Obama voters from liberal, mainline Protestant denominations

[TDAS04]

What percentages do you estimate that Barack Obama received in 2012 from members of the following denominations?

United Church of Christ
The Episcopal Church
Evangelical Lutheran Church in America
Presbyterian Church USA
United Methodist Church

You can add others if you want.

I would be surprised if Obama did not win a majority of members from the first two.  It can be tricky to estimate percentages, and they would certainly differ based on geographical location.  UMC members are probably the most conservative of the five due to a strong presence in the South.

[DC Al Fine]

FTR: Romney won white non-Evangelical Protestants by about 55-45.

I think you are right that UMC is the most conservative as they are the only one with a significant Evangelical presence.

After that I'm not sure. We have to be careful to differentiate between the denomination's leadership and it's makeup. Each denomination has a mix of "social justice" congregations and "church is the respectable thing to do" congregations. The Episcopal Church leadership is very liberal but I'm sure it has a lot of country club Republicans too. The key would be to figure out the mix in each group.

[Indy Texas]

The UCC is the only one I'd be willing to say that Obama probably won. They have always been a liberal denomination, mainly in the Northeast and Midwest. Their predecessors were the Unitarians and Congregationalists - in an earlier era, these people were very liberal Republicans.

UMC is basically an evangelical/conservative denomination in much of the South. Regardless of what the national leadership does/says, if you go to a UMC church in a small town in Texas or Alabama, their views on religion as it relates to society and culture are pretty indistinguishable from evangelicals. Sure they may disagree with the Southern Baptists on how to serve communion or the exact explanation of Original Sin or something, but that's not influencing how people vote.

Plenty of politically conservative country club Republicans in the South. Think of people like Haley Barbour or Saxby Chambliss.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ELCA was definitely Obama. He couldn't have won Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa otherwise.

[RFayette]

PCUSA would have been for Romney, almost certainly.  The leadership-local divide there is enormous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let's take a look at the ARDA numbers.

Episcopalian: http://thearda.com/mapsReports/maps/ArdaMap.asp?Map1=290&map2=&alpha=

Based on the distribution, appears pretty D. It's obvious how the ones in New York and New England voted, Pennsylvania's are all concentrated in metro Philly, Florida's are mostly concentrated in Democratic areas (aka not the panhandle), Virginia's in NoVA, Georgia's in inner metro Atlanta. California is more skewed SoCal, but I doubt there the ones voting Republican there. I suppose it's possible the more southern ones might be R-leaning, but not enough to cancel out the northeastern ones.

PCUSA: http://thearda.com/mapsReports/maps/ArdaMap.asp?Map1=551&map2=&alpha=

Largest state is Pennsylvania, and there I'd guess Obama since the largest concentration is Philly area...but there are a lot in those counties around Pittsburgh that swung heavily against him. Not many in the "T" though. North Carolina is second, and there I'd guess Romney, but less than whites in the state. Texas' are obviously Romney, and in Florida they probably skew rather old. Overall probably for Romney, but I doubt as much as rfayette is making it sound.

ELCA: http://thearda.com/mapsReports/maps/ArdaMap.asp?Map1=317&map2=&alpha=

I'm not giving an inch on this one being for Obama, and the data backs me up. Very low presence in the south. Top states are Minnesota, Pennsylvania (hmmm a bit out of place) and Wisconsin. Actually the Pennsylvania numbers appear to be mostly concentrated in conservative German areas (not surprising) so that might skew it a bit, but considering how R the other Germans are in those areas I can't see them being that R. Also worth noting per the 2008 exit polls Obama won non-evangelical white Protestants in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa with around 57-60%, and while I don't have exit polls in 2012 the swing wasn't large enough to make that not the case. So you have the largest non-Pennsylvania states voting around 55% Obama...even if the Pennsylvania ones are as R as those counties R it's not enough to cancel it out.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

United Church of Christ - Obama 55%
The Episcopal Church - Obama 50%
Evangelical Lutheran Church in America - Obama 50%
Presbyterian Church USA - Obama 45%
United Methodist Church - Obama 35%

It's worth noting that the bulk of "members" are almost certainly non-believers or unconcerned about Christianity. Non-believing members of the Episcopal or Presbyterian Church or the UCC are almost certainly Democrats: all of these denominations are known for their educated/white collar profiles. As a result, I'd wager that the average PCUSA member is much more liberal than the average churchgoing Presbyterian.

