Which states are you most excited to see in 2020 so far?

[OneJ]

Yes, I know it's very early but as you all can see that it doesn't bother me much.

Anyways, this title is self-explanatory. Tell which states you're excited to see it's results the most and if you like to explain why.

Here's my map of interesting states marked green:

-Colorado: I think it's pretty obvious to see which way Virginia would swing... Colorado would likely swing the way Virginia did too, but what I'm more curious about is what would the map look like. Would many rural counties like Las Animas County go back into the D column again? How would college educated whites vote relative to last year's election? How many Latinos (rural ones in particular) would stay with Trump (or the GOP period)? A lot of questions indeed.

-Florida: This bellwether shouldn't be overlooked. There were a lot of big swings to Trump in the Panhandle that countered the swings toward Clinton in the Miami area. Cubans still mostly voted for Trump, but I could see them swinging against the GOP more due to the ongoing trend. One interesting that I just noticed from the exit polls was that the electorate was 35% white college-educated and 27% white non-college, yet those who are college educated voted for Trump 62-35 while those without a degree voted for Trump 66-30. Looks like Clinton couldn't appeal to them much, lol. Also, Seniors stuck for Trump heavily, but looking at approval ratings, that could change. Overall, a lot to look out for in the Everglades state.

-Alaska: Simple. Big swings to Democrats for a good # of years in a row and all of that stopped last year. Trump right now isn't looking too hot in such a cold state, however.

-Arizona: Do I need to explain? Trump's underwhelming victory, Flake News, Arpaio, McCain's popularity vs. Trump's, and ACHA. Enough said although more could be said.

-Texas: Sure, 2016 could be just a "fluke", but I think Trump has the potential to do worse. I'm not saying he would lose Texas, but I am saying that with growing urban areas, accelerating demographic changes, not so good approval ratings right now, and, like other states, an economy that may tank it's quite possible and I am pretty sure people are underestimating his ability to underperform last year's results.

-Nebraska-02: Was somewhat close. As we've seen in 2008, it's possible for a Democrat to win it. Yes it was redistricted but I think Omaha's district can flip in the right conditions.

-Pennsylvania: Right now, Trump's falling here, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The next Democratic nominee should really drive turnout up in Philadelphia, keep a lock on it's suburbs, and pick up some "Trump-pivot" counties like Erie and do better throughout the central portion of the state. It is a lot, but it's worth it.

-Indiana: Indiana is a very elastic state and there are a few signs that Trump could underperform here as well...just how big league would the underperformance be? I sorta wonder if Missouri could behave in a similar way. But anyways, Trump was tied in the Gallup average approvals and there are similar patterns throughout the Midwest that show that he might just do worse. Hopefully, if Indiana does become competitive, hopefully the next Dem nominee would seriously make a play for it.

Now what are your thoughts?

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is based off of the top three potential tickets I am into

If the ticket is Biden/Cortez-Masto I will be most excited about:
Colorado
Nevada
Arizona
Florida
Pennsylvania
Texas

If the ticket is Sherrod Brown/Kamala Harris I will be most excited about:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
North Carolina
Florida

If the ticket is Kamala Harris/Steve Bullock:
North Carolina
Nebraska 2nd
Florida
Pennsylvania
Arizona

ETA: Also Iowa for both Biden and Brown led tickets.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm more interested to see Georgia in 2020. I think it's one of the fastest trending democrat states in the US (lots of people from New England migrating, most young people are minorities, and fast growing Atlanta urban/suburban area).

I don't think Texas is going blue even after 20 years, aside from a huge blowout. I feel like the GOP will be doing much better with hispanics and asians by then. Trump is uniquely quite a bad fit for Texas.

[Sirius_]

It would be very interesting to see if the dems could pull of a win in Texas. It's an uphill battle, but possible.

[PoliticalShelter]

Utah: How will Mormons vote in 2020? So far his disapproval rating in Utah is atrocious and in line with traditionally competitive states like Ohio and Iowa. Will enough of them hold their nose and get behind Trump to allow him to comfortably win the state? Will the inevitable independent conservative do as well as McMullin or better? If so will it be enough to cause the state to actually become a battleground state in 2020?

