Prediction: states where margin will be below 1%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2024, 12:43:32 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Prediction: states where margin will be below 1%		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Prediction: states where margin will be below 1%  (Read 421 times)
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 20, 2016, 01:37:21 PM »
« edited: August 20, 2016, 01:43:53 PM by Arbitrage1980 »
There's usually a strong correlation between how tight the overall race is and the # of states where the margin of victory is below 1%.  In 2000 for example, 5 states fell into this category.  And most of these states will not be called until the early morning after election night or even later in some cases.  

I think the states where this could be likely are Georgia, Iowa, as well as Nebraska 2nd district.

I don't see FL, OH, PA, being that close; Hillary wins them easily.  I also think Trump will manage to win Utah, Texas, Missouri, Indiana, by at least 3+ points.  Arizona could be tight, but I see Hillary winning it by around 2 points.  
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,310
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2016, 01:53:53 PM »
Right now, I'm guessing NE-02 and NC. If things improve for Hillary, I could see AZ or GA being within 1%. If the race tightens a bit, IA or OH.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2016, 01:55:07 PM »
2012: 1 (FL)
2008: 2 (MO, NC)
2004: 3 (WI, IA, NM)
2000: 5 (FL, NM, WI, IA, OR)
1996: 1 (KY)
1992: 2 (GA, NC)
1988: 0
1984: 1 (MN)
1980: 3 (MA, TN, AR)
1976: 3 (OR, OH, ME)
1972: 0
1968: 0
1964: 1 (AZ)
1960: 6 (HI, IL, MO, CA, NM, NJ)
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2016, 02:02:06 PM »
South Carolina, maybe Georgia or Missouri
Logged
Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,730
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2016, 02:24:45 PM »
IA, PA
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2016, 02:51:17 PM »
GA, AZ, NE-2.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2016, 02:57:42 PM »
Three of the following:

IA, OH, NC, FL, GA, or AZ.

The way things are going now, I'd bet on NC, AZ, and GA.
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2016, 03:47:42 PM »
Quote from: LLR on August 20, 2016, 02:02:06 PM
South Carolina, maybe Georgia or Missouri
lol
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2016, 03:48:20 PM »
If the race tightens, Ohio. If it doesn't, NE-02 or Arizona.
Logged
OwlRhetoric
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2016, 03:48:59 PM »
Based on recent trends, I'd say Iowa, Ohio, and potentially Florida.
Logged
evergreenarbor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 864


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2016, 04:39:51 PM »
NE-02. If the race tightens a bit, AZ and GA could also be decided by 1% or less.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,682
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2016, 04:55:09 PM »
Maybe just GA and NE-2
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,979
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2016, 05:23:37 PM »
Georgia and Arizona. Possibly Ohio

Clinton eventually breaks free with at least a 3% margin in IA and NV
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.223 seconds with 11 queries.