Help from my fellow atlas forum contributors

[PresidentTRUMP]

I live in District 3 on Long Island. I am having trouble finding polling for each district for New York. I would like to vote for the candidate in the primary that would have the best chance of taking a delegate or two from Trump.

Right now I am going to vote for Kasich but would def. vote for Cruz if he is polling better in that district with a better chance of winning a delegate.

Can someone who may have a poll for that district let me know who would be the better option to vote for of the two to stop Trump.

[The Free North]

To be honest, it probably will not matter. Your district is one of the strongest Trump regions in the country.

Kasich probably will do better than Cruz in LI, but it wont mean a whole lot.

[Young Conservative]

If you are in  congressional district 3, Kasich has the best chance though neither is close. I would encourage you to vote for Cruz regardless though as I think he is by far the best candidate. According to the optimus poll, Trump is at 55% in Long Island but other have it higher. 

[Mehmentum]

To be honest you're in a pretty hopeless situation.  Emerson has Trump at 71% on Long Island, which would make Nassau and Suffolk as Trump's best counties in the country so far.  For what its worth, I'd guess that Kasich would do better than Cruz.  

Your vote would probably be more meaningful for the off chance that Trump fails to cross 50% statewide.

[Classic Conservative]

NY 3, isn't going to be close at all and Trump will get over 50%. But, I consider voting for Cruz in New York a FU to Trump over the New York Values controversy. Trump will probably get over 50% in your district so your vote will be more symbolic whether you want to flip off Trump by voting for his number one enemy in this race, Cruz or you want to vote for the spoiler who could give Trump the nomination if he stays in past April 26th. Either way it's your choice but, I urge you to Choose Cruz.

[Erc]

From a pure delegate math point of view, Trump is going to win your district anyway; all you need to do is deprive him of a majority (statewide and in your district).  Unlikely on Long Island, but you can try.

From that point of view, a vote for Ben Carson is (almost) as much an anti-Trump vote a a vote for Kasich or Cruz.  (I say almost since, in the unlikely event Trump falls below 50% statewide, a vote for Carson is a wasted vote when divvying up the At-Large totals.)

As for a signal to future states, I don't think it matters that much.  A solid second place finish for Kasich would be useful for him going into the rest of the April 26 states (where Cruz honestly doesn't have much of a chance)...but risks dividing the field going into the crucial Indiana primary.

So, vote for whomever you want.  The tactical aspect of your vote doesn't matter that much, so vote your conscience.  If you're even asking this question, I assume that means you'd rather not vote Cruz, so don't.  He's a scary, despicable man, and if you don't have to vote for him, don't.

[Mr. Morden]

We need to start a call-in show here at the Atlas forum, where people call in with their tactical voting problems, and we offer solutions.

[beaver2.0]

We need to start a call-in show here at the Atlas forum, where people call in with their tactical voting problems, and we offer solutions.

"Yes.  Lincoln Chafee has great chances in New York..."

"...Webb would be a perfect fit for your views, Ms. Teachout..."

"...no, Trump's numbers are sliding.  Rick Perry's numbers are climbing quickly, I'd advise you to get in the Perry-chute..."

[This account no longer in use.]

Well, Ralph Nader did endorse Webb.

[White Trash]

Well, Ralph Nader did endorse Webb.

For real!?

[PeteB]

Well, Ralph Nader did endorse Webb.

For real!?

He did (in 2014).
http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/nader-endorses-jim-webb-for-president-337630275744

He also just endorsed Kasich a few days ago.
https://blog.nader.org/2016/04/15/for-republican-survival%E2%80%95kasich-is-ready/

[jaichind]

The Optimus poll which polls every CD seems to indicate you should vote Kasich for 3rd CD.

[Classic Conservative]

The Optimus poll which polls every CD seems to indicate you should vote Kasich for 3rd CD.

But isn't Opitmus a Kasich hack job since they had Kasich leading in Wisconsin.

[Clark Kent]

On a similar topic, what are the polls in Connecticut looking like? I plan to vote for Kasich, but I will vote for Cruz if I have to.

[Mehmentum]

On a similar topic, what are the polls in Connecticut looking like? I plan to vote for Kasich, but I will vote for Cruz if I have to.

Kasich would be best.

CT is proportional statewide, but becomes WTA if a candidate is over 50%. Trump has a good chance of doing this, but I think it will be close either way.  So for the statewide delegates it doesn't matter if you vote for Cruz or Kasich.

The CD delegates are WTA.  Looking at how Massachusetts voted, I have to imagine that Kasich would have a better shot at beating Trump anywhere in the state.

[Erc]

Apparently all Carson ballots will be voided, so ignore my earlier joking advice; Carson isn't even a viable protest option.

[Mehmentum]

Apparently all Carson ballots will be voided, so ignore my earlier joking advice; Carson isn't even a viable protest option.

So WHY is he on the ballot then?  That's so stupid.

[jaichind]

But isn't Opitmus a Kasich hack job since they had Kasich leading in Wisconsin.

Even is that is true it is clear looking at the poll that CD 3 leans more much toward Kasich than the average CD

[Wisconsin+17]

Signalling has to be Cruz longterm.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Kasich it seems, but it probably doesn't matter at this point if Trump gets over 50%

[Wisconsin+17]

The problem is that Kasich isn't going to win, and every delegate Cruz picks up is one fewer that goes to Trump.