West Virginia: How will the state react once it's clear that a republican president isn't going to revive the coal industry in the state? Will there be a backlash and a noticeable swing in the state to the Democrats or will the state continue to give Trump its current massive margins?
Maybe we will a situation where the national democrats are too toxic to take advantage of Trumps/GOP broken promise of a revival of coal, but maybe we will see the local West Virginia democrats being able to rejuvenate itself, being able to win back the Governorship and make strong gains in the state legislature.

[Sirius_]

Utah: How will Mormons vote in 2020? So far his disapproval rating in Utah is atrocious and in line with tradionally competitive states like Ohio and Iowa. Will enough of them hold their nose and get behind Trump to allow him to win the state? Will the inevitable independent conservative do as well as McMullen or better? If so will it be enough to cause the state to actually become a battleground state in 2020?

West Virginia: How will the state react once it's clear that a republican president isn't going to revive the coal industry in the state? Will there be a backlash and a noticeable swing in the state to the democrats, or will the state continue to give Trump its current massive margins?
Maybe we will a situation where the national democrats are too toxic to take advantage of Trumps/GOP broken promise of a revival of coal, but maybe we see the local West Virginia democrats being able to rejuvenate itself, being able to win back the Governorship and make strong gains in the state legislature.

No way that I see WV flipping in 2020. The support for Trump is far too high in the state even if he doesn't revive coal. On a local level, WV can be a competitive state. Jim Justice could have a hard time winning re-election as he has upset democrats but probably won't be easily accepted by republicans. If the democrats field a moderate in WV they could win back the governorship, but no far-leftists are winning the state.

[Mr. Smith]

AZ: Swung the hardest left of any state besides UT, took out Arpaio, arguably only didn't flip because of the Obamacare hikes. Will be interesting to see if Maricopa and Yuma will finally flip.

GA: Swung and trended left and barely was more than NC despite almost no moves by either side. Ossoff barely lost in a R+6 area despite Trump barely being in office

MI: Probably a fluke, but want to see if true

NE-02: It's been close quite a few times

NH: Trended R quite a bit, by any old logic should've flipped with NV and given Trump the win even if Hillary had the Rust Belt. It'll be interesting to see if it flips or not.

NC: Polarized as heck, and has trended D 3 times despite the R swing, which arguably only happened in the last week when the hacks started messing with the early vote. Not to mention a far-left ACLU lawyer barely lost to a twice elected incumbent.

NV: A bellwether, and just as reliable as Ohio since 1912 and pretty much had the PV margin spot on. The margin here likely will determine the general mood again. Should've gone R with NV and given Trump the win in spite of The Midwest

PA: It'll be interesting to see if The East will hold off The West. Could see Trump lose like it's '88 again [aka Da' Burbs hold The East up], or it could be a repeat of the last time.

WI: Polarized as heck, like a more D-friendly North Carolina.

UT: Should go a bit more R, question is, how much more?

[Greedo punched first]

[Sirius_]

I think that Nevada is trending more towards democrats.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Warren/Bullock is the Democratic ticket:

• Montana
• West Virginia
• Oklahoma (Warren's birth state)
• Iowa
• Maine's 2nd district
• Utah
• Arizona
• Alaska

[Sirius_]

If Warren/Bullock is the Democratic ticket:

• Montana

• West Virginia

• Oklahoma (Warren's birth state)

• Iowa
• Maine's 2nd district
• Utah
• Arizona
• Alaska

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Warren/Bullock is the Democratic ticket:

• Montana

• West Virginia

• Oklahoma (Warren's birth state)

• Iowa
• Maine's 2nd district
• Utah
• Arizona
• Alaska

I'm not saying that she would win either state, but  it'd be interesting to see how well she will play there, if these states swing and trend towards the Democrats, if she will win a county.

[AN63093]

Light green/cyan- NC

Every year NC is probably the hardest state in the US to predict in terms of swing/trend/margin, so it's always interesting to me to see what unfolds.

Light red/blue

These states are closed to maxed out, if not already maxed out, so they're due for a small swing, if not a trend, in the opposite direction.  Will be curious to see if the parties can find yet more votes in these states or if they've reached their ceiling.

