Does anyone have any ideas on how this one will go? There's definitely going to be a swing to the Republicans, with the only question being how large it'll go. I think there's a decent chance it'll be a single digit victory for the Dems.
Is there a long-term Democratic decline in the state?
I say no. Yeah, demographically you may think so because Chicago is declining in population, but the culture in the suburbs is changing. I lived up there (in Palatine) until last year. The suburbs are becoming less religious and more racially diverse, and with that, they're getting bluer. President Obama actually carried Palatine, once a Republican bastion, in 2008, though Romney did carry it in 2012. Look at the map of Mark Kirk's statewide victory. I think he won Palatine by 20 points. These are areas where Republicans must run up big margins in order to offset Chicago.
Could it happen? Sure, but it'd take Republicans doing something different. One thing in their favor is that I don't think post-Obama Dems will do as well outside of Cook County as Obama did. Urban blue-collar counties like Peoria have flipped to red. But Republicans will have to increase their appeal to minorities to win statewide in a presidential year.
