Will the GOP have an open convention?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, Trump needs 56-62% of the remaining delegates in order to clinch the nomination without needing to go through an open convention, do you think we will have a nominee at the end of the primary season, or are we going to an open convention?

[President Johnson]

Not 100% sure, but I think TRUMP will get to the 1,237. The remaining contests are favorable for him except Indiana and a few small states.

[Xing]

It's looking more likely, but we probably won't be sure until CA votes.

[DemPGH]

If DJT cleans up in NY he's back on track. I realize every bit counts, especially with people wanting to take it off of him, but let that fall where it may and it's not like Cruz won the lottery or anything with WI. Trump is still way ahead and in a much better situation than Cruz. Play with the lead. Trump has to not be baited into outbursts by these smarmy, sleazy talk show types and the big one is, he has to get back to the message that got him here. It positively resonated, and his supporters are not going anywhere.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Regardless of what happens in the northeast, Indiana will knock him off track, and California will derail him completely.

[Likely Voter]

On MTP Daily NBC's Chuck Todd laid out their "optimistic" estimates for Trump's future, assuming he wins 10 of 18 remaining states including all the big states and they and gave out some pretty generous delegate totals (especially on the west coast)...

State  Trump Delegates (*wins state)
CO   5
WY   0
NY*   75
MD*   32
CT*   20
PA*   17
DE*   16
RI*   10
IN   12
NE   0   
WV*   30
OR   14
WA   20
CA*   120   
NJ*   51
NM*   16
MT   0
SD    0

And still Trump ends up with 1194 (or 43 short).

But even with that, Trump could still win on the first ballot by swaying unbound delegates. He would 1/3 or maybe just 1/5 of them  (depending on how many end up bound).

So while there is a very good chance Trump comes up short, there is still a reasonably good chance Trump wins on the first ballot. So that is still an 'open convention' but it isn't the total flustercluck of going to multiple ballots.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If DJT cleans up in NY he's back on track. I realize every bit counts, especially with people wanting to take it off of him, but let that fall where it may and it's not like Cruz won the lottery or anything with WI. Trump is still way ahead and in a much better situation than Cruz. Play with the lead. Trump has to not be baited into outbursts by these smarmy, sleazy talk show types and the big one is, he has to get back to the message that got him here. It positively resonated, and his supporters are not going anywhere.

I don't think he can get back on message, because he never actually had a message to begin with. Trump's campaign was based on reflexive, kneejerk appeal. Yes, he hit a few sweet spots, but they aren't going to be enough to get him the nomination cleanly, and his MO is actively hurting his chances of broadening his appeal. (But if he tries to change, it just does even more damage.)

Trump's shot was to hope the field stayed divided long enough for him to get enough delegates, and it has come very, very close to doing so. But I don't think its going to be quite enough.

[Senator Spark]

Absolutely

[SillyAmerican]

On MTP Daily NBC's Chuck Todd laid out their "optimistic" estimates for Trump's future, assuming he wins 10 of 18 remaining states including all the big states and they and gave out some pretty generous delegate totals (especially on the west coast)...

State  Trump Delegates (*wins state)
CO   5
WY   0
NY*   75
MD*   32
CT*   20
PA*   17
DE*   16
RI*   10
IN   12
NE   0   
WV*   30
OR   14
WA   20
CA*   120   
NJ*   51
NM*   16
MT   0
SD    0

And still Trump ends up with 1194 (or 43 short).

But even with that, Trump could still win on the first ballot by swaying unbound delegates. He would 1/3 or maybe just 1/5 of them  (depending on how many end up bound).

So while there is a very good chance Trump comes up short, there is still a reasonably good chance Trump wins on the first ballot. So that is still an 'open convention' but it isn't the total flustercluck of going to multiple ballots.

Yeah, if Trump gets to within 50 votes, I gotta believe he'll be able to sway enough unbound delegates to vote his way, thus avoiding the need for multiple ballots. I also gotta believe that such an occurrence would be a positive thing for the GOP, which doesn't need the additional craziness of Trump feeling like he was "robbed" of the nomination.

[dax00]

Currently: 758
Projection (*-win)
CO - 4
WY - 1
NY* - 81
CT* - 25
DE* - 16
MD* - 29
PA* - 17
RI* - 8
IN - 15
NE - 0
WV* - 31
OR* - 13
WA* - 24
CA* - 111
MT - 0
NJ* - 51
NM - 9
SD - 0
Uncommitted - 36 (PA - 17, ND - 4, Guam - 2, A Samoa - 3, V Islands - 3, OK - 3, NV - 3, NH - 1)

Total - 1229

If Trump wanted to, I'm sure he could buy off 8 delegates at a premium...

I am not close to certainly knowing whether or not the RNC would need multiple ballots.

[Lyin' Steve]

I hope so.  I want to see Stone's days of rage.

Will they?  It's 80-90% likely at this point.  Trump has to pull off a series of victories, none of which is particularly difficult on its face but the combination of which leaves little room for error.  It's not as hard as the Sanders path since at least these are all states where he's polling well and he's a crafty guy.  But he also has to deal with the fact that the margin is likely to be extremely close and the party will do whatever it can to nickel-and-dime him.  Skim off a dozen delegates here or there and stop him from becoming the nominee.  Maybe they'll even change the rules to unbind delegates on the first ballot.  I wouldn't put it past them.