Far northern New York

[Torie]

Of course, the other important thing to note is that in Massachusetts and New Hampshire (and in parts of Vermont as well), the Democratic-voting culture comes from the fact that these areas were seriously industrialized. Of course these areas have been more successful than most of the rust belt at retooling their economies, but there lies the root of much of rural New England's liberalism as opposed to some Birkenstock Belt nonsense.

Torie's argument is one that attempts to geographically delimit a new current of Northeastern liberalism that is distinct from the ethnic politics and urban machines of the early 20th century. This new phenomenon has far more to do with affluence, education and recreation than with industrial geography or sociology, which is, I suppose, the inspiration for Torie's awkward term "Birkenstock belt". There are reasonable critiques to be made as to where the "Belt" begins and ends, and as to which communities are sufficiently or insufficiently "Birkenstock", but not that the phenomenon exists, or that there is a large region of New England in which the Democratic Party has found transformative success in appealing to new demographics.

Moreover, Birkenstock strikes me as a symbol that is too indebted to a political moment of the GWB era - insofar as it was invoked by conservatives to caricature Northeastern liberals as effete and impotent with regard to foreign interventions in the so-called War on Terror, in contrast to Bush's perceived image of resolve and rural toughness - to accurately describe the phenomenon in question. Perhaps "Subaru Belt" would be more appropriate.

I'd appreciate it if Torie could explain exactly what he means by "Birkenstock Belt", in both sociological and electoral terms, so that we aren't guessing quite so much about his intentions.

Sorry you don't like the term. It came from Michael Barone. Anyway, I thought I did describe the culture. I sort of live in it. It has an usual number of liberal gentry, but into nature, the environment, green issues, self sustainability, very liberal socially and gay friendly, into the arts and culture (many are artists themselves of all sorts), and not into ostentation, and not hard driving careerists (although the some of the second home folks are, but when up here, they want to chill anyway, so it's all good).

Culturally, I find it very congenial, although I am not a Green type at all really. But I enjoy the people personally. My town has a split personality, with a white working class, and lower middle class holding the government jobs, a substantial black community, and Bangladeshi community that is largely poor, along with the liberal white gentry and artist community (a non-trivial percentage of it being gay). Which is what makes its politics so interesting - and challenging. And my block with my arrival and a few others, now has a bit of all of that - it's almost a microcosm of Hudson, at least for the moment. I find it quite a unique environment actually. Hope that helps.

GHW Bush in 1988 I noticed ran reasonably well in the Berkshires, so it is a rather recent phenomenon, and no doubt Dubya, with his style, and his wars, did much to accelerate the political transition. But I think the newcomers pouring in, while rust belt industries faded away, along with many of the former workers, has had more to do with it.

[muon2]

Universities fit, and liberal recreational areas fit in the Belt mentality, but government workers in prisons and blue collar manufacturing types do not. So it is a matter of what is driving up the Dem vote in the NE corner of NY. Dartmouth is a part of the belt's expansion into NH, but the belt runs down much of the river valley there next to Vermont.

A look at the data makes it hard to see how Clinton, Franklin, and northern Essex don't fit in with VT. The prison in Essex sits right between Saranac Lake (Franklin and Essex) and Lake Placid whose ski town residents will dominate any vote from the guards, and certainly fit the Birkenstock Belt model as much as any ski town in VT. Clinton NY seems to have a similar, but slightly more rural demographic than Crittenden VT, but otherwise I don't see how to differentiate it from the land across the lake.

So it would seem. Although not eligible geographically to be part of the belt anyway, Massena does seem to still be an industrial town however, which would not fit.

I also note that Clinton, Franklin, and Essex all swung towards Obama in 2012 - that seems a sign of increased "Birkenstocking". In 2012 there is a contiguous string of towns over 60% Obama linking southern Franklin/NW Essex to Plattsburgh, so it is arguably no island separated from the Belt.

