internal polls showed Palin losing 33% to 29%, but not the crushing defeated rendered by Cruz in the final result.

The breadth of Cruz's victory gave his campaign a strong boost in the polls and strength heading into the next states. "We are going to take our message to every corner of this country, so we can rally all Americans and take back the White House from Barack Obama and the Democratic order - so help me God!" Immediately, Cruz cemented his status as the conservative choice, as well as a strong contender for the Republican nomination.

Polls prior to Iowa showed a narrow lead for Palin, despite her debate fumbles and fluttering campaign, followed by Cruz and Kasich, but following Iowa Cruz jumped to the lead.

Republican Primary Poll: Feb. 2016 (Cruz+5)

Ted Cruz: 29%
Sarah Palin: 24%
John Kasich: 19%
Herman Cain: 6%
Gary Johnson: 3%
Undecided: 19%

Kasich Surging in New Hampshire

The OH Governor staked his entire bid on the NH Primary.

WMUR Republican Primary Poll: February 2016

John Kasich: 26%
Ted Cruz: 20%
Sarah Palin: 18%
Gary Johnson: 8%
Herman Cain: 3%
Undecided: 25%