Sabato predicts nailbiter in WV D primary

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll believe the WV and OR numbers when they happen on election day. The other two seem possible though.

[Lief 🗽]

Uh, why wouldn't you believe a toss-up prediction for West Virginia? Look at the results in southwest Pennsylvania and western Maryland for last night. If anything, Clinton is slightly favored there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL at Oregon for being a closed primary but still 30% declaring themselves independents.

Judging by the swings at SW Pennsylvania I roughly calculated around the same percentage for Clinton in West Virginia, 50-52%.

[Xing]

I'd say Indiana seems a bit too low for Clinton, while West Virginia and Oregon seem a bit too high. I'm not sure what to think about Kentucky, I would say that I'll wait for more polls, but Kentucky polling as about as reliable as Michigan polling.

[Ebsy]

Note on Indiana: The % African American has increased in many of the states up to this point, and could there as well.

[Ronnie]

West Virginia is the third oldest state in the US, so it's not surprising at all.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

West Virginia is the third oldest state in the US, so it's not surprising at all.

Well, he won't do as well in WV as the 4th oldest state.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Note on Indiana: The % African American has increased in many of the states up to this point, and could there as well.

I also think that there won't be as much non-Democrats voting this time. In 2008 the Democratic primary was the only game in town but this year Indiana is GOP establishment's last stand against TRUMP.

[Gass3268]

If Clinton gets 50% in WV it means she won by at least 5-7%. The vote for other candidates is going to be massive there.

[IceSpear]

If Clinton gets 50% in WV it means she won by at least 5-7%. The vote for other candidates is going to be massive there.

"Other" got 7% in Oklahoma. It might break double digits in WV.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At this point - I expect IN to be a squeaker, considering that Clinton was campaigning there yesterday tells you that it's probably close. WV should be a Sanders win, I don't expect any kind of blow out, but I'm increasingly of the view that Clinton will win KY. OR should be a 55-45 Sanders win IMHO

[Nhoj]

Clinton is unlikely to win WV with 50% of the vote, winning with about 40% however is entirely possible.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The protest vote in WV will probably be in double digits (under 20, I think) as others have mentioned. I think Bernie can still eke out a win, but it won't be as impressive as previously expected. He might not break 50.

Regardless of who wins, I doubt anyone will break 50%. I wouldn't be surprised if Dave has to add another color for a protest candidate.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The protest vote in WV will probably be in double digits (under 20, I think) as others have mentioned. I think Bernie can still eke out a win, but it won't be as impressive as previously expected. He might not break 50.

Given Hillary had essentially clinched the nomination, it may actually encourage more protest votes.

[Figueira]

LOL at Oregon for being a closed primary but still 30% declaring themselves independents.

Makes sense. If you live in a state with a closed primary, there's no point in registering as an independent.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The protest vote in WV will probably be in double digits (under 20, I think) as others have mentioned. I think Bernie can still eke out a win, but it won't be as impressive as previously expected. He might not break 50.

Given Hillary had essentially clinched the nomination, it may actually encourage more protest votes.

I think that hurts Sanders in WV/IN but helps in more traditional Bernie-friendly places like OR.

[White Trash]

Wow, Appalachia was supposed to be huge area for Sanders. But judging by the results from Pennsyltucky, this may not be as easy.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Hillary wiped the floor with Obama in Appalachia in 2008. Before we start the racism accusations, look at how well she's still doing there. Is it not plausible to suggest that perhaps maybe these voters just remember the Clinton years with fondness and truly believe in her economic policies? Having said that, Sanders has won some Appalachian counties as well with a sizable chunk of protest votes. Looks like his best performance in Appalachia was North Carolina followed by the Southern Tier counties in New York. Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia seem to be Hillary's best Appalachian counties. Looks like a tie in Maryland and Pennsylvania. If that means anything, seems to me like Kentucky and West Virginia will vote like its neighbors, but depends on turnout and how much of a protest vote there is.

Just my two cents. 

[Figueira]

Yeah, Appalachia seems to be a very mixed area this time, probably due to Sanders's advantage among poor white people and Clinton's regional advantage carrying over from the 1990s canceling each other out to an extent.