Could Emmanuel Macron be in the second round of the 2017 French election?

[R/H]

In the 2017 French presidential election, the polls of the first round seem to be getting closer between François Fillon (The Republicans, right), Marine Le Pen (National Front, far-right) and Emmanuel Macron (En marche!, center).

Could Emmanuel Macron be qualified for the second round by arriving at least second at the first round?

And could Marine Le Pen being eliminated a the first round?

[peterthlee]

Could? Of course yes. Even Valls could go into the second round if the left rally around him, but unlikely.
Will? Probably not, at least for this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That would be utterly sickening, but yes, he could.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The idea of everyone fretting out about France electing a fascist only for it to elect instead the most blatant snake oil salesman imaginable is so hilarious that part of me really does want it to happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The idea of everyone fretting out about France electing a fascist only for it to elect instead the most blatant snake oil salesman imaginable is so hilarious that part of me really does want it to happen.

The two types of politicians are part of the same trend, though, aren't they?

[Tirnam]

It would require some conditions, a perfect storm scenario:
1- to sustain his momentum, which is real, but the campaign will become more intense in the next months and without a strong organization it may be difficult.
2- Bayrou not running: I heard conflicting reports about this, there were talks about a Fillon-Bayrou pact (Bayrou running to steal votes from Macron in exchange of legislative districts, Bayrou denied), and recently I read that Bayrou has decided to not running. If he doesn't run that left with no candidates in the center.
3- Left primary: so far so good for Macron, the primary will probably be a disaster (low turnout expected, like in the LR primary, the winner will probably clearly on the left part of the PS).

If these conditions are met that could give to Macron a real political space, from Valls supporters to center-right.
Still, I think the threshold to be in the second round will be between 20-25% it will be, in any case, very hard, for Macron ,to reach that level.
But if he manages to be in the second round, no doubt that he will be elected.

[Cassius]

The idea of everyone fretting out about France electing a fascist only for it to elect instead the most blatant snake oil salesman imaginable is so hilarious that part of me really does want it to happen.

The two types of politicians are part of the same trend, though, aren't they?

Didn't this exact scenario happen way back in 2002?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The idea of everyone fretting out about France electing a fascist only for it to elect instead the most blatant snake oil salesman imaginable is so hilarious that part of me really does want it to happen.

The two types of politicians are part of the same trend, though, aren't they?

Didn't this exact scenario happen way back in 2002?

Very different kind of snake oil salesman, but yeah, you could definitely say so.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

It would require some conditions, a perfect storm scenario:
1- to sustain his momentum, which is real, but the campaign will become more intense in the next months and without a strong organization it may be difficult.
2- Bayrou not running: I heard conflicting reports about this, there were talks about a Fillon-Bayrou pact (Bayrou running to steal votes from Macron in exchange of legislative districts, Bayrou denied), and recently I read that Bayrou has decided to not running. If he doesn't run that left with no candidates in the center.
3- Left primary: so far so good for Macron, the primary will probably be a disaster (low turnout expected, like in the LR primary, the winner will probably clearly on the left part of the PS).

If these conditions are met that could give to Macron a real political space, from Valls supporters to center-right.
Still, I think the threshold to be in the second round will be between 20-25% it will be, in any case, very hard, for Macron ,to reach that level.
But if he manages to be in the second round, no doubt that he will be elected.

Montebourg or Hamon really can win the primaries?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would require some conditions, a perfect storm scenario:
1- to sustain his momentum, which is real, but the campaign will become more intense in the next months and without a strong organization it may be difficult.
2- Bayrou not running: I heard conflicting reports about this, there were talks about a Fillon-Bayrou pact (Bayrou running to steal votes from Macron in exchange of legislative districts, Bayrou denied), and recently I read that Bayrou has decided to not running. If he doesn't run that left with no candidates in the center.
3- Left primary: so far so good for Macron, the primary will probably be a disaster (low turnout expected, like in the LR primary, the winner will probably clearly on the left part of the PS).

If these conditions are met that could give to Macron a real political space, from Valls supporters to center-right.
Still, I think the threshold to be in the second round will be between 20-25% it will be, in any case, very hard, for Macron ,to reach that level.
But if he manages to be in the second round, no doubt that he will be elected.

Montebourg or Hamon really can win the primaries?

Hopefully. I'll be rooting for Hamon (can't actually vote for him because I'm being disenfranchised for some reason, but I would if I could).

[DavidB.]

The idea of everyone fretting out about France electing a fascist only for it to elect instead the most blatant snake oil salesman imaginable is so hilarious that part of me really does want it to happen.

Sounds like Hillary vs. Trump to me.

[windjammer]

Not going to happen.


And no he's not Hillary thank you very much.

[Zinneke]

The idea of everyone fretting out about France electing a fascist only for it to elect instead the most blatant snake oil salesman imaginable is so hilarious that part of me really does want it to happen.

Sounds like Hillary vs. Trump to me.

Except Trump's family name recognition is a help, not a hindrance.