How likely is this scenario?
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Author Topic: How likely is this scenario?  (Read 332 times)
Senator Spark
Spark498
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« on: September 17, 2016, 09:43:25 AM »
Trump loses NC, while he wins WI or MI
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ursulahx
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2016, 09:44:32 AM »
Much, much less likely than winning NC and losing WI/MI.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2016, 09:46:51 AM »
Quote from: Spark498 on September 17, 2016, 09:43:25 AM
Trump loses NC, while he wins WI or MI

Honestly, next to (reasonably) impossible
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Lachi
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2016, 07:14:05 PM »
In the negative percentages (I know that that isn't actually a real thing, but shh)
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dax00
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2016, 07:23:02 PM »
hmm. using nate silver's polls-plus numbers, 19.7%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 07:34:43 PM »
Quote from: billiards rulebook on September 17, 2016, 07:23:02 PM
hmm. using nate silver's polls-plus numbers, 19.7%

Once again...it's not correct to treat a candidate's winning probability in different states as independent variables, so this type of calculation is misguided.  If Trump does well enough nationally to win WI or MI, he'll very probably be winning NC as well.  The given scenario is probably less likely than Trump winning all three states.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2016, 07:35:32 PM »
Almost impossible.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2016, 10:58:44 AM »
Mr. Drumpf is not winning MI or WI. Just ain't gonna happen.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2016, 11:01:15 AM »
The same chances as Trump winning his own home state and county.
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Breton Racer
Harrytruman48
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2016, 04:31:11 PM »
Not Very, if he wins WI and MI then he is winning with over 320 Electoral Votes.
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