Which current lean GOP state has the potential to become Scott Walker-fied?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Wisconsin's political situation seems to have changed quite considerably from 2008-2016. The Tea Party wave was very powerful in this lean blue state and has shifted Wisconsin's state and local politics considerably to the right under the rule of Scott Walker and the state GOP.


So is there any current lean GOP state that could become dramatically shifted to the left from 2018-2024? If so which states are the likely contenders? I'm talking about a state that's lean GOP at the presidential level becoming a state trifecta for the Democratic Party by 2022 and a swing state by 2024.

[Skunk]

If Cooper turns out to be a really successful Governor then maybe North Carolina.

[Person Man]

It could be Florida if the local party is able to deal with the incompetence and corruption.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I have wondered about this question before. The state right now that seems to be most similar to Wisonsin's position in 2008 seems to be Iowa. Obama won it by double-digits in 2008, but the GOP wave absolutely turned it around. Trump's favorables are underwater in Iowa even though he won it by almost 10 percent. Trump also got fewer votes there than Obama did in 2012.

The next most likely I see is Ohio. While I don't see it taking quite a dramatic shift that Wisconsin did in 2010, I can see Dems taking the Governor's mansion, and at least shrinking the GOP majorities in the legislatures, possibly allowing Dems to have a say over the legislative districts.

The third most likely may be Wisconsin itself. From what I've heard, the state party is working to become competent again, and the state legislative lines are gonna be redrawn. The saving grace for the GOP might be that the Democratic bench has been decimated here. There's no really good candidates for Governor as of now.

[Mr. Smith]

NC or Georgia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and ME 2 aren't Lean GOP, but Iowa and Ohio are: and WI will become a new bellweather of the election

[libertpaulian]

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada

[Person Man]

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada

Nevada is kind of already there. Their assembly just passed a bill allowing open enrollment into Medicaid. It will probably be vetoed by their Pro-Choice Republican Governor.

Like I said, Florida could go on that list, but someone has to really throw over the table.

[Young Conservative]

It could be Florida if the local party is able to deal with the incompetence and corruption.

Lol. No. Swing state forever.

[Person Man]

It could be Florida if the local party is able to deal with the incompetence and corruption.

Lol. No. Swing state forever.

Exactly. Right now, it doesn't feel like a swing state...it feels like Indiana or Missouri  right now.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, Florida ain't happening.  Way too many near unanimous R wealthy retirees for that.

If I had to pick one, I would go with Arizona.  The 2012-16 swing was massive, the legislative maps actually lean toward Democrats there (and they did prior to the 2011 redistricting as well, so there is something inherent about the state's geography going on here as well), and Maricopa County threw out Arpaio.  Because Phoenix is such a huge proportion of the state's population, getting ~5% more in Maricopa would seal the deal for AZ Democrats on all fronts.

Georgia is the next best opportunity for this, but the Republican majorities in the legislature are just huge, so I don't that flipping by 2022, even if Democrats are regularly winning statewide by then.

I will believe a shift in NC precisely when I see it.  Right now, I think 2008 was just a fluke.

[Tekken_Guy]

NC, GA, and AZ, of course.

[Person Man]

Yeah, Florida ain't happening.  Way too many near unanimous R wealthy retirees for that.

If I had to pick one, I would go with Arizona.  The 2012-16 swing was massive, the legislative maps actually lean toward Democrats there (and they did prior to the 2011 redistricting as well, so there is something inherent about the state's geography going on here as well), and Maricopa County threw out Arpaio.  Because Phoenix is such a huge proportion of the state's population, getting ~5% more in Maricopa would seal the deal for AZ Democrats on all fronts.

Georgia is the next best opportunity for this, but the Republican majorities in the legislature are just huge, so I don't that flipping by 2022, even if Democrats are regularly winning statewide by then.

I will believe a shift in NC precisely when I see it.  Right now, I think 2008 was just a fluke.

That's an issue with all sun belt places. Greying populations. 

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, Florida ain't happening.  Way too many near unanimous R wealthy retirees for that.

If I had to pick one, I would go with Arizona.  The 2012-16 swing was massive, the legislative maps actually lean toward Democrats there (and they did prior to the 2011 redistricting as well, so there is something inherent about the state's geography going on here as well), and Maricopa County threw out Arpaio.  Because Phoenix is such a huge proportion of the state's population, getting ~5% more in Maricopa would seal the deal for AZ Democrats on all fronts.

Georgia is the next best opportunity for this, but the Republican majorities in the legislature are just huge, so I don't that flipping by 2022, even if Democrats are regularly winning statewide by then.

I will believe a shift in NC precisely when I see it.  Right now, I think 2008 was just a fluke.

That's an issue with all sun belt places. Greying populations. 

Hmmm... It's definitely not true of Texas or Georgia.  Somewhat true of AZ, but nothing really compares to FL on that front in the South. 

[BuckeyeNut]

WI and ME 2 aren't Lean GOP, but Iowa and Ohio are: and WI will become a new bellweather of the election

Not what the OP seems to be asking...

[Skill and Chance]

WI and ME 2 aren't Lean GOP, but Iowa and Ohio are: and WI will become a new bellweather of the election

Not what the OP seems to be asking...

This poster is likely a bot.

[Person Man]

Yeah, Florida ain't happening.  Way too many near unanimous R wealthy retirees for that.

If I had to pick one, I would go with Arizona.  The 2012-16 swing was massive, the legislative maps actually lean toward Democrats there (and they did prior to the 2011 redistricting as well, so there is something inherent about the state's geography going on here as well), and Maricopa County threw out Arpaio.  Because Phoenix is such a huge proportion of the state's population, getting ~5% more in Maricopa would seal the deal for AZ Democrats on all fronts.

Georgia is the next best opportunity for this, but the Republican majorities in the legislature are just huge, so I don't that flipping by 2022, even if Democrats are regularly winning statewide by then.

I will believe a shift in NC precisely when I see it.  Right now, I think 2008 was just a fluke.

That's an issue with all sun belt places. Greying populations. 

Hmmm... It's definitely not true of Texas or Georgia.  Somewhat true of AZ, but nothing really compares to FL on that front in the South. 

I thought a lot of olds liked NC for some reason and that AZ population was old too. I wonder how people living linger change this.