Canada 2015 in a two party system.

[Sorenroy]

So I wanted to make a map of the liberal vs conservative parties of Canada, but I'm not exactly how they would line up. If you had to split the five major, as in they won seats, parties into two groups, what would they be? My assumption is that the Liberal (duh), Green, and New Democratic parties would all be on the liberal side, and the Conservatives on the other, but where do the Bloc Québécois fall? Also, am I wrong on any of the others?

[Derpist]

There is a good chunk of the Liberal Party that would vote Conservative over NDP.

[Fight for Trump]

Based on the Liberals' current position which is arguably to the left of the NDP, if there was a merger, they'd consolidate the left and move even further left. BQ voters would mostly join them as well. The Conservatives would take back the disaffected Red Tories who defected post-merger and return closer to the Tory tradition rather than small-c conservativism. You'd probably see districts like Newmarket-Aurora, Central Nova and Kings-Hants return to the Conservatives, while the Liberals would do better in the West.

[MaxQue]

There is a good chunk of the Liberal Party that would vote Conservative over NDP.

Yes, but not in 2015. Conservatives lost because them and Harper were unpopular (and ecomony beginning to crash 2 monhs before the election didn't help). Government approvals were pretty much equal to Conservative share in polls and the Liberal landslide happened because people wanted to get rid of that government very badly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Based on the Liberals' current position which is arguably to the left of the NDP, if there was a merger, they'd consolidate the left and move even further left. BQ voters would mostly join them as well. The Conservatives would take back the disaffected Red Tories who defected post-merger and return closer to the Tory tradition rather than small-c conservativism. You'd probably see districts like Newmarket-Aurora, Central Nova and Kings-Hants return to the Conservatives, while the Liberals would do better in the West.

The Liberals are not to the left of the NDP. It's just a matter of rhetoric. Big reason why the NDP lost last year.

[Sorenroy]

Thanks for the responses. I decided to use IRV polling from EKOS and maybe Forum Research and Nanos Research, but as someone who is not Canadian, what are the opinions on these polling groups. Are they good, bad? Here are the polls I'm looking at:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/category/second-choice/
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/305/nearing-majority-with-stronghold-in-bc/
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-tracking-liberals-hit-election-high-1.2610732

and potentially, because the numbers are similar, a poll from 2011

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2009/04/second-choice-poll.html

Am I missing anything important/what are your opinions?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I work for EKOS, so...

Also threehundredeight is worse than Nate Silver. Do not trust.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a good chunk of the Liberal Party that would vote Conservative over NDP.

There's also a surprisingly large chunk of NDP support that would vote Conservative over Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

Am I missing anything important/what are your opinions?

One caveat. Changing the party system would change how the parties themselves act.

Let me use this model to demonstrate.

The Tories have a base with the most right wing 30% of the electorate. To win a majority government in the current system they need to convince the 10% immediately to their left to vote for them. In a pure two party system they would be aiming for 50-55% of the vote, requiring another 10-15% of voters closer to the centre, or even slightly left of centre. The Tories would presumably shift to the left to compete for those voters.

Obviously this model is over simplifying things, but over the long term in a two party system, its safe to say the ~60-40 advantage the left currently enjoys would deteriorate.

[adma]

And it also depends on *types* of leadership.  Like, if Vancouver Quadra or St. Paul's remained "left", they'd be more Blairite than Corbynite.

[Derpist]

There is a good chunk of the Liberal Party that would vote Conservative over NDP.

There's also a surprisingly large chunk of NDP support that would vote Conservative over Liberal

Yeah, that's probably a good summary of my politics.

[Sorenroy]

Am I missing anything important/what are your opinions?

One caveat. Changing the party system would change how the parties themselves act.

Let me use this model to demonstrate.

The Tories have a base with the most right wing 30% of the electorate. To win a majority government in the current system they need to convince the 10% immediately to their left to vote for them. In a pure two party system they would be aiming for 50-55% of the vote, requiring another 10-15% of voters closer to the centre, or even slightly left of centre. The Tories would presumably shift to the left to compete for those voters.

Obviously this model is over simplifying things, but over the long term in a two party system, its safe to say the ~60-40 advantage the left currently enjoys would deteriorate.

I know it's not perfect, I was just aiming for what it might look like if Canada used a ranked ballot system. But you make an excellent point. If there is a ranked ballot system in any country, it will change how those parties operate as they will try to appeal to a wider audience of voters (not necessarily a bad thing, but interesting nonetheless.

Also, thanks to everyone for their responses. Unless I hear anything else, I'll just use the top three pollsters I listed (EKOS, Forum Research, and Nanos Research).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There is a good chunk of the Liberal Party that would vote Conservative over NDP.

Very true. There is solid percentage of Liberals who hated Harper, but think the NDP is a bunch of commies and would bolt to the 'pro business' party. These would allow the new Tory party to do a lot better in the Toronto suburbs and exurbs.

[Sorenroy]

Well, I work for EKOS, so...

Also threehundredeight is worse than Nate Silver. Do not trust.

Sorry for bothering you specifically Hatman, but as an employee for EKOS, do you perchance have crosstabs for second choice by both first choice and region? For example, looking at the full report for the last poll before election day, only 3.3 percent of people who said that their second choice would be the Bloc Québécois, however in the simple crosstabs 13.2% of people in Quebec said that the Bloc Québécois were their second choice and every other region had it as 0.0% as the Bloc Québécois were not running there.

[2952-0-0]

The Bloc also indulged in the Muslim-baiting that Harper desperately hoped would re-elect him, so I'm not sure it belongs in the "left" category.

FWIW, it was Harper's life-long aspiration to turn Canada into precisely a two-party system. He reasoned that, as long as the Liberals remained as a major centrist force, it would continue as the Natural Governing Party. But if the Liberals went the way of the UK Liberals, the Conservatives would hold a natural advantage over the NDP and win "three out of four elections".

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I work for EKOS, so...

Also threehundredeight is worse than Nate Silver. Do not trust.

Sorry for bothering you specifically Hatman, but as an employee for EKOS, do you perchance have crosstabs for second choice by both first choice and region? For example, looking at the full report for the last poll before election day, only 3.3 percent of people who said that their second choice would be the Bloc Québécois, however in the simple crosstabs 13.2% of people in Quebec said that the Bloc Québécois were their second choice and every other region had it as 0.0% as the Bloc Québécois were not running there.

I do have access to the data of course, but it is proprietary info. I might be able to answer some yes/no questions though in an effort to interpret the data.

[Kingpoleon]

Quebec obviously has a much more viable independence movement, as its votes and MPs decide governments.

[Sorenroy]

Well, I work for EKOS, so...

Also threehundredeight is worse than Nate Silver. Do not trust.

Sorry for bothering you specifically Hatman, but as an employee for EKOS, do you perchance have crosstabs for second choice by both first choice and region? For example, looking at the full report for the last poll before election day, only 3.3 percent of people who said that their second choice would be the Bloc Québécois, however in the simple crosstabs 13.2% of people in Quebec said that the Bloc Québécois were their second choice and every other region had it as 0.0% as the Bloc Québécois were not running there.

I do have access to the data of course, but it is proprietary info. I might be able to answer some yes/no questions though in an effort to interpret the data.

Well, I'll take what I can get. So I guess the most basic question would be: was the second choice of each party similar across the different provinces? I mean, obviously, different areas had different levels of support, but did it come from the same sources? Like, did second choice Green Party voters in British Columbia, for example, mostly come from the NDP (NDP second choice was 13.1% Green nationwide, the highest of any group), or was it more from a different group altogether?

If I didn't explain that right I can try again. Or maybe someone else can help me out.