This is a map of the 60+% towns (dark) and 55-60% towns (light) that look like they deserve inclusion in the Belt.

[Torie]

Universities fit, and liberal recreational areas fit in the Belt mentality, but government workers in prisons and blue collar manufacturing types do not. So it is a matter of what is driving up the Dem vote in the NE corner of NY. Dartmouth is a part of the belt's expansion into NH, but the belt runs down much of the river valley there next to Vermont.

A look at the data makes it hard to see how Clinton, Franklin, and northern Essex don't fit in with VT. The prison in Essex sits right between Saranac Lake (Franklin and Essex) and Lake Placid whose ski town residents will dominate any vote from the guards, and certainly fit the Birkenstock Belt model as much as any ski town in VT. Clinton NY seems to have a similar, but slightly more rural demographic than Crittenden VT, but otherwise I don't see how to differentiate it from the land across the lake.

So it would seem. Although not eligible geographically to be part of the belt anyway, Massena does seem to still be an industrial town however, which would not fit.

I also note that Clinton, Franklin, and Essex all swung towards Obama in 2012 - that seems a sign of increased "Birkenstocking". In 2012 there is a contiguous string of towns over 60% Obama linking southern Franklin/NW Essex to Plattsburgh, so it is arguably no island separated from the Belt.

This is a map of the 60+% towns (dark) and 55-60% towns (light) that look like they deserve inclusion in the Belt.

That hole around Saranac is rather large. How close was that area to 60%? Ditto as to the lighter green areas to the south and north?  One option is just draw in the border next to darker green area, which an non belt island. It depends on how much the percentage difference is between the island and the balance. I know Plattsburgh is way up there, so that is more about the lighter green rural areas versus the darker green rural areas. If the numbers drop from say 66% to 56%, then we need an island. The variegation is enough.

[muon2]

The dark green area is 122K and and the light green is 36K in population.

The southernmost light green town there is Crown Point at 2K. It is closer to 55% than to 60%, so you could drop it by your standards. However, it has the road and bridge to VT, so I'm betting it will continue to pick up folks from the Belt.

Of the light green towns next to Canada (7K), only Burke town in Franklin wasn't just under 60% in 2012.

The western light green town is Bangor and Obama had 59.5% of the two-party vote in 2012.

The south-central pocket (Lewis and Chesterfield) has about 6K inhabitants and Obama had 58.3% of two-party vote, so that seems like it really isn't a separate island.

The big Saranac pocket is 21K and includes almost 4K of inmates where the infamous escape occurred this year. Of the four towns in the pocket Dannemora and Schuyler Falls (6K without the inmates) were over 58% and Saranac and Peru (11 K) were under 58%. You can decide if those numbers matter for inclusion in the Belt.

[homelycooking]

I didn't know that it was an op-ed generalization, or that it wasn't yours. I suppose I've been unfair to you, then. Apologies. Still don't agree with you about Pittsfield, though.

[jimrtex]

I'd appreciate it if Torie could explain exactly what he means by "Birkenstock Belt", in both sociological and electoral terms, so that we aren't guessing quite so much about his intentions.

Sorry you don't like the term. It came from Michael Barone.

I assume it is a play on "Borscht Belt".

[Torie]

