Will Trump out-perform Dole?

[ursulahx]

In 1996, Bob Dole got only 40.7% of the national vote, the smallest share of any major-party candidate in the last thirty twenty-four years. As 40% is something of a borderline, will Trump actually manage this much in the age of polarisation, or will he be joining Goldwater and McGovern in the sub-40 group?

But my question is not "will Trump exceed 40%?", but "will Trump exceed 40.72% (Dole's share)?"

[Edited - see below. Somehow I discounted Bush, perhaps because I was thinking of two-way races. Or just being an idiot.]

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

My guess is yes, he wins around 44%; he will win about 186 to 352 to Hillary in the EV.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I think that he will, but nonetheless if third-parties eat up 8% of the vote, Clinton would only need to win by 12 (which hardly seems unreasonable if there are more tapes) to keep him under. So maybe not.

[F_S_USATN]

He most likely will in both PV and EV, albeit narrowly.

He just needs UT, MO, SC, TX, AK and IN to best Dole among the Electoral College.
I think there will be less share of the 3rd party vote so that he creeps over 41%.

[Skye]

Mondale got 40.56% in '84.

[Sir Mohamed]

In terms of popular vote, yes. He’ll end up in the range between 42% and 45% I guess. In terms of electoral vote, he may fall short of 159 EVs, though I guess it will be between 170 and 190.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think Trump's absolute EV floor is 169, and PV floor is 42%.

At the very least, 28% of people voting will be Republican diehards, who would vote for any Republican over any Democrat.  At the very least, 10% of people voting are the Trump true-believers who aren't already diehard Republicans.  And on top of that floor of 38%, you're going to have the "Hillary skeptics" will not accept Clinton under any circumstance.  Not a lot of those, but enough to nudge the needle up.

Add those up, you get 42%.

To get less than 169 EVs, Trump would not just have to lose both AZ and GA, he'd have to lose AK, TX, MO, IN or something else on top of that.  I don't see that happening, given his hard floor.

[ProudModerate2]

Just last week, I was in the belief that trump would be in the 42-ish or 43-ish range come November 8th.
But now after seeing trump's consistent plunge in his national numbers, I wonder if he will be in the 39-ish or 40-ish range.

538 currently shows the orange-haired clown with an average of 39.0% nationally.
And RCP's current 4-way numbers also show trump at exactly  39.0%.
So if the slug stays in the current pit he is in, or worse if his slide continues, he very well may fall below 40.0%.

[Senator Spark]

Yes

[MIKESOWELL]

I think he barely cracks 40 percent nationally. Also, both Mondale and Bush in 1992 got a lower share of the popular vote than Dole.

[RJEvans]

I think it'll be closer to 45% than 40%.

[TDAS04]

Probably by a little bit.  I think he'll lose the PV by something like 7 or 8 points.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yes

Because he's going to win, right?

[ursulahx]

Mondale got 40.56% in '84.

Indeed he did, but Mondale wasn't a Republican. Also, that was over thirty years ago, which is why I gave that time frame in the OP.

[ursulahx]

I think he barely cracks 40 percent nationally. Also, both Mondale and Bush in 1992 got a lower share of the popular vote than Dole.

I'd somehow forgotten about Bush, thank you. My bad.