Convention bounces

[Crumpets]

I went back and looked at what the previous convention bounces candidates got were to compare this years (in terms of % of vote, not margin). Here's what I found looking at the RCP numbers:


2000 (Bush): +4%
2004 (Bush): +4.4%
2008 (McCain): +5.0%
2012 (Romney): +0.7%
2016 (Trump): ~+4.4%


2000 (Gore): +8%
2004 (Kerry): +2.7%
2008 (Obama): +2.7%
2012 (Obama): +2.3%
2016: (Clinton): ??

So the Republicans seem to have on average bigger, but less consistent bounces. The Democrats seem to have a pretty consistent bump of between 2 and 3 points. Do you think Clinton will be roughly in line with her predecessors?

[Mehmentum]

The sample sizes are too small to extrapolate conclusions from.  One thing I've heard that is interesting is the theory that since there are more undecided voters this cycle than in other recent cycles, this could lead to larger bounces.

[IceSpear]

The sample sizes are too small to extrapolate conclusions from.  One thing I've heard that is interesting is the theory that since there are more undecided voters this cycle than in other recent cycles, this could lead to larger bounces.

Hopefully. I'm sick of all the polls with the fake undecideds and fake Johnson/Stein supporters.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gore got quite a big bump out of his convention didn't he?

[Dr. Arch]

After tonight, I'm confident it'll be +YUGE

[Seriously?]

I thought Kerry got a dead cat bounce, basically flat after his 2004 convention.

I think you're a little out of context though with Kerry. In that cycle, the Dems went first. The others, Republicans did.

My guess is Hillary gets somewhere between 1-3% out of this convention.

[Gass3268]

The lack of a Romney bounce is puzzling.  It's not like the 2012 convention was contested or anything went particularly wrong.  I mean, they had the hurricane issues, but the 2008 RNC had the giant protests and that didn't impact McCain.

I've heard complaints that the massive emphasis on the phrase "you didn't build that" fell flat to most average people.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gore got quite a big bump out of his convention didn't he?

Just to clarify, according to Gallup, Gore got an 8% bounce in 2000.

[Dr. Arch]

Gore got quite a big bump out of his convention didn't he?

Just to clarify, according to Gallup, Gore got an 8% bounce in 2000.

With this exceptional convention, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary hit the high 40s or low 50s by this time next week.

[IceSpear]

The lack of a Romney bounce is puzzling.  It's not like the 2012 convention was contested or anything went particularly wrong.  I mean, they had the hurricane issues, but the 2008 RNC had the giant protests and that didn't impact McCain.

Uh...

[Seriously?]

The lack of a Romney bounce is puzzling.  It's not like the 2012 convention was contested or anything went particularly wrong.  I mean, they had the hurricane issues, but the 2008 RNC had the giant protests and that didn't impact McCain.

The lack of a Romney bounce is not really puzzling given the fact that Romney was a terrible candidate. To run basically a guy that was the grandfather of Obamacare that shipped jobs overseas in a cycle where the economy was fragile at best was a dumb move by the Republicans.

Of course he didn't help himself with the leaked 47% comment.

I was never less proud to be a Republican then when the party ran RINO Romney as the nominee.

[Crumpets]

Gore got quite a big bump out of his convention didn't he?

Just to clarify, according to Gallup, Gore got an 8% bounce in 2000.

I'll add that to the OP. Do you have Bush's numbers from 2000 as well?

[Eraserhead]

I thought Kerry got a dead cat bounce, basically flat after his 2004 convention.

I think you're a little out of context though with Kerry. In that cycle, the Dems went first. The others, Republicans did.

My guess is Hillary gets somewhere between 1-3% out of this convention.

Yeah, I seem to remember Kerry getting basically no bounce and Bush getting a YUGE one. Sad times.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gore got quite a big bump out of his convention didn't he?

Just to clarify, according to Gallup, Gore got an 8% bounce in 2000.

I'll add that to the OP. Do you have Bush's numbers from 2000 as well?

Bush was +4

[Mr. Morden]

Didn't both Kerry and Romney announce their running mates about 2-3 weeks before the convention?  Can someone remind me if either of them got any bounce out of that?  IIRC, Kerry got some poll movement after announcing Edwards, but I can't remember exactly.  In most cases, the running mate is announced just before the convention, and so any bounce out of the running mate is blurred together with the convention bounce.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The sample sizes are too small to extrapolate conclusions from.  One thing I've heard that is interesting is the theory that since there are more undecided voters this cycle than in other recent cycles, this could lead to larger bounces.

Intresting and sounds reasonable! I've never thought about.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans would love to have this election to be analogous to 1960 or 2000 (Americans get tired of the style of the current President and vote in a partisan change in the Presidency). 1952 and 2008 are out of the question because the Incumbent has left no economic, military, or diplomatic disasters with no easy resolution. Trump is no insider like Eisenhower and isn't even a wannabe Insider like Obama.

Trump isn't JFK -- that's beyond any question. A Republican equivalent of JFK would win this year. In view of his excoriation of Barack Obama he is clearly not Barack Obama, either.

1968? As in 1968 this is a true open-seat election with what looks like a Third-Party nominee likely to get millions of popular votes -- but (1) Gary Johnson is not running on a racist regional agenda, and (2) Gary Johnson is more likely to take votes from the challenger Party. 

Democrats would like this to be more like 1988, with Hillary Clinton taking the role of the elder George W. Bush against an over-hyped opponent. At the least Mike Dukakis had some reputation for political problem-solving. With Donald Trump it will all be back-room deals.

 

[Crumpets]

One interesting thing about this year, looking at the RCP average is that unlike years past when both candidates gain on their pre-convention numbers after the conventions, Trump's numbers came right back down to earth. Clinton's bump and Trump's bump were actually pretty much the same size, but Clinton held steady during the RNC, while Trump fell dramatically during and after the DNC.