Which state is Hillary more likely to carry?

[Old Man Willow]

The polls for both of these states are all over the place, you'll get one showing a decent Trump lead and then a decent Hillary lead the same day.

[Maxwell]

Florida, but both seem to be trending nicely in her direction compared to the rest of the nation.

[Yank2133]

FL

[elcorazon]

I think she's favored in FL and NC is a tossup, so FL.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5538.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

Clinton +0.6 in FL as of now, Trump +0.3 in NC.

Just based on electoral history, Trump turning off Cubans, and Black enthusiasm may not be as as strong, which is crucial in North Carolina... Going with Florida. David Plouffe also thinks Florida is still good for her.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.7324f135b138

[Xing]

Despite the fact that Florida is very close right now, I'm actually decently confident that Hillary will win it, thanks to favorable demographic trends. (I'm sure no one will mind that I'm saying this about Florida, even though it's a huge problem if I say it about a certain other state.) North Carolina looks like it'll be a nailbiter right now, and things could shift in either direction.

[Anna Komnene]

I think NC is more likely due to African American turnout/support, Trump being toxic, and McCrory.

[Old Man Willow]

The latest PPP polls show Hillary doing slightly better in the NC 2-way than in FL. I think it's very possible that she has a higher floor in NC.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Florida, despite the polls.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Right now, I'd put the battleground in the following tiers:

Tier LOL: Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico
Tier 1: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine-AL
Tier 2: Colorado (Tipping point)
Tier 3: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada
Tier 4: Ohio, Iowa, ME2
Tier 5: Arizona, Georgia, NE2
Tier LOL: Missouri, NE1, Montana, South Dakota, Alaska, Texas, South Carolina

Florida and North Carolina are on the same tier, so they are very, very close.  I'd say Florida, but NC to Clinton and FL to Trump wouldn't surprise me terribly.

African-American turnout vs Latino turnout will be the determining factor.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd guess North Carolina.