These denominations share little in common imo. The theology of these churches may be somewhat similar but the demographic profile of the Episcopal church is really distinct from the demographic profile of the ELCA.

ELCA - the church of Scandinavians from all class backgrounds.
Episcopal Church - wealthy, upper middle class WASPs from both the South and New England. I could easily imagine Episcopal members overwhelmingly supporting Romney. I could also imagine them backing Obama.
PCUSA - tends to attract educated, white collar members; especially in the South. This was certainly the case in my congregation. There were quite a few liberals, some moderate Republicans and quite a few conservatives. I'd say that my congregation was 50-50 in 2008.

I don't know much about Methodists or the UCC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ELCA would have to be around 53% or so Obama. Even that's assuming quite Republican outside the Midwest.

[Green Line]

United Church of Christ - Obama 55%
The Episcopal Church - Obama 50%
Evangelical Lutheran Church in America - Obama 50%
Presbyterian Church USA - Obama 45%
United Methodist Church - Obama 35%

It's worth noting that the bulk of "members" are almost certainly non-believers or unconcerned about Christianity. Non-believing members of the Episcopal or Presbyterian Church or the UCC are almost certainly Democrats: all of these denominations are known for their educated/white collar profiles. As a result, I'd wager that the average PCUSA member is much more liberal than the average churchgoing Presbyterian.

These denominations share little in common imo. The theology of these churches may be somewhat similar but the demographic profile of the Episcopal church is really distinct from the demographic profile of the ELCA.

ELCA - the church of Scandinavians from all class backgrounds.
Episcopal Church - wealthy, upper middle class WASPs from both the South and New England. I could easily imagine Episcopal members overwhelmingly supporting Romney. I could also imagine them backing Obama.
PCUSA - tends to attract educated, white collar members; especially in the South. This was certainly the case in my congregation. There were quite a few liberals, some moderate Republicans and quite a few conservatives. I'd say that my congregation was 50-50 in 2008.

I don't know much about Methodists or the UCC.

You should be careful calling them "non-believers".  About 90% of Americans are still believers, and  not being active in a church does not make someone a "non-believer".  Most Americans still believe in God or a god.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll admit I find TheDeadFlagBlues saying his congregation was 50-50 in 2008 a little jarring since I'm too used to church congregations being basically 100% for either side.

[DC Al Fine]

United Church of Christ - Obama 55%
The Episcopal Church - Obama 50%
Evangelical Lutheran Church in America - Obama 50%
Presbyterian Church USA - Obama 45%
United Methodist Church - Obama 35%

It's worth noting that the bulk of "members" are almost certainly non-believers or unconcerned about Christianity. Non-believing members of the Episcopal or Presbyterian Church or the UCC are almost certainly Democrats: all of these denominations are known for their educated/white collar profiles. As a result, I'd wager that the average PCUSA member is much more liberal than the average churchgoing Presbyterian.

These denominations share little in common imo. The theology of these churches may be somewhat similar but the demographic profile of the Episcopal church is really distinct from the demographic profile of the ELCA.

ELCA - the church of Scandinavians from all class backgrounds.
Episcopal Church - wealthy, upper middle class WASPs from both the South and New England. I could easily imagine Episcopal members overwhelmingly supporting Romney. I could also imagine them backing Obama.
PCUSA - tends to attract educated, white collar members; especially in the South. This was certainly the case in my congregation. There were quite a few liberals, some moderate Republicans and quite a few conservatives. I'd say that my congregation was 50-50 in 2008.

I don't know much about Methodists or the UCC.

You should be careful calling them "non-believers".  About 90% of Americans are still believers, and  not being active in a church does not make someone a "non-believer".  Most Americans still believe in God or a god.

Sure, but that doesn't necessarily make them believing/practicing Christians.

[DC Al Fine]

Related to Deadflag's point about active vs. inactive.

The PCUSA and PCA have very similar demographic profiles, but per capita giving is more than double in the PCA. While this is hardly a perfect measure, it suggests there are a lot of nominal PCUSA members dragging down the average.