MT-AL Special Election Poll

[JMT]

There is also a larger thread on this topic, but I wanted to create a poll, similar to the GA-06 poll. I think Greg Gianforte wins in the end, but it will be very close. I think he'll only win by 3-4%. What do you all think?

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm thinking Quist wins. He seems like the kind of down-to-earth populist that could do well in Montana, versus Gianforte who just lost the gubernatorial election and already seems to be pumping tons of outsider money into the race.

[publicunofficial]

Gianforte.

[GlobeSoc]

Quist wins because Gianforte doesn't realize ad oversaturation exists and Quist is a good for the state while Gianforte isn't.

[The Other Castro]

Mind says Gianforte, heart says Quist, gut says I'm hungry.

[Xing]

I'm done with getting my hopes up only to be disappointed in the end. Gianforte wins by about 4.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

As of right now, I'd say that the smart money has to be on Quist. Trump's approval rating is abysmal, a congressional Republicans are even less popular than Trump, Montana is the sort of state where there are loads of Trump voters whose support is very contingent etc. Things could change but, in the here and now, we're in circumstances where the governing party is almost certainly going to lose special elections left and right.

An imperfect analogue can be found in 2007, when Cazayoux and Childers won ultra-GOP seats in special elections. Bill Foster also triumphed against Oberweiss (sp?) in a special election in the Chicagoland suburbs back when IL-14 was very Republican, voting for George W Bush by a ~10 point margin. There's an argument to be made that conditions are very different now. There's not necessarily Trump fatigue, the economy isn't weak etc. Nevertheless, things are very, very dire for Republicans and special elections, like by-elections in the UK, are special occasions where people are more comfortable voting for a candidate of a party they'd otherwise not vote for because they can "send a message".

edit: this does not mean that "people should get their hopes up" or anything like that. Conditions could change, Quist could turn out to be an awful candidate, the Democratic Party could ignore the race etc. However, if this race is pretty typical and Trump still has approval ratings between 38-40%, I think Quist should be favored to win.

[Beet]

Based on Hillary Clinton's 20 point loss in the state, I still have to say Gianforte is favored, 55-45. That is a 10 point Democratic improvement from last autumn.

[Figueira]

Cautiously predicting a Gianforte win here, but at this point I'd call it a tossup honestly.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mind says Gianforte, heart says Quist, gut says I'm hungry.

[Virginiá]

All I can say is that I hope Gianforte doesn't win, and this time not so much because he is a Republican, but more so because he's a wealthy guy who seems obsessed with winning some - any political office. Being Governor and a US House Rep. are not even remotely the same, and I have to wonder what his agenda is.

[Hindsight was 2020]

All I can say is that I hope Gianforte doesn't win, and this time not so much because he is a Republican, but more so because he's a wealthy guy who seems obsessed with winning some - any political office. Being Governor and a US House Rep. are not even remotely the same, and I have to wonder what his agenda is.

Just wait until he loses here an then he is the senate nom against Tester in 2018

[Heisenberg]

All I can say is that I hope Gianforte doesn't win, and this time not so much because he is a Republican, but more so because he's a wealthy guy who seems obsessed with winning some - any political office. Being Governor and a US House Rep. are not even remotely the same, and I have to wonder what his agenda is.

Just wait until he loses here an then he is the senate nom against Tester in 2018

At that point Montana Republicans will have probably learned their lesson. And he's not that great a candidate.

As for his agenda, probably push for promoting his Young Earth schools and museums?

[publicunofficial]

I think Quist is going to get swamped with ads, the DCCC won't provide any support because this doesn't fit their dumb criteria of "winnable seat", and that will be the end of it.

Unless I see a poll that shows Trump's approvals, specifically in Montana, below 40% I just don't think it's gonna happen. Maybe if Ossoff wins his race Dems will start pouring money here too?

[MT Treasurer]

All I can say is that I hope Gianforte doesn't win, and this time not so much because he is a Republican, but more so because he's a wealthy guy who seems obsessed with winning some - any political office. Being Governor and a US House Rep. are not even remotely the same, and I have to wonder what his agenda is.

Just wait until he loses here an then he is the senate nom against Tester in 2018

That's obviously what you want to happen, but sorry - he won't be the nominee.