What is the probability of these potential candidates running for prez in 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

What’s the probability of each of these folks running?

Democrats
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Julian Castro
Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Bill de Blasio
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper
Amy Klobuchar
Dan Malloy
Martin O’Malley
Deval Patrick
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

Republicans
Justin Amash
Ted Cruz
Evan McMullin (as a Republican)
Evan McMullin (as an Independent)
Rand Paul
Donald Trump

[anthonyjg]

What’s the probability of each of these folks running?

Democrats
Joe Biden-1
Cory Booker-60
Sherrod Brown-15
Julian Castro-20
Hillary Clinton-0
Andrew Cuomo-55
Bill de Blasio-25
Tulsi Gabbard-45
Kirsten Gillibrand-30
Kamala Harris-60
John Hickenlooper-15
Amy Klobuchar-15
Dan Malloy-1
Martin O’Malley-60
Deval Patrick-5
Bernie Sanders-1
Elizabeth Warren-50

Republicans
Justin Amash-15
Ted Cruz-15
Evan McMullin (as a Republican)-1
Evan McMullin (as an Independent)-1
Rand Paul-5
Donald Trump-80

[Saint Milei]

Amash won't challenge an incumbent especially when he doesn't command a large following. Cruz, possibly if nothing changes.

[Del Tachi]

Democrats
Joe Biden - 20%
Cory Booker - 80%
Sherrod Brown - 30%
Julian Castro - 20%
Hillary Clinton - 10%
Andrew Cuomo - 50%
Bill de Blasio - 30%
Tulsi Gabbard - 30%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 50%
Kamala Harris - 30%
John Hickenlooper - 20%
Amy Klobuchar - 20%
Dan Malloy - 20%
Martin O’Malley - 50%
Deval Patrick - 50%
Bernie Sanders - 30%
Elizabeth Warren - 50%

Republicans
Justin Amash - 5%
Ted Cruz - 20%
Evan McMullin (as a Republican) - 5%
Evan McMullin (as an Independent) - 10%
Rand Paul - 25%
Donald Trump - 95%

[Mr. Morden]

Amash won't challenge an incumbent especially when he doesn't command a large following. Cruz, possibly if nothing changes.

Ah, see I think that's backwards.  Cruz has much more to lose in challenging Trump.  Cruz could actually conceivably win the nomination in a "normal" year, and challenging Trump could blow up his standing with Republican primary voters, ruining his chances in 2024, 2028, etc.

Amash, meanwhile, is presumably never going to more than a player within one particular faction of the GOP, but challenging Trump could potentially set him up as the new leader of that faction, as it brings his message to a wider audience.  No, he's not going to actually defeat Trump for the nomination, but neither would Cruz.  But if there's disillusionment with Trump, then I don't see why he couldn't pull a Pat Buchanan '92 and get ~30%+ of the vote in many states, and attract an awful lot of new attention to himself and his program.

In any case, Amash has spoken earlier this year about wanting to run for president someday, and he's been the Republican in Congress most critical of Trump since Nov. 8th, so I'd say there's a strong chance that it's on his mind.

[Saint Milei]

Amash won't challenge an incumbent especially when he doesn't command a large following. Cruz, possibly if nothing changes.

Ah, see I think that's backwards.  Cruz has much more to lose in challenging Trump.  Cruz could actually conceivably win the nomination in a "normal" year, and challenging Trump could blow up his standing with Republican primary voters, ruining his chances in 2024, 2028, etc.

Amash, meanwhile, is presumably never going to more than a player within one particular faction of the GOP, but challenging Trump could potentially set him up as the new leader of that faction, as it brings his message to a wider audience.  No, he's not going to actually defeat Trump for the nomination, but neither would Cruz.  But if there's disillusionment with Trump, then I don't see why he couldn't pull a Pat Buchanan '92 and get ~30%+ of the vote in many states, and attract an awful lot of new attention to himself and his program.

In any case, Amash has spoken earlier this year about wanting to run for president someday, and he's been the Republican in Congress most critical of Trump since Nov. 8th, so I'd say there's a strong chance that it's on his mind.

The difference between Cruz and Amash is Cruz has already peaked. He lost many supporters (Many turned to Trump) because of his campaign. Even if he were to win these supporters back, it could only happen if Trump was a complete disaster and Cruz painted himself as Reagan 2.0, which is his entire game. Waiting until 2024 is too long because his voting record continues to deteriorate and he continues to push farther away from fiscal republicanism and be a generic republican.