Speaking of this creeping Birkenstock belt into the NE corner of NY, the Dems in the face of an amazingly vicious Pub state senate gerrymander, won but 3 seats in upstate NY, one in inner city Buffalo, one in inner city Albany, and guess where else? No, it was not in inner city Rochester or Syracuse or Ithaca. All of those areas were multi chopped with amazingly brazenness. Rather it was in this NE corner, where the Dem won by a few votes, after an extra 70 votes were found somewhere, so the Pub who had been sworn in already, had to leave. Obviously the Pub line drawing pen did not adequately account for the trend. Their bad. The gerry is so amazingly good, that the Dems are totally shut out of Long Island, and barely won a Westchester seat. The Pubs have 3 seats in Staten Island and Brooklyn. You can see the remnants of their gerrrymander trying to get a slice of Queens plus Howard Beach and so forth, but the Dem tide now there is beyond any the power of any gerrymanderer's lines.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Speaking of this creeping Birkenstock belt into the NE corner of NY, the Dems in the face of an amazingly vicious Pub state senate gerrymander, won but 3 seats in upstate NY, one in inner city Buffalo, one in inner city Albany, and guess where else? No, it was not in inner city Rochester or Syracuse or Ithaca. All of those areas were multi chopped with amazingly brazenness. Rather it was in this NE corner, where the Dem won by a few votes, after an extra 70 votes were found somewhere, so the Pub who had been sworn in already, had to leave. Obviously the Pub line drawing pen did not adequately account for the trend. Their bad. The gerry is so amazingly good, that the Dems are totally shut out of Long Island, and barely won a Westchester seat. The Pubs have 3 seats in Staten Island and Brooklyn. You can see the remnants of their gerrrymander trying to get a slice of Queens plus Howard Beach and so forth, but the Dem tide now there is beyond any the power of any gerrymanderer's lines.

Ballotpedia tells me that the state senator for this area is a Republican named Betty Little, though?

[Torie]

Speaking of this creeping Birkenstock belt into the NE corner of NY, the Dems in the face of an amazingly vicious Pub state senate gerrymander, won but 3 seats in upstate NY, one in inner city Buffalo, one in inner city Albany, and guess where else? No, it was not in inner city Rochester or Syracuse or Ithaca. All of those areas were multi chopped with amazingly brazenness. Rather it was in this NE corner, where the Dem won by a few votes, after an extra 70 votes were found somewhere, so the Pub who had been sworn in already, had to leave. Obviously the Pub line drawing pen did not adequately account for the trend. Their bad. The gerry is so amazingly good, that the Dems are totally shut out of Long Island, and barely won a Westchester seat. The Pubs have 3 seats in Staten Island and Brooklyn. You can see the remnants of their gerrrymander trying to get a slice of Queens plus Howard Beach and so forth, but the Dem tide now there is beyond any the power of any gerrymanderer's lines.

Ballotpedia tells me that the state senator for this area is a Republican named Betty Little, though?

Oh, right you are. My bad. It was district 46 that slipped away from the Pubs by a hair, which takes in much of Ulster County.

[Hydera]

There seems to be a pattern between democratic counties in New England and French canadian ancestry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Birkenstock is kind of a weird term to associate with the area. Wearing Birkenstocks strikes me more as a soccer mom thing.

[Figueira]

There seems to be a pattern between democratic counties in New England and French canadian ancestry.

I'm not seeing much of a correlation.

[Sol]

French Canadian ancestry in New England often patterns with old industrial areas. Which does not seem to be the same with French ancestry here.

[Figueira]

French Canadian ancestry in New England often patterns with old industrial areas. Which does not seem to be the same with French ancestry here.

I think French, French Canadian, and Canadian are pretty much synonyms as far as New England ancestry is concerned. It's true that the French-speaking areas along the Canadian border generally vote Democratic (see the town- and precinct-level maps of northern Maine) but they aren't solely responsible for the entire region's Democratic leaning.

[Sol]

French Canadian ancestry in New England often patterns with old industrial areas. Which does not seem to be the same with French ancestry here.

I think French, French Canadian, and Canadian are pretty much synonyms as far as New England ancestry is concerned. It's true that the French-speaking areas along the Canadian border generally vote Democratic (see the town- and precinct-level maps of northern Maine) but they aren't solely responsible for the entire region's Democratic leaning.

Fair point. I was alluding more to the historical phenomenon of Quebecois migration to New England. For example, the Lewiston area was a major center of French Canadian migration, and now keeps fairly democratic voting patterns despite it being socially conservative in many respects.