Unbelievable poll jumps
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  Unbelievable poll jumps
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Question: Do you think the poll results below are unbelievable?
#1
Yes
#2
No
#3
Not sure
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Unbelievable poll jumps  (Read 763 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: March 25, 2017, 03:53:46 PM »
« edited: March 25, 2017, 05:04:55 PM by Plankton5165 »

Here are the real poll results:

State, result from one poll, result from actual election
  • Virginia - Clinton +19, Clinton +5
  • North Carolina - Clinton +9, Trump +3
  • Minnesota - Clinton +13, Clinton +2
  • Wisconsin - Clinton +16, Trump +1
  • New Hampshire - Clinton +19, Clinton +0.4
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton +15, Trump +1
  • Ohio - Clinton +5, Trump +8
  • Iowa - Clinton +14, Trump +9
  • Kansas - Trump +5, Trump +21
  • Georgia - Clinton +7, Trump +5
  • Louisiana - Trump +7, Trump +20
  • Oregon - Clinton +22, Clinton +11
  • South Carolina - Trump +2, Trump +14
  • Michigan - Clinton +12, Trump +0.2
  • West Virginia - Trump +18, Trump +42
  • Utah - Clinton +2, Trump +19
  • Missouri - Clinton +1, Trump +19
  • Mississippi - Trump +3, Trump +18
  • Popular vote - Clinton +18, Clinton +2

What about this?
  • Colorado - Trump +11, Clinton +5

Plus, in New Jersey, Clinton won by 14 points, an inverse from 1988. She led one poll by 24 points in NJ, another one by just 4.

Also, in NH, in the senate race, Ayotte led one poll by 10 points, Hassan led another poll by 10 points. This is similar to Indiana in 2008, when McCain led one poll by 9 points, and Obama led another by 10 points.

This is definitely true information, guys.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2017, 04:15:10 PM »

To be fair, almost all of those were from the height of her convention bounce.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2017, 04:34:35 PM »

This is not all that surprising.  Dukakis led Bush Sr. coming out of his convention and Bill Clinton led by insane margins both times as well.  If anything, 2012 was anomalous for how stable the polling was with a narrow Obama lead everywhere for 6 months.  That is not historically normal at all.
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