Politico article: GOP strategists think Trump is toast in CO, VA, NH

[BlueSwan]

I'm sorry to break up the dem lovefest, but while that map looks great for Clinton, it is also based on polls from her leading the race nationally by quite a bit. If Trump takes 4-5 points on Clinton nationally then I wouldn't count on Clinton having an electorate college firewall.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm sorry to break up the dem lovefest, but while that map looks great for Clinton, it is also based on polls from her leading the race nationally by quite a bit. If Trump takes 4-5 points on Clinton nationally then I wouldn't count on Clinton having an electorate college firewall.

"That map" as a comfortable firewall, stands as of today, with trump already making some inroads against Hillary, and not by "her leading the race nationally by quite a bit."
Yes, the firewall begins to break-down if trump can bring the national numbers to exactly even or with a small +1 or +2 lead .... but in my opinion, that will be very difficult for him to do.

[BlueSwan]

I'm sorry to break up the dem lovefest, but while that map looks great for Clinton, it is also based on polls from her leading the race nationally by quite a bit. If Trump takes 4-5 points on Clinton nationally then I wouldn't count on Clinton having an electorate college firewall.

"That map" as a comfortable firewall, stands as of today, with trump already making some inroads against Hillary, and not by "her leading the race nationally by quite a bit."
Yes, the firewall begins to break-down if trump can bring the national numbers to exactly even or with a small +1 or +2 lead .... but in my opinion, that will be very difficult for him to do.

So you are saying that if Clinton wins by 2 points or more nationally, then she wins the election? That is hardly surprising. What I am saying is that if Trump wins nationally, then I wouldn't count on some electoral college firewall to save Clinton. Currently Clinton probably only leads by 2-3 points nationally, while she was leading by 7-8 points a few weeks ago. Maybe this is as close as it gets, but to declare the election effectively over seems extremely premature.

FWIW, I think 538's current assessment of the being somewhere around a 1/3 probability of a Trump win is about right (maybe slightly too high, I would probably put it at around 1/4). And that scares the sh*t out of me.