Gingrich on Trump vs. Clinton

[SillyAmerican]

In an interview the other day, Newt Gingrich offered the following comments on Trumps polling numbers and chances of winning the nomination:

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Will Trump be able to "climb his way" to respectability? And once the nomination is secured by one of the remaining three, do you think Gingrich is right to question whether Mrs. Clinton will be able to survive the GE, given her "core vulnerabilities"?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ronald Reagan was an elected official already and was there in 1975 with Gerald Ford. Trump hasnt held any public office.

[Fight for Trump]

Trump will never be respectable, but he's still more respectable than Gingrich.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

So..._trump and Ronald Reagan are not exactly the same person... _trump will have to overcome the most massive amount of unfavorables. Reagan was also ahead by the end of the primaries. Only thing that can hand him the election is a massive Hillary scandal breaking.

[Old Man Willow]

Romney got a higher % of the white vote than Reagan 1980 and he still lost.

[Wiz in Wis]

Romney got a higher % of the white vote than Reagan 1980 and he still lost.

Ronald Reagan was a talented communicator, successful governor, and consistent Republican. Trump is none of those. Also, highly doubtful that Iran will do Trump a solid and hold some 100+ Americans hostage.

[Shadows]

Trump is disaster but the think is Hillary is a pathetic candidate as well. Trump being way worse is expected to lose, so in the end he needs some mess up with the Clinton email or something. I find it very difficult to see Trump winning despite Hillary's issues!

[jaichind]

While I think a Clinton-Trump race might be closer than the current polls project, Gingrich's logic does not work because of Trump's high negatives.  I am pretty sure even when Reagan was way behind in early 1980 his negatives were nowhere as high as Trump today.  This makes a dramatic turnaround a lot more difficult to engineer. 

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ronald Reagan gave his seminal speech on the case for conservatism - A Time for Choosing - sixteen years before the 1980 election.  He had been governor of the nation's largest state.  He had already been through a presidential primary campaign.  He was an established conservative, a seasoned politician, and had more qualifications for the office of President than Barack Obama did in 2008. [edit: or Carter did in 1976.  Or W did in 2000.]

Trump's got nothing.  He's a vulgar reality star, a real estate mogul of dubious success, and a foul-mouthed tabloid sensation.  There's no comparison.

[Torie]

Shut up Newt.

[IceSpear]

I see Newt no longer believes in early polls. I wonder why?

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[EliteLX]

Ronald Reagan gave his seminal speech on the case for conservatism - A Time for Choosing - sixteen years before the 1980 election.  He had been governor of the nation's largest state.  He had already been through a presidential primary campaign.  He was an established conservative, a seasoned politician, and had more qualifications for the office of President than Barack Obama did in 2008. [edit: or Carter did in 1976.  Or W did in 2000.]

Trump's got nothing.  He's a vulgar reality star, a real estate mogul of dubious success, and a foul-mouthed tabloid sensation.  There's no comparison.

Said it best.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Actually a huge reason for Reagan being behind so much in late 79/early 80 is that the public rallied around the flag and Jimmy Carter after the Iranian hostage crisis. People forget now because they turned against Carter later on, but the rally around the flag effect helped Carter beat Kennedy in the primary and lead Reagan in the polling.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

In an interview the other day, Newt Gingrich offered the following comments on Trumps polling numbers and chances of winning the nomination:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Will Trump be able to "climb his way" to respectability? And once the nomination is secured by one of the remaining three, do you think Gingrich is right to question whether Mrs. Clinton will be able to survive the GE, given her "core vulnerabilities"?

He's had 45 years to climb to respectability and failed. I don't think another six months will help.

[Adam Griffin]

The electorate was a lot more fluid in 1980. Specifically, the most fluid part of the electorate at that point was the region that violently swung away from Democrats in the 1960s, swung back to Carter to help give their native son a victory, and then soundly rejected him in the 1980 election. We don't have entire blocs of the country that exhibit such behavior anymore. When your net favorables are 30-40 points below where you'd like them to be and you're 10-15 points behind in hypothetical GE polling - in a country where at most 10% of the voting population can truly be persuaded to change their minds - it's highly unlikely that such ground can be made up barring a massive sea-shift.