Operation Chaos: Voters that hate Trump going to vote for Trump

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-protest-campaign-disdain-213247

There are Republicans that want to show the establishment what's up, even though they hate him.
Latinos that hate him that think he would be easy for Hillary.
People that just think he's funny.

If Hillary wraps up the nomination early, seems even more likely Trump will be the nominee.

[Cory]

This is my plan if the SC Democratic primary isn't close. Just like I voted for Gingrich in 2012 to spite Romney.

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, I bet that a significant portion of Trumps supporters are Republicans who hate him but are giving a middle finger to the establishment, Democrats attempting to sabotage the Republicans, general protest voters, and people saying they'll vote for him because they think its funny.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, I bet that a significant portion of Trumps supporters are Republicans who hate him but are giving a middle finger to the establishment, Democrats attempting to sabotage the Republicans, general protest voters, and people saying they'll vote for him because they think its funny.

I am skeptical of the "Democrats attempting to sabotage the Republicans" part being a real phenomenon.  Do those people really exist in large #s outside of internet messageboards?  I know that there was some evidence that there were some Republicans voting Clinton in some of the later primaries in 2008, to sabotage Obama.  Looking at the exit polls in later primary states like Mississippi, this seemed to be a real phenomenon, even though the actual number of voters involved was small.  Yet is there otherwise much historical precedent for this?  Or at least, is there much evidence for this affecting polling this far in advance of primary day?

I also think that people taking the process more seriously as election day approaches is a real phenomenon, but I'm doubtful that a significant fraction of people supporting Trump in opinion polls are consciously trolling.

[bobloblaw]

Carville laughs at this nonsense. He says it is hard enough to get your own voters to vote for your side's candidate. There is no way the other side shows up to vote for the other side's candidates.

[HillOfANight]

Yeah, I bet that a significant portion of Trumps supporters are Republicans who hate him but are giving a middle finger to the establishment, Democrats attempting to sabotage the Republicans, general protest voters, and people saying they'll vote for him because they think its funny.

I am skeptical of the "Democrats attempting to sabotage the Republicans" part being a real phenomenon.  Do those people really exist in large #s outside of internet messageboards?  I know that there was some evidence that there were some Republicans voting Clinton in some of the later primaries in 2008, to sabotage Obama.  Looking at the exit polls in later primary states like Mississippi, this seemed to be a real phenomenon, even though the actual number of voters involved was small.  Yet is there otherwise much historical precedent for this?  Or at least, is there much evidence for this affecting polling this far in advance of primary day?

I also think that people taking the process more seriously as election day approaches is a real phenomenon, but I'm doubtful that a significant fraction of people supporting Trump in opinion polls are consciously trolling.

It's probably small in the grand scheme of things because no campaign has ever officially tried it. Not sure on the legality?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/it-looks-like-african-americans-really-did-help-thad-cochran-win/
However, Thad Cochran has had success with the reverse (getting Democrat support to survive the tea party).

[Mr. Morden]

It's probably small in the grand scheme of things because no campaign has ever officially tried it. Not sure on the legality?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/it-looks-like-african-americans-really-did-help-thad-cochran-win/
However, Thad Cochran has had success with the reverse (getting Democrat support to survive the tea party).

Most of the black "supporters" of Cochran legitimately preferred him to McDaniel, even if they were never going to vote for either in the GE.

I don't think that's the same thing.  Choosing the lesser of two evils in the other party's primary is different from trying to sabotage the other party by picking their less electable candidate.

EDIT: The 2000 GOP presidential primary in Michigan is another example.  Some Dems tried to organize for McCain in order to give Engler (the then-governor and a big Bush supporter) a black eye.  But I'm guessing most of those Dem. voters legitimately would have preferred McCain as president to Bush.  So it was easier to motivate them.  Motivating people to vote for the greater of the two evils--the opposition party candidate who you like least--because they're less electable....that's probably a good deal harder.

[HillOfANight]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/former-doj-attorney-wrong-to-suggest-poll-workers-should-block-dems-from-mississippi-primary

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/08/12/did-sen-claire-mccaskill-confess-to-illegal-campaign-coordination/

It does seem like a lot of trouble if Hillary were to go out of her way to announce to her supporters to go vote for Trump, as Thad did in Mississippi (though he was asking for support, not steering it toward a crazy like Claire McCaskill did).

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm skeptical that there are Republicans who hate him but want to piss off the party establishment.