Bloomberg Purple Strategies college educated voters: Clinton +22

[HillOfANight]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-07-12/college-poll
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rh3I8LK2Ymuc/v0

Overall (Obama won by 2)
Clinton 54 (+22)
Trump 32
Not sure 14

White college educated (Romney won by 14)
Clinton 48 (+11)
Trump 37

62% expect President Clinton vs 22% President Trump

[user12345]

This plus the higher minority support that Hillary gets is pretty much 100% sure to crush Trumps chance of winning.

[Gass3268]

Makes sense, smart people don't like Trump.

[Boston Bread]

This is the main reason for Clinton doing better in likely voter polls than registered voters.

[fldemfunds]

If these numbers are even within the margin of error of this poll on election day, this is landslide territory.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If these numbers are even within the margin of error of this poll on election day, this is landslide territory.

Using the 538 demographic sliders, we get a map that looks something like this:

Clinton by 15 points, with 268 safe EVs, 348 safe+likely, 375 safe+likely+lean.

[dspNY]

No chance for Trump with those numbers. IIRC President Obama won all college educated voters by 2 and lost white college educated voters by 14 in 2012

[fldemfunds]

If these numbers are even within the margin of error of this poll on election day, this is landslide territory.

Using the 538 demographic sliders, we get a map that looks something like this:

Clinton by 15 points, with 268 safe EVs, 348 safe+likely, 375 safe+likely+lean.

With the real possibility that Trump performs worse than Romney with Hispanic voters, it adds a few more states.

[Holmes]

If these numbers are even within the margin of error of this poll on election day, this is landslide territory.

Using the 538 demographic sliders, we get a map that looks something like this:

Clinton by 15 points, with 268 safe EVs, 348 safe+likely, 375 safe+likely+lean.

Interesting that Colorado becomes safe D before Virginia, but that state has one of the highest amounts of college grads in the country, right?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If these numbers are even within the margin of error of this poll on election day, this is landslide territory.

Using the 538 demographic sliders, we get a map that looks something like this:

Clinton by 15 points, with 268 safe EVs, 348 safe+likely, 375 safe+likely+lean.

Interesting that Colorado becomes safe D before Virginia, but that state has one of the highest amounts of college grads in the country, right?

I think Colorado has more college grads than anyone other then Massachusetts.  But yeah, it's a strange result.

[Virginiá]

What effect would the shift of these groups have downballot? If straight ticket voting remains anywhere near 2012, which is likely imo, even if a bit more split tickets this time, that could cause some upsets across the country where previously-Republican college educated voters live. Likewise, influxes of previously-Democratic working class whites could give Republicans a leg up elsewhere. It's also possible these coalition shifts could at least partially stick, as it sometimes has in the past.

If so, wouldn't these lead to some interesting results at the state level? Particularly in the rust belt / Great Lakes states?

[ProudModerate2]

No chance for Trump with those numbers. IIRC President Obama won all college educated voters by 2 and lost white college educated voters by 14 in 2012

Wow.
These new numbers are staggering, compared to the previous Obama/Romney numbers.

PS: Where are Ljube and Seriously ? ... it seems that they always are absent in threads where their orange-candidate is "doing so well." LOL.
I wonder how silly they look and awkward they feel, wearing those horse-blinders ?

Trump is relying on his base to "not think" (or absent of brains from the get-go) and for them to continue to wear those blinders.

[Ebsy]

Wow at the college educated whites numbers.

[Cassius]

Well, they may experience some... buyers remorse, when the other elements of the Clinton coalition come to get them with her tacit approval.

[Wisconsin+17]

Not far off from my map.

[Wisconsin+17]

[Wisconsin+17]

Bumping Hispanic up to 86 percent democrat and dropping turnout of whites without an education down to 52 will produce my map.

[Dr. Arch]

Bumping Hispanic up to 86 percent democrat and dropping turnout of whites without an education down to 52 will produce my map.

Freedom map.

[Lincoln Republican]

We all know that Trump loves the poorly educated.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bumping Hispanic up to 86 percent democrat and dropping turnout of whites without an education down to 52 will produce my map.

Freedom map.

Louisiana, no.  I have them as "leans R" along with the Dakotas, but I think at least South Dakota flips long before Louisiana does.  It is not the 1990s.  A Southern populist Democrat wouldn't even take the state, and LA used to be run by Southern populist Democrats.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Correction above: Leans R, not Leans D, obviously.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Why's this surprising to people? Smart people don't vote for Donald Trump.