Amash on the other hand has everything to gain by waiting. He's a young, senior millenial, minority Republican and his following can only grow. He's the intellectual heir to Ron Paul or at least he tries to be. I don't think he just has one faction unless you consider the Liberty faction a faction that is overlapped by both constitutional conservatives and libertarians. Even if it was, the faction will soon hold a significant share in GOP policy. Young millenial Republicans are much closer to Amash's line of thinking and people in that caucus than anyone else. Including Cruz.

I can't see any of them pulling a Pat Buchanan. Maybe it's because Trump basically won running as a Buchanan lol. I don't see Amash pushing himself away from Trump's base even further. Especially after seeing Rand get washed in the primary. That base that supported Trump would have supported Rand had he ran for president the way Ron did.

[America Needs R'hllor]

What’s the probability of each of these folks running?

Democrats
Joe Biden- 15%
Cory Booker- 90%
Sherrod Brown- 40%
Julian Castro- 30%
Hillary Clinton- 5%
Andrew Cuomo- 45%
Bill de Blasio- 25%
Tulsi Gabbard- 35%
Kirsten Gillibrand- 50%
Kamala Harris- 50%
John Hickenlooper- 40%
Amy Klobuchar- 40%
Dan Malloy- 5%
Martin O’Malley- 50%
Deval Patrick- 60%
Bernie Sanders- 15%
Elizabeth Warren- 80%

Republicans
Justin Amash- 30%
Ted Cruz- 15%
Evan McMullin (as a Republican)- 5%
Evan McMullin (as an Independent)- 40%
Rand Paul- 10%
Donald Trump- 99%

[JustinTimeCuber]

What’s the probability of each of these folks running?

Democrats
Joe Biden - 1%
Cory Booker - 20%
Sherrod Brown - 5%
Julian Castro - 10%
Hillary Clinton - 0%
Andrew Cuomo - 2%
Bill de Blasio - 2%
Tulsi Gabbard - 25%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 15%
Kamala Harris - 5%
John Hickenlooper - 2%
Amy Klobuchar - 2%
Dan Malloy - 1%
Martin O’Malley - 2%
Deval Patrick - 5%
Bernie Sanders - 25%
Elizabeth Warren - 40%

Republicans
Justin Amash - 1%
Ted Cruz - 3%
Evan McMullin (as a Republican) - 1%
Evan McMullin (as an Independent) - 25%
Rand Paul - 2%
Donald Trump - 95%

[Medal506]

Democrats
Joe Biden 50%
Cory Booker 80%
Sherrod Brown 40%
Julian Castro 90%
Hillary Clinton 2%
Andrew Cuomo 0%
Bill de Blasio 50%
Tulsi Gabbard 50%
Kirsten Gillibrand 15%
Kamala Harris 50%
John Hickenlooper 50%
Amy Klobuchar 50%
Dan Malloy 0%
Martin O’Malley 20%
Deval Patrick 20%
Bernie Sanders 40%
Elizabeth Warren 70%

Republicans
Justin Amash 10%
Ted Cruz 10%
Evan McMullin (as a Republican) 10%
Evan McMullin (as an Independent) 30%
Rand Paul 20%
Donald Trump 65%

[andrew_c]

Joe Biden <1%
Cory Booker 85%
Sherrod Brown 60%
Julian Castro 80%
Hillary Clinton <1%
Andrew Cuomo 45%
Bill de Blasio 60%
Tulsi Gabbard 35%
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris 75%
John Hickenlooper 50%
Amy Klobuchar 60%
Dan Malloy <1%
Martin O'Malley 20%
Deval Patrick 15%
Bernie Sanders 20%
Elizabeth Warren 85%

Justin Amash 5%
Ted Cruz 30%
Evan McMullin (as a Republican) <5%
Evan McMullin (as an Independent) 25%
Rand Paul 10%
Donald Trump 80%

[President Johnson]

Democrats
Joe Biden..... 1%
Cory Booker........ 50%
Sherrod Brown......... 25%
Julian Castro....... 5%
Hillary Clinton...... <1%
Andrew Cuomo...... 60%
Bill de Blasio..... 5%
Tulsi Gabbard....... 30%
Kirsten Gillibrand...... 2%
Kamala Harris....... 70%
John Hickenlooper...... 50%
Amy Klobuchar...... 20%
Dan Malloy..... 10%
Martin O’Malley..... 10%
Deval Patrick...... 1%
Bernie Sanders..... 5%
Elizabeth Warren..... 50%

Republicans
Justin Amash..... 1%
Ted Cruz..... 20%
Evan McMullin (as a Republican)..... 1%
Evan McMullin (as an Independent)...... 1%
Rand Paul...... 2%
Donald Trump..... 85%