Red/Blue

These states will probably trend towards the party indicated in the future, but I'm not sure yet if it'll happen this cycle or there will be "bounce back."  With AZ, it had the fourth highest D swing in the country, so I'm wondering if it got a little "ahead of itself" for one cycle and could swing back R (even if just <1%).  I'm more sure that GA will swing D, though I'm not sure about trend.

With the New England states, every county but 1 in these states (except NH, which had 2 counties) swung and trended R so I'm wondering if we'll see the same thing I'm thinking with AZ (i.e., there'll be a slight swing 'back' towards the Dems, in this case).  If not, then this area is trending R quicker than I thought.


Dark Green

KS both swung and trended D which was one of the oddest things to happen in '16.  So this is probably #1 on my list of states to watch.


All the other states I've already got a pretty good idea how they'll swing so they are less interesting.  Trend is a lot harder to predict at this time since it's too early to predict how the national PV will move (though I suspect the Dems will win it).

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

It obviously depends on the candidate, but potentially interesting states for me include:

Alaska: Alaska has been trending blue for multiple election cycles now, and it's always been a little bizarre politically overall (lots of successful independent candidates, etc.). Many believe that Alaska will become a competitive state within 15-20 years, so I'm curious whether as to this will actually come to fruition or not.

Arizona: For somewhat obvious reasons. Arizona is shaping up to be a competitive state in 2020, but it has to proven whether Democrats can exceed Clinton's numbers enough to actually win there, even if they improve on her national margin, or if Democrats has hit their ceiling there for now. I would assume that the right Democratic candidate could certainly have a solid chance of victory here, but I won't believe it until I see it.

Texas/Georgia: Neither of these states will likely be particularly competitive in 2020 (although Georgia could be with a perfect Democratic candidate), but they notably trended left in 2016. I want to see whether they will continue to move left at a similar rate, for the sake of predicting whether either or both states could be purely swing states by 2028 or so.

Utah: I'm including Utah just if there is an independent who ran last year, like McMullin (I don't know if McMullin personally is planning to run again), who can garner a large percent of the vote and create some drama.

Iowa: Iowa had one of the largest swings/trends of any state in 2016, sharply turning to the right. In '00, '04, '08, and '12, Iowa was slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole, but in '16, it was significantly more Republican (approx. R+10.5, I don't remember the exact number). That's a very large swing, but I don't believe that Iowa is a lost case for Democrats yet. Obama won Iowa by over 10% in '08 and over 5% in '12, and Hillary was arguably a particularly poor candidate for the state, so it's still easily plausible that the right Democrat could make Iowa competitive again. Long story short, I want to know if Iowa has shifted to the right and is there to stay for a while, or if 2016 was more of a fluke and it will return to its more competitive status in 2020.

ME-02: More or less the same reason as I included Iowa.

New Hampshire: It trended to the right in 2016, but many on this forum believe NH has the potential to become a Likely/Safe D state within a matter of several years. I'm curious as to whether NH will move back to being more Democratic than the nation as a whole or continue on this new trajectory (I believe the former is more likely, but we'll see).

West Virginia: There very well may be not much to see in West Virginia in 2020, given that Trump is still decently popular there, but Republicans may have hit their ceiling here in national races and the state may be due for a bounce to the left.

[mileslunn]

I would say the following.

Arizona - With its large Latino population, will the trend towards the Democrats continue

Georgia - With growing non-white population as well as Northeastern transplants will it also continue to trend Democrat

Texas - While unlikely to flip, it will be interesting to watch

Iowa and Ohio - Was Trump's 9 point win a flash in the pan or part of a larger trend making those more GOP friendly, otherwise following the path of Missouri a decade ago.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania - Were those one offs or part of a longer term trend.

Florida - Has always been very close in every election since 1992 regardless of which way it votes, will this continue or does it start to break a certain way.

[MT Treasurer]

[AGA]

Basically, I want to see if states that showed large trends continue those trends or turn towards the other direction.

[TML]

It depends on how much the project margin of victory is.

If the projected result is a Republican win or a close Democratic win: NV, MN, NH, WI, MI, PA, & FL
If the projected result is a modest Democratic win: OH, IA, NC, ME-02, AZ
If the projected result is a Democratic landslide: GA, NE-02, TX, MT, MO, IN